While it has been 32 years since the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) came right back to win the Kentucky Derby (G1), this year’s field for Keeneland’s signature race could be the most competitive, and perhaps key, Derby ‘prep’ in 2024.
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner DORNOCH and his arch rival, Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner SIERRA LEONE are in the 11-horse field along with an intriguing, mixed bag of some promising three-year-olds.
The nation’s leading trainers are once again well represented in a major sophomore stakes race with Chad Brown, Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher accounting for more than half the starters. Cox has at least one top Derby contender already in Catching Freedom, winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Pletcher trainee Fierceness just won the Grade 1 Florida Derby by more than 13 lengths.
But it is Sierra Leone, trained by Chad Brown, who will be favoured in the 1 1/8 mile Blue Grass, which offers 100 Derby points to the winner. Sierra Leone, a confirmed stretch-running colt, was edged by Dornoch by a scant nose when they met as two-year-olds on Dec. 2 in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct.
This Saturday, they meet again.
The track: Keeneland
Keeneland opens its 2024 season on Friday, April 5 and if last year is any indication, how the track plays might just add to the handicapping puzzle. Last year, inside speed horses did well on opening day of the Keeneland meeting (the Friday) but on Blue Grass day, the track was slower and favoured outside horses and runners from off the pace.
Not every track has a bias every day ‒ or any day, for that matter ‒ but it is always a good idea to pay attention to as many of the early races on a Keeneland card as possible.
The Blue Grass is a two-turn race, so post positions outside of nine or 10 could spell a wide trip for a horse, so consider that in your handicapping.
Foundation
If there is one characteristic similar to most of the recent Derby prep race winners, it is that they would all have plenty of experience. Both Blue Grass favourites Dornoch and Sierra Leone are ‘battle tested.’ Dornoch, who is, incidentally, a full brother to last year’s Derby winner Mage, has four races as a juvenile and two route wins including a maiden score at Keeneland.
Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in his 2024 debut, admittedly over just four rivals, but the good news is, it was not an overly tough return. The son of Good Magic (who won the Blue Grass in 2018) also has some tactical speed in a field that does not have a lot of apparent early pace.
Sierra Leone, who cost a garish $2.3 million as a yearling at auction, raced just twice as a juvenile, winning a one-mile maiden race before just missing in the Remsen Stakes. But the stretch runner faced plenty of adversity in his season debut, the Risen Star, which was run over a very sloppy track. The son of Gun Runner and jockey Tyler Gaffalione came from almost 10 lengths behind an average early pace to win the 1 1/8 mile race by half a length. The third-place finisher, Catching Freedom, came back to win the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Conversely, Blue Grass entrant Top Conor, a $1 million auction purchase, has had just one career start and that was a maiden win at one mile at Gulfstream on Feb. 17. It was an impressive effort with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure, but this will be his first attempt around two turns against seasoned rivals.
E-Speed and Beyer Figures
The table below shows the Equibase Speed Figures and Beyer Figures of the last 20 Blue Grass winners. An E-Speed number of 100 or higher points out the top contenders and there are four of those in the Blue Grass. Dornoch, Just a Touch, Epic Ride and Encino all have triple-digit E-Speed Figures, while Sierra Leone has a 99.
The top three Beyer Figure horses in the field (from races at route distances) are Dornoch, Just a Touch and Sierra Leone, all with 90s. Recent maiden winner Be You, trained by Pletcher, shortened to seven furlongs for a Gulfstream Park race on March 2 and won with a hefty 96 Beyer Figure.
Tapeta to Dirt
Blue Grass entrants who can be considered secondary contenders include Seize the Grey, Epic Ride and Encino, but all three are coming off good efforts on the all-weather track at Turfway Park. Seize the Grey was third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) but has won twice on dirt.
Epic Ride, a winner of two of his four career races, all on Tapeta, and Encino, a winner of two of three starts, have never tried the dirt. Of those two, Encino, a son of Derby winner Nyquist and out of a mare whose brother, Street Sense, won the Derby, seems capable of handling the surface switch.
Going forward
The last horse to win the Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991.
Street Sense, the 2007 Derby winner, was the last horse to run in the Blue Grass prior to a Derby victory. In 2022, Zandon, trained by Chad Brown, won the Blue Grass and finished third in Kentucky.
Putting it all together
At 3-to-1 in the morning line, Dornoch (#4) looks like a good play in the Blue Grass, while Sierra Leone might be hindered by a possible slow pace. Players of exactas and trifectas won’t get much value if they box both favourites, so pick one and get creative with your bet365 wagering:
$3 Exacta Box #4 (Dornoch), #6 (Just a Touch) and #11 (Encino)
By the Numbers
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – last 20 winners
Best Beyer since 2000: Sinister Minister 116*
Best Equibase Speed # since 2000: Sinister Minister 125 *
(*Sinister Minister’s freak performance in 2006 saw him lead through wild pace fractions of 45.80, 1:09.80 over a speed-favouring Keeneland track. The colt never won again in eight more starts)
(Note: The Blue Grass Stakes was held on Polytrack from 2007 to 2014)
100th Running of the $1 Million Toyota Blue Grass (G1)
3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles
Weight: 123 lbs. * Race 10 * Post time: 5:52 p.m. ET
