Sunday’s $500,000 Woodbine Oaks, which drew a field of 12 including two maidens, figures to go through the five-pack from the Mark Casse barn. Casse, who sent out his 4,000th career winner on July 17 at Colonial Downs, summed it up like this:
“With all our fillies, the question is the mile and an eighth,” said Casse, who has won four Oaks races. “It’s going to be how they settle early. If any of them settle, they are going to run well – they are going to be tough.”
And therein lies the rub. All of the Casse fillies have only ever won their races by being on the lead from the get-go, whether they have sprinted or raced at a route distance. Only five of the 12 entrants have won a race at 1 1/16 miles and only one has tried the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Oaks, Reveler’s Row, who was second.
The Oaks is race 9 on the 10-race card which also includes the $150,000 Plate Trial Stakes, a key race ahead of The King’s Plate (August 16), the $200,000 Canadian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association (G2T), and the $175,000 bet365 Connaught Cup (G2T).
The Oaks, a historical and important race for Canadian-bred fillies, is also a poignant race on the Woodbine schedule, as famous jockey Avelino Gomez passed away from injuries suffered in a spill in the 1980 Canadian Oaks when riding Swisskin. The Avelino Gomez Award used to be presented on Oaks day.
The Oaks, won in recent years by Kin’s Concerto (over eventual King’s Plate winner Caitlinhergrtness), Elysian Field (second in the Plate), Moira (won the Plate) does not appear to have the strength of past fields.
Three of the 12 have won a stakes race: SHIFTY (Medaglia d’Oro), who could be favoured based on her 81 and 85 Beyer Speed Figures, ARISTELLA, who won a slow edition of the Princess Elizabeth Stakes last year, and the speedy WINTERBERRY, who has never tried a route distance.
A look at the Princess Elizabeth Stakes last year suggests that Shifty, Aristella and Crystal Visions made be able to win at the 1 1/8 mile distance:
The former, one of two entrants in the race for D J Stables and one of four bred by David Anderson’s Anderson Farms, was wrangled off the pace in the Elizabeth, was wide and in traffic and still tried to rally in the late stages. She easily won her season opener at 7 furlongs on the pace, but then was once again wrangled back last time when third to Winterberry in the Fury Stakes.
ARISTELLA, trained by Rachel Halden for US based Flying Zee Racing Stables LLC, won the Princess Elizabeth, also from off the slow pace and wide. She has landed on the edges in two sprints this year. She has the red-hot Rafael Hernandez riding.
CRYSTAL VISIONS is a Bee Jersey filly for Stuart Simon and Brent McLellan and she was third in the Princess Elizabeth. She was second to a good US-bred filly in her latest and is first-time with Lasix for the Oaks.
There is plenty of pedigree power in the Oaks. NO TIME, by Not This Time and a half-sister to two Grade 1 winners, is a logical contender if she can overcome a possible contested pace. John Velazquez, who is in town to ride for Wesley Ward in the two graded stakes on grass, will ride Gary Barber’s filly who was fourth in the ‘open’ Selene Stakes (G3) last time after fighting her rider Sahin Civaci for half the race.
One of the intriguing horses in the Oaks field is REVELER’S ROW, who has only had two starts, but she won her debut at seven furlongs and then finished second in an optional claiming race at 1 1/8 miles to the older mare Aspen Dawn after leading most of the way.
A $37,000 ‘short’ yearling purchase, Reveler’s Row’s fourth dam is the great DAHLIA. Elliott Logan’s TEC Racing owns the Mucho Macho Man filly and Katerina Vassilieva trains. Reveler’s Row was supplemented to the Oaks before her 1 1/8 mile outing.
The last horse to win the Oaks in her third career race was Holy Helena in 2017.
Casse said this about his five entrants:
“I think No Time is a sleeper,” said Casse of the filly who has amassed $105,473 in purse earnings. “I think she has a very good pedigree – both her and Shifty have very nice pedigrees. She is not easy to ride. She is another one that if she is happy, she is going to be tough. Johnny Velazquez is going to ride her for us.”
“Shifty is probably the most talented [of the group],” said Casse. “She has her quirks. If she can settle and get into a good rhythm, she will be tough. She’s very talented.”
WAR SIGNAL: “She ran well in the Marine,” said Casse. “It was against colts, and I thought she hung in there. She is a horse who I would have said this winter was our best chance to win the Oaks. She disappointed me a little bit in the Ruling Angel, but her race in the Marine was pretty good. She is another one who likes to be up close to the lead.”
ELLA IT IS: “She is really [the] only one of my fillies in this race who can settle.
“She is interesting in that we thought all along that she was a sprinter,” said Casse, of the filly with $168,030 in purse earnings. “But she has really matured. She was scratched twice before she ever ran because of her antics. I talked to Patrick (jockey, Husbands) the other day after he worked her, and he told me that she is a different horse. I know that he is excited about her running.
“Winterberry may keep going. She is coming into the Oaks better than ever. I am still not 100 per cent sure she can get the mile and an eighth, but she is very talented.”
“Every rider is going to do their own thing. I am not giving any instructions. I think the break is going to be very important and how each rider can get their horse to settle going into the first turn.”
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