NOTORIOUS GANGSTER has a very good chance to win the 166th King’s Plate on Saturday, August 16 at Woodbine. Mark Dodson’s homebred colt by US champion Classic Empire from the mare Sister Nova by Verrazano is trained by Hall of Famer JOSIE CARROLL, a three-time Plate winner.
Carroll is pleased about Notorious Gangster since the dark bay medium-sized colt is “very uncomplicated” and “athletic.”
“He’s a confident horse,” said Carroll, who first saw the colt as a yearling. “He was small at that time, but he had a great walk.”
Right from his first career race, Notorious Gangster has been keen on his job. He was third in his career debut at six furlongs, won second time out at 6 1/2 furlongs, and, after not taking to grass, won the $251,000 Coronation Futurity, the big race for Canadian-bred juveniles with a smart 82 Beyer Speed Figure.
This season, the colt was a closing third in the Woodstock, won the Queenston at seven furlongs, and then was somewhat delayed when second in the Plate Trial to Sedburys Ghost. Fraser Aebly has ridden him each time, including twice as an apprentice.
The colt has a super resumé.
But what about his Coronation Futurity win? It has been 50 years since Colonel Charles Baker’s NORCLIFFE, trained by Roger Attfield, won the Coronation Futurity and then followed up with a Plate win the next year.
No horse has done it since.
That is hard to believe, since a two-year-old winning a 1 1/8 mile race like the Coronation figures to be sitting in a good spot to be a factor in the Plate the next year. Norcliffe set a stakes record in the Coronation of 1:49.
There have been many horses who have won the Coronation and run well in the Plate. Overskate, Regal Classic, A Bit o’ Gold, Aheadbyacentury, Avie’s Flatter – they were all second in the Plate.
But in the last 20 years, Coronation winners in the Plate had:
- one second-place finish (Up With the Birds)
- a third (Asserting Bear)
- 10 unplaced
- 6 didn’t run
Like any ‘trend’ (shall we even mention jinx?), it is certain that a Coronation Futurity winner will again win the Plate. It’s similar to the ‘Apollo curse’ at the Kentucky Derby, in which a horse that did not race at two never won the Derby from 1882. That is, until 2018 when Justify did it.
When trainers are posed the question about the Coronation trend, most can’t really explain it.
“I have no idea. Logistically, the horses have gone two turns, you know they’ll get the distance [of the Plate],” said Carroll. “Maybe now that the Plate is later than it was, that will change things.”
Mark Casse, who won three Coronation Futuritys with horses that did not come close to winning the Plate, had no explanation.
Others, such as Renée Kierans, whose stalls will house this year’s Plate contender Tom’s Magic, say the Coronation winner is often an advanced two-year-old. “The Coronation Futurity is often won by a two-year-old who is more advanced than the others, but then the next year, those other juveniles often catch up as three-year-olds.”
Notorious Gangster has done essentially everything right on Tapeta in two years and has proven he is even better as a sophomore this year. There’s a good chance this colt can put an end to that very odd trend.
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