Time only matters in…
For the most part, time does matter in horse racing, just ask the makers of speed figures and handicappers and most horsepeople. If your horse is not as fast as his rivals according to the ‘numbers’ he will not win.
But it is not an exact science. Let’s face it, these are living and breathing animals who can’t tell us if they woke up on the wrong side of the stall on a certain morning. Or didn’t like dirt in their face in that race or didn’t like how the surface was feeling under their feet that day.
As some 15-17 Canadian-bred 3-year-olds put on the finishing touches for their date in the 162nd Queen’s Plate on August 22, jockey agents, owners, trainers and fans are already scrutinizing what is an intriguing betting race. With the withdrawal of the favoured Weyburn, the race for the $1 million is a scramble.
There are some nice horses in the field and perhaps a star emerges from the race, but going into the Plate the group is on the modest side.
And once again, a filly looks to be one of the favourites. In 2020, Curlin’s Voyage, the Oaks winner was favoured and finished fifth and in 2017 and 2019 the fillies Holy Helena and Wonder Gadot were favoured and won. In fact, 37 fillies have won the Plate.
One of the most discussed points for this race’s Plate field is the results of the Plate Trial and Woodbine Oaks, both run on August 1 at 1 1/8 miles and pegged at an 83 and 82 winning Beyer Speed Figure by Daily Racing Form. But they were two very different races.
The Plate Trial had just four entrants and the final time run by AVOMAN (Old Forester) was recorded as 1:52.84.
Six races later, MUNNYFOR RO (Munnings) won the Oaks in a time of 1:50.31, yet has a lower Beyer Figure than the Trial winner.
Figure maker Randy Moss talked about the assigning of Beyer Figures for the two races.
“Looking at the results and margins, one would expect the races to have figures that were comparable. Of course, sometimes expectations and reality don’t align.
“The six-furlong split in the Plate Trial (1:15.93) was 3 3/5 seconds slower than in the Oaks (1:12.35) , and no matter how much faster the horses finished [in the Trial], it’s simply not possible to make up that much time in the last three furlongs. So we were forced to ‘project’ a figure for the Trial based on expectations.”
The fractions for the two races:
Trial – 25.35, 51.06, 1:15.93 1:40.10 1:52.84 – with a 12.74 last eighth
Oaks – 24.35 48.41 1:12.35 1:37.47 1:50.31- last eighth 12.84
The fractions and final times of the two races are so different it really is a perplexing puzzle. Truffle King, whose 76 last year was his best Beyer Figure, was awarded an 81 in his first race with blinkers. The Trial number seems about fair, but perhaps the Oaks number deserves to be higher?
AVOMAN was coming off an 83 Beyer Figure when third in a very fast race against older horses won by Rogue Affair. It was the gelding’s first start of the year. Last year he won a two-turn, 7 1/2 furlong inner turf race, the Bull Page Stakes, with a 70 Beyer Figure. While it still remains to be seen if Avoman is entirely comfortable in a longer race, he did edge past maiden Truffle King and hold off H C Holiday.
MUNNYFOR RO was easy to like in the Woodbine Oaks based on a good second-place finish in the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, an open race, with a 75 Beyer Figure. Her 82 Beyer in the Oaks is a career best and she is a confirmed route horse having won her maiden at 1 1/8 miles on turf.
Come Plate day, it would not be surprising to see MUNNYFOR RO as one of the favourites while Avoman up in the 8- to 10-to-1 range. Munnyfor Ro has to be supplemented to the Plate at a cost of $25,000.
Interestingly, the day before the Trial and Oaks a maiden race at 1 1/8 miles went in 24.4, 48.83, 1:13.38, 1:28.75, 1:51.43, last eighth in 12.68, and was won by a front-runner, Punch Hard, although the runner-up COLLECTIVE FORCE was likely best after a dreadful trip.
The race was given a 73 Beyer Figure on a slow surface.
Collective Force, a lightly-raced Tiznow gelding, is owned by Weyburn’s owners, Chiefswood Stable, and he would have to be supplemented to the Plate for $25,000.
The average winning Beyer Figure for the Plate since 2000 is in the 90s and might not be reached by this year’s Plate winner, but those horses looking like they can post an 80-88 will be the main contenders.
Yr – Plate Winner – Plate Winning Beyer – Plate Trial/Oaks notes
2020 MIGHTY HEART 99 Plate Trial went in 89, Clayton
2019 ONE BAD BOY 94 Trial – Pay for Peace – 71
2018 WONDER GADOT 95 Trial, Telekinesis 88
2017 -HOLY HELENA 96.. ran a 94 Oaks.. Plate Trial – 82
2016 SIR DUDLEY DIGGES 85 Trial…Amis Gizmo 83
2015 SHAMAN GHOST 87 had run 86 in Marine
2014 LEXIE LOU 91 Posted a 95 in Oaks win – Trial – We Miss Artie 85
2013 MIDNIGHT ARIA 101 Trial 88
2012 STRAIT OF DOVE 98. Trial
2011 INGLORIOUS 99 Trial 90 (Check Your Soul)
2010 BIG RED MIKE 92 91 (Big Red Mike)
2009 EYE OF THE LEOPARD 92 85 (Eye of the Leopard)
2008 NOT BOURBON 93 88 (Not Bourbon)
2007 MIKE FOX 90 88 (Jiggs Coz)
2006 EDENWOLD 94 81 (Pipers Thunder)
2005 WILD DESERT 92 92 (Dance With Ravens)
2004 NIIGON 97 97 (A Bit O’Gold)
2003 WANDO 111 95 (Mobil)
2002 T J’S LUCKY MOON 86 89 (Shaws Creek)
2001 DANCETHRUTH’N 94 96 (Win City)
2000 SCATTER THE GOLD 92 89 (Pete’s Sake)
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