147th Preakness Stakes Analysis: Could It Be This Simple?

The 147th Preakness Stakes (G1) may have lost a bit of its buzz when Kentucky Derby (GI) winner Rich Strike was declared out of the race to await the 1 1/2 mile Belmont, but there remains some intrigue in the nine-horse field. There is a purse of $1.5 million available for the 1 3/16 miles on the dirt. Post time for the Preakness is 7:01 p.m. Saturday. The race will be televised live by NBC.

EPICENTER will be heavily favoured and deservedly so, as this Not This Time colt did everything right in the Derby and arguably ran the best race despite being passed very late by Rich Strike. Epicenter’s 100 Beyer Figure from the Derby and 102 from his Louisiana Derby (G2) are the only triple-digit Beyer Figures to be found from any race run by the nine entrants and is a “double advantage” horse in the field.

If Epicenter is just as sharp and strong as he was two weeks ago, he will be tough to defeat. Interestingly, he had a workout between the Derby and the Preakness.

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Should Epicenter decline in form a bit, perhaps the Derby took a lot out of him, there are several interesting entrants.

SIMPLIFICATION, who landed less than three lengths behind Rich Strike and Epicenter in the Derby after a wide trip off the turn for home, could post a mild upset. This Florida-bred son of Not This Time won big in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth before a bit of a strange, messy journey in the Florida Derby (G1). John Velazquez takes over as Jose Ortiz stays with EARLY VOTING.

Early Voting was kept out of the Derby by trainer Chad Brown. He has done that move before and won the Preakness with Cloud Computing. Early Voting, by Gun Runner. Early Voting is a free-running type who was a neck away from being unbeaten all three races. He shows a bullet 5-furlong workout on May 13.

SECRET OATH, the filly who cruised to victory in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), ran a new top Beyer Figure in that win, a 94. She is a closer who may not have a lot of pace to chase, but she is a tough filly and is in the hunt for a share.

CREATIVE MINISTER was supplemented for $150,000 by his owner to run in this race. The colt ran fast in a recent allowance win on May 7 despite an awkward start from the gate. Canadian-owned FENWICK is the longest shot in the race but he may play a role on the early pace. Another front-runner is likely to be ARMAGNAC, an allowance winner who lost his only two stakes attempts by a total of 39 lengths. HAPPY JACK and SKIPPINGLONGSTOCKING are longshots also.

Jen’s Picks:

1 – SIMPLIFICATION

2 – EPICENTER

3 – EARLY VOTING

4 – SECRET OATH

Post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds

1. Simplification, Antonio Sano, John Velazquez, 6-1

2. Creative Minister, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 10-1

3. Fenwick, Kevin McKathan, Florent Geroux , 50-1

4. Secret Oath, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 9-2

5. Early Voting, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 7-2

6. Happy Jack, Doug O’Neill, Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1