150th Kentucky Derby: Dornoch, Deterministic Take Next Steps

The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2 fizzled due to a litany of scratches including impressive debut winner Speak Easy, who got loose pre-race. A field of five included DORNOCH, not only a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage but winner of the Remsen Stakes late last year. Dornoch, making his season debut for trainer Danny Gargan and a host of co-owners, was 1-to-5 at post time and scored a workmanlike win at 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.64. He earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure.

In rainy New York, DETERMINISTIC was well prepared by trainer Christophe Clement and team to win the Gotham Stakes (G3) by two lengths with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure (read more below).

Dornoch exited the Fountain of Youth so well that his trainer Danny Gargan expects to decide on the hot Triple Crown prospect’s next start “towards the end of the week.

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“He’s great. He looked good this morning. He cooled out nice. We’re happy with him. He ate up well,” Gargan said. “We’re pleased with him.”

Following Dornoch’s professional performance. Gargan said the colt would likely return in either the March 30 Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the April 6 Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.

The late scratch of Speak Easy and the Saturday morning scratches of Locked and Victory Avenue prompted Gargan to alter his game plan for the Fountain of Youth.

“We wanted to sit behind horses. The scratches hurt. We just decided to go ahead and take control of the race. He did it pretty handily,” Gargan said. “He didn’t have to run too hard, so we’ll have plenty of horse. We should be able to come back quick and be fine. We’re just got to keep moving and stay lucky.”

Dornoch broke cleanly from the starting gate, shook off the early rail challenge from Le Dom Bro to take a lead approaching the backstretch that he would never relinquish while requiring mild encouragement from jockey Luis Saez.

The son of Good Magic entered the Fountain of Youth off a gutsy triumph in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, where he nosed out Sierra Leone, who came back to win the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. Dornoch, who currently ranks second in Kentucky Derby qualifying points, established himself as a prime Triple Crown prospect with his victory in the Fountain of Youth.

Dornoch is owned by West Paces Racing LLC, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC and Two Eight Racing LLC and Pine Racing Stables.

“It’s exciting, but you need to stay focused on the task at hand and just be thankful you’re in this position,” Gargan said. “Working for guys who have been in the Derby and stuff, you just have to remember the way everything went and stay in your lane, not try to get too creative, and just let the horse get you there.”

Vicente Stella Stables LLC’s Le Dom Bro, who made an inside challenge at the top of the stretch before settling for second at 27-1, also exited the Fountain of Youth in good order. A start in the Florida Derby is likely.

“I’d say it’s 90 percent for the Florida Derby,” said Vicente Stella, whose son of Ontario stallion Mucho Macho Man is trained by Eniel Cordero.

If Dornoch and Le Dom Bro do run in the Florida Derby, one horse waiting for them will likely be Hades. The undefeated winner of the Holy Bull (G3) worked four furlongs Sunday morning at Gulfstream in :48.64. It was his third work since winning the Holy Bull Feb. 3.

Deterministic Pours It On in the Rain

The weather has been downright frightful at many racetracks across the United States this winter and March 2 at Aqueduct was particularly gloomy. Rain fell all afternoon on a day that had many graded stakes races including the $300,000 Gotham (G3) for three-year-olds at one mile. A large field was assembled and it was St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable’s Deterministic who emerged the winner in his second career race and first since August.

Trained by Christophe Clement, the Liam’s Map colt entered the one-turn mile for sophomores from a seven-month layoff following his successful debut in August at Saratoga Race Course and showed no signs of rust with a stylish score under Joel Rosario.

“He came back in good order. We’re very much enjoying the fact that he won the Gotham yesterday. It was a very strong performance and we’re happy with the way he looks this morning,” Clement said. “We will probably ship him to Florida this week. He’s done very well in Florida and the weather is more under control. He’s been here for the last three months and training well here, so no need to change too much at the moment.”

Deterministic worked a bullet five-eighths in 1:01.80 on February 17 over the Payson Park Training Center dirt in company with well-regarded New York-bred Pandagate, who subsequently shipped to New York and won the state-bred Gander here last weekend. That breeze completed a series of four bullet works at Payson Park for Deterministic, who put in an easy five-eighths in 1:02 flat on February 24 at the Indiantown, Florida, facility before heading north.

Deterministic was off slow and rallied from last-of-eight and five lengths off the pace to secure a half-length win in his Spa debut sprinting seven furlongs under Rosario. He handled the slight stretch-out in distance with aplomb on Saturday, stalking just off the pace from third position through three-quarters in 1:10.94 over the sloppy and sealed going. He rallied wide through the turn and took aim at the leading El Grande O, eventually surging past his New York-bred foe with an inside move just before the sixteenth pole en route to victory in a final time of 1:36.37.

The Brad Cox-trained maiden winner Just a Touch closed to finish second with El Grande O in third in front of fourth-place Maximus Meridius and the Clement-trained Capital Idea in fifth secure to 50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on offer to the top five finishers.

Clement said Deterministic, a $625,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase, will be nominated for a number of Derby preps, including the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino on April 6 at the Big A. The historic nine-furlong test for sophomores awards 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top-five finishers.

“No decision whatsoever made for the next start,” Clement said. “At the moment, the only worry is the wellbeing of the horse and we’ll go from there. We’ll get him to a work and the work will tell us what to do with him.”

Clement, who won the 2014 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes with Tonalist, said he would appreciate saddling his first Derby starter provided his charge is in with a shout.

“To run, no – to win, yes,” said Clement, with a laugh. “Running is not very exciting, but winning is. If he was to go that route, that would be very exciting. At the moment, we need to evaluate a next start and I believe, most probably, he would need to run before the Derby.

“It was a good performance,” Clement added. “I don’t want to put pressure on anybody – just common sense, bring him back, apply regular horsemanship and go from there.”

Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, Deterministic is out of the winning Speightstown mare Giulio’s Jewel – his turf stakes-winning third dam, Amelia, produced graded stakes-winning turfers Rainha Da Bateria, Assateague and Kindergarden Kid.