150th Kentucky Derby: Sierra Leone Current Fave at 7 to 1

Although no points races were contested over the weekend, there was wagering action aplenty in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), and the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (KOFW).

Sierra Leone established himself as the overall favorite for the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) by closing at 7-1. The mutuel field of “All Others,” which had been the most popular choice through the first four pools, slipped to the third choice at 11-1 in Pool 5.

Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone first emerged as the individual 6-1 favorite in Pool 4, thanks to his late-running victory in the Risen Star (G2). Bettors took the opportunity to back him again before his final prep, the April 6 Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.

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Last year’s juvenile champion, Fierceness, gained renewed interest in Pool 5, finishing as the 9-1 second favorite. The Todd Pletcher pupil ranked as the 8-1 individual favorite in Pools 2 and 3, following his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) conquest, but his comeback third in the Holy Bull (G3) cost him support in Pool 4, where he wound up at 16-1. As he trains forwardly for the March 30 Florida Derby (G1), and a potential rebound, Fierceness began to look more attractive again to the market.

Japan’s Forever Young and Timberlake battled it out to round out the top five. Each concluded at 12-1, with Forever Young just shading Timberlake in the win pool ($15,449 compared to $15,128). Forever Young, who just preserved his perfect record in the Saudi Derby (G3), is pursuing Derby points in the UAE Derby (G2) on Dubai World Cup (G1) night. Timberlake, the winner of last fall’s Champagne (G1) and the Rebel (G2) in his reappearance, is eyeing either the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby (G1).

Dornoch, who outdueled Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) and won a scratch-reduced Fountain of Youth (G2), ultimately inched up to 13-1. The full brother to 2023 Derby star Mage was a 9-1 chance in Pool 4.

Next came the 16-1 trio of Deterministic, Mystik Dan, and Conquest Warrior, the only others to trade inside of 20-1.

Deterministic captured the Gotham (G3) off a layoff since his Saratoga debut score, a rather bold move for trainer Christophe Clement, who is mulling his next target. Southwest (G3) romper Mystik Dan is bound for the Arkansas Derby. Conquest Warrior, impressive winner of his past two at Gulfstream Park, is expected in the Florida Derby. So is Holy Bull upsetter Hades, a 20-1 chance in Pool 5.

Here are the final odds for KDFW Pool 5:

#1 Agate Road 38-1
#2 Be You 160-1
#3 Born Noble 154-1
#4 Catching Freedom 26-1
#5 Common Defense 62-1
#6 Conquest Warrior 16-1
#7 Corporate Power 183-1
#8 Deterministic 16-1
#9 Domestic Product 33-1
#10 Dornoch 13-1
#11 El Grande O 138-1
#12 Encino 58-1
#13 Endlessly 59-1
#14 Epic Ride 189-1
#15 Fierceness 9-1
#16 Forever Young 12-1
#17 Hades 20-1
#18 Hall of Fame 37-1
#19 Honor Marie 35-1
#20 Just a Touch 31-1
#21 Just Steel 137-1
#22 Lat Long 468-1
#23 Le Dom Bro 263-1
#24 Liberal Arts 45-1
#25 Mystik Dan 16-1
#26 Nash 105-1
#27 No More Time 144-1
#28 Resilience 128-1
#29 Seize the Grey 33-1
#30 Sierra Leone 7-1
#31 Stronghold 48-1
#32 The Wine Steward 131-1
#33 Timberlake 12-1
#34 Time for Truth 231-1
#35 Top Conor 98-1
#36 Track Phantom 23-1
#37 Tuscan Gold 81-1
#38 Tuscan Sky 36-1
#39 Uncle Heavy 80-1
#40 “All Others” 11-1

In the Oaks Future Wager, undefeated allowance winner Impel received sustained support throughout from a morning line of 10-1. Late money came to drive her into 7-1 at the close, nipping Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) champion Just F Y I, who had been topping the market until pushed out to 8-1.

Just F Y I was bet down from a 12-1 morning line, despite her absence since the Breeders’ Cup. The Bill Mott filly missed her intended comeback in the March 2 Davona Dale (G2) due to a fever.

Impel, who rolled in an Oaklawn Park allowance following her Fair Grounds debut, has yet to be tested at the stakes level. The Juddmonte homebred has the Fantasy (G3) or Ashland (G1) as her key options to earn Oaks points.

Impel was preferred to her Brad Cox stablemate, Tarifa, the 8-1 morning-line favorite who drifted to about double that before ultimately rallying as the 11-1 third choice. Intricate, the Golden Rod (G2) romper who was runner-up to Tarifa in the Rachel Alexandra (G2), shortened from a 20-1 opening into 12-1. The duo will renew rivalry in Saturday’s Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

In a year when the fillies’ picture is still sorting itself out, the “All Other Three-Year-Old Fillies” option was likewise backed into 12-1 from a morning line price of 20-1.

The respective second and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Jody’s Pride and Candied, narrowly reversed positions in the Oaks Future. Both finished at 13-1, but Candied got more late money as she edged Jody’s Pride in the win pool. Unlike Just F Y I and Candied, Jody’s Pride has resumed this term with a victory in the Busher S.

Here are the final odds for the only Oaks Future:

#1 All Things Go 113-1
#2 Alpine Princess 52-1
#3 Band of Gold 92-1
#4 Candied 13-1
#5 Carmelina 86-1
#6 Denim and Pearls 49-1
#7 Fiona’s Magic 32-1
#8 Ghalia Princess 45-1
#9 Gin Gin 79-1
#10 Gun Song 33-1
#11 Halina’s Forte 29-1
#12 Impel 7-1
#13 Into Champagne 85-1
#14 Intricate 12-1
#15 Jody’s Pride 13-1
#16 Just F Y I 8-1
#17 Kopion 19-1
#18 Lemon Muffin 16-1
#19 Leslie’s Rose 31-1
#20 Life Talk 74-1
#21 Maxisuperfly 100-1
#22 Midsummer March 164-1
#23 My Mane Squeeze 32-1
#24 Neom Beach 214-1
#25 Our Pretty Woman 31-1
#26 Perfect Shot 166-1
#27 Power Squeeze 77-1
#28 Pretty Ana 218-1
#29 Scalable 148-1
#30 She’s a Tempest 261-1
#31 Sistina Chapel 530-1
#32 Tapit Jenallie 180-1
#33 Tarifa 11-1
#34 Thorpedo Anna 17-1
#35 Ultimate Authority 354-1
#36 V V’s Dream 85-1
#37 Ways and Means 19-1
#38 West Omaha 61-1
#39 West Sunset 131-1
#40 “All Others” 12-1
Complete details, including will-pays and exacta probables, will be available on the Future Wager page at kentuckyderby.com.

Churchill Downs reported Pool 5 handle of $334,581 ($246,076 in the Win pool and $85,506 in Exactas), while the Oaks Future attracted $69,717 ($48,334 in the Win pool and $21,384 in Exactas). A total of $53,971 was wagered on the Oaks/Derby Double, which challenges bettors to pick the winners of both races.

The sixth and final KDFW will be held April 4-6 – a Thursday-Saturday run that concludes before the Derby points races on April 6.

Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Points/ Earnings

Timberlake … 66 … $1,053,750
Dornoch … 60 … $425,500
Domestic Product … 60 … $260,500
Sierra Leone … 55 … $290,000
Track Phantom … 55 … $260,000
Deterministic … 50 … $165,000
No More Time … 45 … $194,380
Fierceness … 36 … $1,069,500
El Grande O … 30 … $151,000
Common Defense … 27 … $233,450
Stronghold … 25 … $292,800
Catching Freedom … 25 … $202,000
Le Dom Bro … 25 … $106,000 (late Triple Crown nominee)
Just a Touch … 25 … $60,000
Mystik Dan … 21 … $418,800
Hades … 20 … $161,900
Uncle Heavy … 20 … $137,500
Encino … 20 … $87,536
Liberal Arts … 19 … $220,325
Mc Vay … 19 … $48,000
Northern Flame … 18 … $138,000
West Saratoga … 17 … $217,640
Scatify … 16 … $42,000
Just Steel … 15 … $334,545
Honor Marie … 15 … $248,455
Frankie’s Empire … 15 … $138,100 (not a Triple Crown nominee)
Grand Mo the First … 15 … $71,250
Nash … 13 … $50,000

Kentucky Oaks
Jody’s Pride … 65 … $532,500
Fiona’s Magic … 60 … $163,510
Lemon Muffin … 50 … $210,000
Tarifa … 50 … $180,000
Manama Gold … 50 … $90,000 (not Oaks nominated)
Gin Gin … 41 … $130,708
Just F Y I … 40 … $1,260,000
West Omaha … 40 … $110,000
Intricate … 35 … $300,455
Tapit Jenallie … 29 … $151,100
Into Champagne … 25 … $100,360
Perfect Shot … 25 … $60,000
Where’s My Ring … 25 … $52,000
Carmelina … 25 … $10,000
V V’s Dream … 23 … $370,105
Band of Gold … 21 … $137,000
She’s a Tempest … 21 … $24,000
Power Squeeze … 20 … $152,070
Recharge … 20 … $148,500
Maxisuperfly … 20 … $88,280
Kopion … 20 … $80,000
Alpine Princess … 20 … $79,500