The prospect of a lot of rain in Louisville, KY on Saturday, May 3 is just another curveball thrown at bettors who will try and solve the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1), once again with 20 horses in the field.
On Friday morning, GRANDE, trained by Todd Pletcher, was scratched. On Thursday, RODRIGUEZ was scratched from the race, one of two horses for trainer Bob Baffert, and BAEZA, who was second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) drew in from the also-eligible list. Baeza didn’t have the points to get into the body of the Derby early on. but many believed the son of McKinzie deserved to be in the race. Race record aside, Baeza is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Belmont Stakes winner Dornach.
Rich Strike drew in from the also eligible list to win the Derby a few years ago at very long odds. Baeza could be as low as 8-to-1.
The first year it rained on Kentucky Derby Day was 1890 and the track was listed “muddy.” The track has been listed as fast on 105 Derby Days (70%) despite at least a bit of precipitation for 71 of 150 editions (47.3%).
Wet track Kentucky Derbys:
Good – 11 (Unbridled, 1990)
Muddy – 7 (Sunday Silence, 1989)
Sloppy – 9 (Country House, 2019, via DQ of Maximum Security)
Wet-Fast – 1 (Always Dreaming, 2017)
Speed runners do well in the slop, it’s a basic handicapping fact, since not many horses love to rally from off the pace while getting mud splashed in their face.
SANDMAN (Tapit) is the pick from this corner based on his very nice development this year for trainer MARK CASSE, who has won virtually every major race except for the Derby. Yes, Sandman tends to be slow early and that might not be great, but there should be a good pace up front. His rider is Jose Ortiz, who is one of the world’s best. Tapit has yet to sire a Derby winner, but is certainly due.
JOURNALISM (Curlin) is favoured and this impressive colt really looks like the most likely winner. He has speed, stamina and looks set to cycle forward and run another top speed figure. Trainer Mike McCarthy could win his first Derby, as could jockey Umberto Rispoli.
The speed battle will include CITIZEN BULL, last year’s champion two-year-old in the US, AMERICAN PROMISE, EAST AVENUE and OWEN ALMIGHTY. Even though not all of those gun to the lead, the pace should be strong.
My longshots for exotic wagers are:
2 – NEOEQUOS – distance is a big question, but he will like a wet track.
9 – BURNHAM SQUARE – gets better with every race. Made a great appearance all week.
19 – CHUNK OF GOLD – a flyer based on mud breeding and his improving form.
21 – BAEZA – a must use as he drew in from AE list.
Check out our notes on the Derby Field
Post/Horse/Odds/Jockey/Trainer/Comments
1 Citizen Bull — 20-1 / Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert – Strong in his workout in 58 and change this week. On or near the pace from the rail, distance a question
2 Neoequos — 30-1 / Flavien Prat, Saffie Joseph Jr. – Florida-bred has won at 5 and 6 furlongs. A pace runner who was a fading third in Florida Derby. His first four dams are all Ontario bred. Will like slop.
3 Final Gambit — 30-1 / Luan Machado, Brad Cox – Stretch runner went from a 63 Beyer Figure to a 90 in the Jack Ruby Steaks
4 Rodriguez — 12-1 / Mike Smith, Bob Baffert – Both wins were on the lead, won Wood Memorial with 101 Beyer Figure
5 American Promise — 30-1 / Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas – Loved him in the Virginia Derby when predicted front-runner, more speed in the field
6 Admire Daytona (JPN) — 30-1 / Christophe Lemaire, Yukihioro Kato – Japanese colt won UAE Derby, stalker
7 Luxor Cafe — 15-1 / Joao Moreira, Noriyuki Hori – Japanese colt has won four straight, Kentucky-bred by American Pharoah
8 Journalism — 3-1 / Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy – 4 for 5, 102 and 108 Beyers in last 2, easily won SA Derby
9 Burnham Square — 12-1 / Brian Hernandez Jr., Ian Wilkes – Blue Grass winner is the buzz horse this week, incredible workouts
10 Grande — 20-1 / John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher – lightly raced, wide when 2nd to Rodriguez
11 Flying Mohawk — 30-1 / Joe Ramos, Whit Beckman – Blinkers come off, he was 2nd in Jeff Ruby on Tapeta, first dirt try, low Beyers
12 East Avenue — 20-1 / Manny Franco, Brendan P. Walsh – Star in 2024, sent hard in Blue Grass and almost held on
13 Publisher — 20-1 / Irad Ortiz Jr., Steve Asmussen – maiden is a stretch runner from the family of Canadian HOY Biofuel. Trainer Asmussen 0 for 26 in the Derby.
14 Tiztastic — 20-1 / Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen – Louisiana Derby (G2) winner is a stretch runner, trainer seeks first Derby win
15 Render Judgment — 30-1 / Julien Leparoux, Kenny McPeek – Co-owned by the late country star Toby Keith, colt has one win
16 Coal Battle — 30-1 / Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley – warm and fuzzy story (trainer is 75 and it’s his first Derby), distance is big question. He’s an eager type early in his races.
17 Sandman — 6-1 / Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse – easily predicted to pop up with a top effort when winning the Arkansas Derby (G1); a horse has never won from this post. He’s a stretch runner.
18 Sovereignty — 5-1 / Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott – Monster in training this week. Peaked with a 95 Beyer two starts back, should have a big move in a bounce back from Florida Derby
19 Chunk of Gold — 30-1 / Jareth Loveberry, Ethan West – $2,500 purchase has looked great in works at Turfway Park, recently second in Louisiana Derby
20 Owen Almighty — 30-1 / Javier Castellano, Brian Lynch – was put back into the Derby field and then drew post 20. Tampa Bay Derby winner is a pace runner.
21 Baeza — Flavien Prat, John Shirreffs – 2nd to Journalism when leading late in the Santa Anita Derby; modest workout on Monday.
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