Millions of dollars will be bet on the King’s Plate today at Woodbine, and the great news for the race in 2025 is that as a handicapping puzzle, the 166th edition of the Canadian classic is a gem.
A year ago there was a heavy Plate favourite in My Boy Prince and that Mark Casse-trained colt just about hung on to win. At the finish is the yet another filly who got the victory, Caitlinhergrtness, who posted an 88 Beyer Speed Figure to win, following up a second-place finish in the Woodbine Oaks.
A filly is the morning line favourite for this year’s 166th edition. No Time ran fast when she won the Oaks – 88.
Jerry Brown of the Thorograph sheets annually summarizes some of the contenders for the Plate for Canadian Thoroughbred each year, but this year’s field has him scratching his head.
“It’s a complicated race,” said Brown. “They are evenly matched, and I really have no opinion.”
Indeed according Brown’s Thorograph sheets, and 1 1/4 mile distance aside, eight of the 13 entrants have similar best figures.
No Time has the big new top number (7) from her Oaks win, possibly putting her at risk for a regression. This filly has been inconsistent throughout her career, with nice wins but then dull outings. But if she runs back to the Oaks, she will be right there.
Tom’s Magic, Sedburys Ghost, Ashley’s Archer, Notorious Gangster, Mansetti, William T and Runaway Again all are projected at an 8 or 9.
Tom’s Magic, a two-time stakes winner on grass, is bred to enjoy the Tapeta, although he has never raced on it. He posted bullet works on the all-weather track at Fair Hill this spring for trainer Michael Stidham and also worked on it at Turfway last year. The Justify colt has the breeding and the looks; his breeders, Sean and Dorothy Fitzhenry, are due to breed a Plate winner and jockey Rafael Hernandez has won more stakes than any rider this year at Woodbine.
Ashley’s Archer has been carefully brought along, as he has had issues with his feet. His 79 Beyer Figure (11 TG) from his latest was fair. He was third in the 9 furlong Coronation Futurity last year.
Notorious Gangster has all the tools, breeding, form, connections and the distance is perfect for him, while it may not be for others. Just one thing: what about that Coronation Futurity streak? The Gangster seeks to become the first horse since 1976 to win the Plate after having won the Futurity.
Mansetti comes in off a longer layoff than others and he won a open graded race, the Marine, in his most recent race. He popped with a huge effort in the 6 furlong Woodstock in April, but wasn’t as fast in the Marine.
Sedburys Ghost is very much in the picture off his 85 Beyer in the Plate Trial. He just needs to duplicate it to be in the hunt.
William T has had a better number with every race and could go forward again. He worked fast (too fast, said trainer Don MacRae) with older graded stakes winner Cruden Bay recently, but any more progression makes him solid.
Runaway Again, from the shrewd hands of trainer Sid Attard, won his debut by more than nine lengths, at a route distance, with an 8 TG number. He is an Adena Springs-bred and could be any kind, but it’s tough to recommend a horse who has raced just once.
Of the others, Scorching needs a push to to get into the top three mix, but it’s his third race off the layoff, often a peak race for a horse, and he could progress since he wasn’t even 100% fit when second in the Marine, according to trainer John Charalambous.
Faber adds blinkers and that might help his stretch runner who will love the distance. He, too, needs some speed figure help.
The race set-up is a bit hard to read: who goes to the lead and will it be a modest pace? That is very possible.
The distance is a major concern for many and their riders will have to resist making a move like My Boy Prince did a year ago.
Some stats on recent Plates are below.
I landed this way:
11 – TOM’S MAGIC
4 – SCORCHING
3 – NOTORIOUS GANGSTER
2- WILLIAM T
1 – MANSETTI
Year – Winner / Style / Previous Race / Plate Trial result
2024 – CAITLYNHERGRNTESS (88) / Stalk / 2nd Oaks 80 – Plate Trial (My Boy Prince. 87)
2023 – PARAMOUNT PRINCE (93) / Speed / won Trial (81)
2022 – MOIRA (97) / Stalk / Plate Trial won by Clayton in (89)
2021 – SAFE CONDUCT (88) / Speed / Plate Trial won by Avoman (83)
2020 – MIGHTY HEART (99) / Speed / Ran a 80 in previous race
2019 – ONE BAY BOY (94) / Speed / Plate Trial won by Pay for Peace (71)
2018 – WONDER GADOT (95) / Rally / Plate Trial won by Telekinesis (88)
2017 – HOLY HELENA (96) / Stalk / Ran a 94 to win the Oaks in last start
2016 – SIR DUDLEY DIGGS (85) / Stalk / Plate trial won by Amis Gizmo (83)
2015 – SHAMAN GHOST (85) / Rally / Ran an 86 to win the G3 Marine in last start
2014 – LEXIE LOU (91) / Rally / Ran a 95 to win Oaks
2013 – MIDNIGHT ARIA (101) / Speed / Plate Trial won by Dynamic Sky (88)
2012 – STRAIT OF DOVER (98) / Speed / Ran a 93 to win Marine (Listed) in last start
2011 – INGLORIOUSS (99) / Rally / Plate Trial won by Check You Soul (90)
2010 – BIG RED MIKE (92) / Speed / Ran a 91 to win Plate Trial in last start
2009 – EYE OF THE LEOPARD (92) / Stalk / Ran an 85 to win Plate Trial in last start
2008 – NOT BOURBON (93) / Press / Ran an 88 to win Plate Trial in last start
2007 – MIKE FOX (90) / Rally / Plate Trial won by Jiggs Coz (88)
2006 – EDENWOLD (94) / Speed / Plate Trial won by Pipers Thunder (81)
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