As we start to sift through 14 races and some 180 horses in the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday and Saturday, the usual question comes up – how good are these European horses?
Future Stars Friday, 5 races for 2-year-olds, has a bunch of youngsters in the turf races from Europe with the best ones in the one mile races. In race 7, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, SEALIWAY, NEW MANDATE, CADILLAC and BATTLEGROUND are all colts to watch.
Race 9, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf, the undefeated CAMPANELLE actually won her maiden at Gulfstream but has been overseas for Wesley Ward and her rivals include NAZUNA, who has looked good galloping at Keeneland, OODANATTA and MISS AMULET.
There are 6 milers in the Breeders’ Cup Mile with SISKIN making his final career start and he won the Irish 2000 Guineas. KAMEKO won the 2000 Guineas in England, CIRCUS MAXIMUS was 4th in this race last year.
It is MAGICAL, a 3 time Group 1 winner this year and a strong contender for Horse of the Year, who is top notch and she is in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. There are 6 Euros in the 10 horse field and note that jockey RYAN MOORE took Magical over MOGUL.
From HorseRacingNation, award winning writer from Racing Post Nicholas Godfrey tells us about each Euro-horse in the grass races at Breeders’ Cup.
Here is a snippet:
Turf
Let’s be frank here. With three U.S. horses at single figures, the Breeders’ Cup morning line looks a touch fanciful. With no disrespect intended, the likes of Channel Maker and Arklow have been slammed at previous Breeders’ Cups, and even last year’s runner-up United faces nothing like this level of competition on the West Coast. As far as British betting firms are concerned, you have to get past four European horses before you get to the first American.
But which one? Well, Magical is a really solid favorite, as good as ever at age 5 and the only horse to beat now-retired Ghaiyyath this season — and Ghaiyyath is world No. 1 for 2020, according to official international handicappers. If you are worried about Magical’s third place at Ascot on her most recent outing in the British Champion Stakes (G1), then forgive her. The ground was awful, and she raced too far back before staying on behind a couple of high-class, heavy-ground specialists.
However, the Aga Khan’s Tarnawa offers a persuasive alternative. She is nearly the market leader in Europe, having come to herself as a 4-year-old and recording a couple eye-catching Group 1 successes in France in her last two races. International pioneer Dermot Weld is on record saying this is his best-ever chance of finally breaking his Breeders’ Cup maiden, and he has taken the chance of running the daughter of Shamardal against the colts instead of easier pickings in the Filly & Mare Turf.
Of the others, Mogul is finally beginning to live up his $4.4 million price tag. He was quietly fancied for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before his trainer’s runners had to be scratched over contaminated foodstuffs. Below form on soft ground last time, Lord North steps up in trip having produced one of the performances of the summer at Royal Ascot.
Best bet
Overall, the American team will be doing well to keep this sort of talent out of the winner’s circle. In the expectation that she might be missed on the pari-mutuel, I would be siding with Tarnawa as a potential value play against Magical, though there is no way I would be putting anyone off the latter. And yes, I am getting splinters from sitting on the fence.
Nicholas Godfrey is a former winner of the Joe Hirsch Award for Outstanding Newspaper Writing at the Breeders’ Cup
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CANADA’S CHANCES
The 4 Canadian horses – bred, raced or trained – are GRETZKY THE GREAT, DIRTY DANGLE, STARSHIP JUBILEE and CHANNEL MAKER.
DIRTY DANGLE, a filly who is unbeaten at Woodbine and recently sold by Ralph Biamonte and team to Gary Barber and Eclipse Thoroughbreds, is in tough in the first Cup race Friday, the Juvenile Turf Sprint. She also had trouble with gate schooling on Wednesday.
GRETZKY THE GREAT has post 11 in the second Breeders’ Cup race Friday, the Juvenile Turf. The Ontario-bred comes off a win in the Summer Stakes (G1) around one turn and the 6 1/2 furlong Soaring Free. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and should handle 2 turns it will just be a matter of avoiding a wide trip from his post. His tactical speed helps and he may well be in the hunt for a good placing.
Everyone’s darling STARSHIP JUBILEE has post 1 in the Filly & Mare Turf and she is up against tough mares RUSHING FALL (co-bred by Toronto’s John Fielding) and speedy MEAN MARY. She figures to work out a nice trip under new rider Florent Geroux and she cannot be discounted.
CHANNEL MAKER, aiming to be the richest Canadian-bred with a win in the $4 million Turf, comes off a pair of his best career races and is looking to better three previous tries in Breeders’ Cup races. He is in tough.
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