Breeders’ Cup Saturday has 9 races and some of the best match-ups of top horses we have seen in years.
After the first few races on the Keeneland main track were won by horses on the pace, it started to look like there was a bias in motion but it was not the case. If horses went fast enough on the pace, or were in a contested battle, off-the-pace horses did just fine.
Jockey Christophe Soumillon is off his mounts as he tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. One of his better mounts is the filly TARNAWA in the Turf and Colin Keane will rider that one.
Race 4- Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint – Post time 12:02
Just 8 gals at 7 furlongs with the scratch of #4 Inthemidstofbiz and this will be a full-on speedfest between (2) GAMINE, who should enjoy cutting back in distance off her third-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and last year’s Oaks winner (7) SERENGETI EMPRESS, who will be retired after the race.
The sneaky one? (3) COME DANCING off some great workouts and a short freshening.
Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – 5 1/2 furlongs
Fourteen will fly to the first turn and the two speed horses have the two inside posts.
Two stalkers that look good are (3) IMPRIMIS, who has just 15 career races and is a 6-year-old but he has won both 2020 starts and he is in top form.
(7) LEINSTER has won 2 straight stakes at Keeneland and has Luis Saez on board.
(12) GOT STORMY is a classy gal who should be closer to the pace and she has been doing well since switching to sprinting.
(1) BIG RUNNUER might be the quickest one of the two inside speed horses (Just Might is the other) and he is an improving horse.
Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Hmm, what to do with the fleet Knicks Go who freaked in an allowance race off a long layoff on the Keeneland dirt? Brad Cox, with 2 wins in Cup races Friday, must be respected with what he has done with this colt, but this is a Grade 1.
(1) ART COLLECTOR won the Blue Grass at Keeneland, is a 3-year-old and he just regressed a bit in the Preakness. He can bounce back.
(12) OWENDALE is the ‘other’ Brad Cox horse and he will be charging late. I like that he is cutting back in distance.
(10) COMPLEXITY ran a 110 Beyer in the Kelso when he beat 3 rivals, can he work out a speed trip from the 10 post?
(8) PIRATE’S PUNCH who comes in off two straight graded stakes wins (disqualified from one) and is on a roll for trainer Grant Forster. He could put up a 100 Beyer Figure, perhaps a bit higher.
(2) SHARP SAMURAI has not won in 2 years and usually races on grass, but he is a steady competitor.
Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf 1 3/16 miles
Starship Jubilee, trained by trainer Kevin Attard, exercises in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland Racetrack in Lexington, Kentucky on November 4, 2020.
We are all cheering for (1) STARSHIP JUBILEE and she is sure to have a good trip from the rail behind the speedy Mean Mary.
‘Jubee’ has a chance but I think a European mare may win this:
(7) TEREBELLUM should like firm turf and she is a Group 2 winner for John Gosden with Frankie Dettori riding. She adds Lasix.
(3) PEACEFUL is an Aidan O’Brien gal who is a Group 1 winner getting Lasix and she too may like the firm going.
(1) STARSHIP JUBILEE should be able to get into the frame and (11) AUDARYA is a French filly who is very good.
Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint
(11) DIAMOND OOPS looked great winning the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland in his latest and racing 6 furlongs on the dirt is what he does best.
(2) CZ ROCKET has 5 wins in a row and is 2 for 2 at Keeneland.
(8) FIRENZE FIRE has still got it and he is trained these days by Kelly Breen.
I will always back a horse getting in off the also eligible list so (15) LASTING LEGACY is my big longshot play.
Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Mile
Tough race to sort out as the Euros are good and the US horses might be too sharp for them.
(2) KAMEKO looked great in a spin around the Keeneland turf after arriving from England. He won the 2000 Guineas in June, tailed off a bit but comes off a Group 2 win.
(1) CIRCUS MAXIMUS was 4th in this race last year.
(13) FACTOR THIS is a tough speedster from the Brad Cox barn.
(10) HALLADAY is on a roll with 4 wins in his last 6 races.
Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff
(5) SWISS SKYDIVER‘S battle with Authentic in the Preakness was remarkable. She won that race and simply is a bear.
(10) MONOMOY GIRL won the Distaff in 2018 and missed all of 2019. She has won all 3 races this year.
(4) HOROLOGIST won the Beldame last time over 3 rivals and (9) OLLIE’S CANDY is a hard knocker who rarely wins but always runs well.
Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Turf – 1 1/2 miles
Trainer Brad Cox won two Breeders’ Cup races Friday and is loaded today. The native Kentuckian allowed Breakfast at the Breeders’ Cup to follow him around one morning and it was fun to watch. Like most trainers interviewed during the week, Cox talked up all of his starters but none more that (1) ARKLOW, who added blinkers and won the Kentucky Turf Cup on Sept. 12.
This guy is a slow and steady closer, a Grade 1 winner and if he gets some pace to run at, he can be in the frame.
The amazing mare (2) MAGICAL pushed Enable in the stretch run of the 2018 Turf on soft turf at Churchill and she does like give in the ground. This year at age 5, she has won three Group 1’s all at 10 furlongs. Top mare and is tough to ignore.
A host of other Euros are all adding Lasix and who the heck knows who traveled well but (3) TARNAWA (IRE) is a filly coming off three straight Group victories.
(9) CHANNEL MAKER, the multiple Grade 1 winning Ontario-bred, comes off a paired top of 108 Beyer Figures in two straight Grade 1 wins. He is suddenly better than ever but does he come down from those two career best runs?
Race 12 – Breeders’ Cup Classic – Post time 5:18
Great field. Bob Baffert’s imposing trio of Improbable, who has looked like a monster all week, Authentic, extremely eager sophomore and star crossed ‘Max’, Maximum Security, are all strong factors.
But it is (2) TIZ THE LAW who I am leaning to. He’s fresh and sharp and can post a Beyer Figure in 10 furlongs in the 109 range.
(8) IMPROBABLE has been unbeatable lately and (1) MAXIMUM SECURITY is still relevant.
Sturdy 7-year-old TOM’S D’ETAT only runs at 9 furlongs but what a star he has been in the last 1 1/2 years and he has big Beyer Figures and an excuse from the Whitney when he stumbled.
Good luck!
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