Twenty horses at 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. The 151st Kentucky Derby is days away (the Kentucky Oaks is Friday, May 2), and this site has been studying and watching the Derby horses all spring.
Of course, Woodbine racing fans are aboard the SANDMAN bandwagon, because Woodbine’s perennial leading trainer by wins, MARK CASSE, who has been integral in bringing plenty of horses and top owners to Woodbine to race, trains him. And Sandman is a handsome light grey with a good stretch run and Jose Ortiz riding.
Here is what I have seen this week, through Tuesday morning:
JOURNALISM will be a strong favourite and he has looked every bit a Derby choice all week. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 on Monday. The son of Curlin has the looks, pedigree, tactical speed and speed figures.
Trainer Mike McCarthy said, “He’s fast enough, he’s tactical. The history of the Derby is that there is a pretty vibrant early quarter mile, he’s be part of that, just back of it.
“This horse could have ended up anywhere, we are fortunate enough he ended up here.”
Trainer STEVE ASMUSSEN is 0-for-26 in the Derby (Mike McCarthy is 0-for-1) and he has two contenders this year, TIZTASTIC and PUBLISHER, the latter who is a maiden.
The last maiden to win the Derby was BROKERS TIP in 1933. Only three maidens have won the Derby. The latest maiden to start in the Derby was Bodexpress in 2019 and he was 16th.
Asmussen said about Tiztastic, the Louisiana Derby winner, “We are very excited about the possibility of being an extremely fast pace. I think the distance is what puts him in a position to be there.”
As for Publisher, Asmussen would like to see the colt get going a bit better from the gate, but said the son of American Pharoah has great patience.
“He’s just unflappable, he’s just as quiet and peaceful as he is kind.”
Check out our notes on the Derby Field:
1 Citizen Bull — 20-1 / Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert – Strong in his workout in 58 and change this week. On or near the pace from the rail, distance a question
2 Neoequos — 30-1 / Flavien Prat, Saffie Joseph Jr. – Florida-bred has won at 5 and 6 furlongs. A pace runner who was a fading third in Florida Derby
3 Final Gambit — 30-1 / Luan Machado, Brad Cox – Stretch runner went from a 63 Beyer Figure to a 90 in the Jack Ruby Steaks
4 Rodriguez — 12-1 / Mike Smith, Bob Baffert – Both wins were on the lead, won Wood Memorial with 101 Beyer Figure
5 American Promise — 30-1 / Nik Juarez, Wayne Lukas – Loved him in the Virginia Derby when predicted front-runner, more speed in the field
6 Admire Daytona (JPN) — 30-1 / Christophe Lemaire, Yukihioro Kato – Japanese colt won UAE Derby, stalker
7 Luxor Cafe — 15-1 / Joao Moreira, Noriyuki Hori – Japanese colt has won four straight, Kentucky-bred by American Pharoah
8 Journalism — 3-1 / Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy – 4 for 5, 102 and 108 Beyers in last 2, easily won SA Derby
9 Burnham Square — 12-1 / Brian Hernandez Jr., Ian Wilkes – Blue Grass winner is the buzz horse this week, incredible workouts
10 Grande — 20-1 / John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher – lightly raced, wide when 2nd to Rodriguez
11 Flying Mohawk — 30-1 / Joe Ramos, Whit Beckman – Blinkers come off, he was 2nd in Jeff Ruby on Tapeta, first dirt try, low Beyers
12 East Avenue — 20-1 / Manny Franco, Brendan P. Walsh – Star in 2024, sent hard in Blue Grass and almost held on
13 Publisher — 20-1 / Irad Ortiz Jr., Steve Asmussen – maiden is a stretch runner from the family of Canadian HOY Biofuel
14 Tiztastic — 20-1 / Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen – Louisiana derby (G2) winner is a stretch runner, trainer seeks first Derby win
15 Render Judgment — 30-1 / Julien Leparoux, Kenny McPeek – Co-owned by the late country star Toby Keith, colt has one win
16 Coal Battle — 30-1 / Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley – warm and fuzzy story (trainer is 75 and it’s his first Derby), distance is big question. He’s an eager type early in his races.
17 Sandman — 6-1 / Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse – easily predicted to pop, with a top effort when winning the Arkansas Derby (G1); a horse has never won from this post
18 Sovereignty — 5-1 / Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott – Monster in training this week. Peaked with a 95 Beyer two starts back, should have a big move in a bounce back from Florida Derby
19 Chunk of Gold — 30-1 / Jareth Loveberry, Ethan West – $2,500 purchase has looked great in works at Turfway Park, recently second in Louisiana Derby
20 Owen Almighty — 30-1 / Javier Castellano, Brian Lynch – was put back into the Derby field and then drew post 20. Tampa Bay Derby winner is a pace runner.
AE Baeza — Flavien Prat, John Shirreffs – waiting for a scratch. Modest workout on Monday.
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