Jerry Brown, creator of the popular and successful THORO-GRAPH sheets which assigns figures to a horse’s performance in every race based on the track speed, final time, ground lost among other factors, believes this year’s King’s Plate could be a good betting race.
Thoro-Graph sheets (www,thorograph.com) use data compiled by track people during each race detailing a horse’s journey. The lower the number, the better the effort. You can sign up for an account for free and order products – races, full cards, etc. – from the website. There are also detailed instructions on using the sheets and the ‘Redboard Room’ to look at previous day’s sheet numbers.
One of the key elements of handicapping with sheets (there are also the Ragozin sheets that are quite popular) is looking at patterns of a horse’s form. Is the horse moving forward in his form or declining? Are his numbers comparable to the top contenders in the race?
The overall quality of this year’s Plate (13 horses are entered) is on the low side, but just over half a dozen horses could win the prestigious 1 1/4 mile race on Tapeta.
MY BOY PRINCE, the favourite, seeks to become just the 2nd Champion two-year-old colt from the previous year to win the Plate since the Sovereign Awards were inaugurated in 1975. Edenwold (2006) and Sound Reason (1975) managed the feat.
The grey colt by Cairo Prince is owned by Gary Barber and trained by Mark Casse and he took the Plate Trial in workmanlike fashion despite a slow start from the gate. My Boy Prince, who has run a couple of fives in sprints, is in the nine range currently.
“My Boy Prince is best on his best but his pattern is weak, ” said Brown. “And he’s suspect at the distance.”
Brown points out three horses in the prospective field who have numbers similar to My Boy Prince and could be potential upsetters.
“Essex Street, Pierre, and Rafaroo are all lightly raced with competitive figures, and have patterns that could produce a forward move,” said Brown.
ESSEX STREET, one of the powerful Casse-trained trio, won the Grade 3 Marine Stakes at 1 1/16 miles and is a likely pace runner or stalker. The son of Honor Code posted a nine in the Marine, matching his debut winning number.
PIERRE, a son of Tapiture, is trained by Kevin Attard, who has four in the race, and he has a pair of nines coming into the Plate (as a comparison, the 2022 Plate winner Moira is posting numbers in the two range). RAFAROO, who beat his stablemate Vitality in a workout on the weekend, has raced just twice (Awesome Again, the great Canadian-bred, is the last horse to have won the Plate in a third career race, 1997) went from a 12 to nine when second in the Plate Trial to My Boy Prince.
MIDNIGHT MASCOT, also trained by Casse, has run a 10, as has the filly CAITLYNHERGRTNESS. JOKESTAR and FRIENDLY GHOST come off 12s but any forward move gets them in the picture.
More from Canadian Thoroughbred:
