The Picks: Kentucky Derby and Oaks

This year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) field is a super collection of the top 3-year-old colts and geldings, most of them so early in their racing careers and many of them who have enjoyed success racing on or near the early pace.

In a 20-horse field with more than a half-dozen serious contenders, it likely is not wise to simply select the favourites but this year, the big names look very strong.

My top 5 selections can also be swapped around for exacta boxes or the trifecta:

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1 – #3 – EPICENTER 7-2 – He was dominant in New Orleans in two prep races and has speed and stamina. The son of Gun Runner could be the first Derby winner for the all-time leading trainer by wins, Steve Asmussen.

2 – #10- ZANDON 3-1 – His final major workout for the Derby was stunning and this stretch runner floats over the ground. His Blue Grass win was impressive and he is a strong factor for trainer Chad Brown.

3 – #5 – SMILE HAPPY 20-1 – He was Derby pick a few months ago and he makes his third start off the layoff, often a peak race for a horse coming back from vacation. He was wide and moved a bit early in the Blue Grass when caught by Zandon. He does tend to get sweaty in his works and races so he has to be observed in Derby post parade.

4 – #7 CROWN PRIDE 20-1 – The Japanese colt has stolen the show in Derby week prepping and he has arguably one of the world’s great riders on board in Christophe Lemaire. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the top three or the last three.

5 – #1 – MO DONEGAL 10-1 – He is a long striding, gradual closing type who will need luck to move his way through the big field but he is a strong finisher.

Kentucky Derby Field

Post. Horse > Owner / Trainer / Lifetime Earnings / Jockey / Odds

1. Mo Donegal > Donegal Racing (Jerry Crawford et al) / Todd Pletcher / $621,800 / I. Ortiz / 10-1

2. Happy Jack > Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley) / Doug O’Neill / $182,200 / R. Bejarano / 30-1

3. Epicenter > Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Joan & Ron Winchell) / Steve Asmussen / $1,010,639 / J. Rosario / 7-2

4. Summer Is Tomorrow > Michael Hilary Burke & Negar Burke / Bhupat Seemar / $267,606 / M. Barzelona / 30-1

5. Smile Happy > Lucky Seven Stable (Michael J. Mackin) / Kenny McPeek / $549,810 / C. Lanerie / 20-1

6. Messier > SF Racing LLC (Gavin Murphy), Starlight Racing (Jack Wolf), Madaket Stables LLC (Sol Kumin), Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Shoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC (W. Gregg Slager), Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable (Ben Goldberg & Elliot Friman), Siena Farm LLC (Anthony Manganaro) / Tim Yakteen / $435,600 / J. Velazquez / 8-1

7. Crown Pride (JPN) > Teruya Yoshida / Koichi Shintani / $734,569 / C. Lemaire / 20-1

8. Charge It > Whisper Hill Farm (Amanda Pope) / Todd Pletcher / $230,400 / L. Saez / 20-1

9. Tiz the Bomb > Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek et al) / Kenny McPeek / $1,044,401 / B. Hernandez / 30-1

10. Zandon > Jeff Drown / Chad Brown / $713,000 / F. Prat / 3-1

11. Pioneer of Medina > Sumaya U. S. Stables (Oussama Aboughazale) / Todd Pletcher / $181,350 / J. Bravo / 30-1

12. Taiba > Zedan Racing Stables Inc. (Amr Zedan) / Tim Yakteen / $490,200 / M. Smith / 12-1

13. Simplification > Tami Bobo / Antonio Sano / $482,150 / J. Ortiz / 20-1

14. Barber Road > WSS Racing LLC (William Simon) / John Ortiz / $589,700 / R. Guitierrez / 30-1

15. White Abarrio > C2 Racing Stable LLC (Clint Cornett) & La Milagrosa Stable LLC (Antonio Pagnano) / Saffie Joseph Jr. / $823,650 / T. Gaffalione / 10-1

16. Cyberknife > Gold Square LLC (Abraham “Al” Gold) / Brad Cox / $860,000 / F. Geroux / 20-1

17. Classic Causeway > Cooper & O’Keefe / Brian Lynch / $521,100 / J. Leparoux / 30-1

18. Tawny Port > Peachtree / Brad Cox / $427,000 / R. Santana / 30-1

19. Zozos > Barry & Joni Butzow / Brad Cox /$291,200 / M. Franco / 20-1

20. Ethereal Road > Aaron Sones & Julie Gilbert / D Wayne Lukas / $294,545 / L. Contreras / 30-1

Also entered:

21. Rich Strike

22. Rattle and Roll

KENTUCKY OAKS 148 – 1 1/8 miles

A stellar field is coming together for the Oaks on May 6 including unbeaten KATHLEEN O (Upstart) and ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner) and the very good NEST (Curlin).

The prospects of a wet track would play havoc with some horses. I have been on the bandwagon of the brawny filly SECRET OATH for a few months. She had a messy journey against the colts in the Arkansas Derby and still ran well. But her only wet track race was not good. I will try New York-bred Venti Valentine who ran a career best race in the Busher and just didn’t have winning tactics in the Grade 3 Gazelle.

– VENTI VALENTINE
– KATHLEEN O.
– NEST
-SECRET OATH
-ECHO ZULU

Post. Horse / Points / Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings / Career Earnings

(14 permitted to start)

1. Secret Oath / 80 / $436,707 / $590,167 / D W Lukas / L. Saez / 6-1
2. Nostalgic / 101 / $153,500 / $235,400 / B. Mott / J. Ortiz / 15-1
3. Hidden Connection / 57 / $369,525 / $399,525 / B. Calhoun / R. Guittierez / 20-1
4. Nest / 120 / $573,550 / $623,050 / 5-2
5. Goddess of Fire / 62 / $154,375 / $209,375 / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez /15-1
6. Yuugiri / 114 / $508,050 / $543,610 / R. Persaud / F. Geroux / 30-1
7. Echo Zulu / 130 / $1,665,000 / $1,720,000 / S. Asmussen / J. Rosario / 4-1
8. Venti Valentine / 94 / $237,500 / $416,250 / J. Brye / T. Gafflione / 20-1
9. Desert Dawn / 108 / $328,000 / $378,400 / P. D’Amato / U. Rispoli / 20-1
10. Kathleen O. / 150 / $335,730 / $379,730 / C. McGaughey III / J. Castellano / 7-2
11. Cocktail Moments / 52 / $145,100 / $214,560 / K. McPeek / C. Lanerie / 30-1
12. Candy Raid / 51 / $154,320 / $191,400 / J. Desormeaux / R. Bejarano / 30-1
13. Shahama / 50 / $180,000 / $223,484 / T. Pletcher / F Prat / 15-1
14. Turnerloose / 60 / $516,700 / $547,300 / B. Cox / M. Franco / 20-1

Also entered:

15. ae Beguine 30-1