To cancel or not to cancel? That was the question last Saturday in race 2 at Woodbine when a horse I said was a key on your pick-5 ticket had his race moved from the turf to the main track which, of course, is synthetic. And that’s the issue, isn’t it? A synthetic track is regarded as being a “near turf” course. In Australia and Britain, turf and synthetic track races are interchangeable.

Because the race was taken off the turf, I initially suggested cancelling a pick-5 played by a betting group in the Race Book at Assiniboia Downs. But then I thought: If he’s good enough to win on turf (with lots of early pace), why can’t he wire the field on the “near-turf” synthetic track? Well, cutting the story short if you didn’t watch the race, he did go to the lead but got passed late. And guess who won? The horse that drew into the race only because the race was moved off the turf. He was a “main track only” horse.

Which means a bad decision was made. But I don’t think there’s a clear-cut rule. The tickets certainly would have been cancelled if the horse had been moving to a DIRT surface. Maybe the answer is to still play the turf-to-synthetic horse, but don’t key him.

And what do the rules say about tomorrow’s early pick-5 at Woodbine?

  • Race 2, a race for non-winners of two races lifetime: Here’s your chance to let out a bit of a chuckle because the three DRF Pro Pick analysts chose this chaotic condition to pick their best bet of the day. Good luck on that. The main man, Ron Gierkink, and Pete Shewchuk take 4-1 #7 My Munnings Model, a horse claimed for $25,000 and elevated to $40,000. I generally like such class-risers. And Sheri Riddoch picks 10-1 #3 Shamateur, a horse with one win in 21 starts. But I gravitate to 6-1 #3 Noahs Ark because he last raced in the tough “starter” race condition at Turfway Park. But, as you know, anything can happen in this race condition.
  • Race 3, maiden turf sprint: #4 at 12-1 and #9 at 10-1 have, by far, the highest Tomlinson figure for turf breeding: 412 and 415. The exactor will obviously pay big if they finish one-two. Other horses to add because of trainers, riders and the highest speed figure are #2, 3 and 8.
  • Race 4, turf route: The best closing-fraction horses are #9 and #10. Also note #12 has the highest pace number in his last race. With the drop in class, can he wire the field at 8-1? And, hey, the four-year-old gelding Jay Bird is a gray!
  • Race 5, maiden turf sprint: Wow! The two-year-old filly #3 Starry Night has a 449 Tomlinson turf breeding figure. It’s very rare to see a figure that high — and the odds on this first-time starter are 15-1! The next-best is #8 Ready for Candy with 398 who finished third in her first lifetime race but that race — take note — was taken off the turf. #2 Mikelle is likely to be favoured because she finished second in her first lifetime start.
  • Race 6, Plate Trial: Lucky you, you don’t need to go past #4 and #5 that have the highest speed figures—and #5 My Boy Prince at 2-5 is likely to be the logical key if you go deep on other legs in your pick-5 tickets.

Good luck in your selections. What will be fun is playing the horses with the highest Tomlinson figures because they’re all longshots. A small bet keying the highest Tomlinsons even in pick-3s or doubles could make your day!

~ by Ivan Bigg