Bounce.
It’s a word used in Thoroughbred handicapping that some bettors embrace, others scoff at, and still others don’t totally understand.
According to the bounce theory, a horse who improves sharply in a race ‒ for instance, posting a new career-high speed figure, or a horse who runs a hard race off a layoff of five months or more ‒ will “bounce” or decline in form.
This theory came about from the studies of Harry Ragozin and his son Len, curator of ‘The Sheets’ which plots speed figures on a graph to show a horse’s form patterns. In a profile of Len Ragozin in The New Yorker years ago, he noted that a huge effort by a horse meant two things: “When a horse runs a good race, it’s both good and bad…Did that race hurt him, or was it a springboard to further good efforts?”
Handicappers and recreational bettors who don’t even use The Sheets, or the similar ThoroGraph sheets, now widely use the bounce concept no matter what type of speed figures they are using.
The most credible aspect of the bounce is considered the hard race off a long layoff and on King’s Plate day, August 23. the Bold Venture Stakes (G3), race 7 on the card, presents us with a possible bounce scenario.
(#3) PATCHES O’HOULIHAN, the 2023 Champion Male Sprinter in Canada, made his 2024 debut in the restricted Pink Lloyd Stakes for Ontario-sired runners on July 28, some eight months after his final outing of last year. Masterfully prepared by Robert Tiller, Patches O’Houlihan streaked to the lead in the Pink Lloyd and won by six lengths in a rapid clocking of 1:09.13 for six furlongs, a career-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure (and a 107 Equibase Figure).
Patches’ previous top Beyer Figure was 93 that he earned three times in 2023.
Now the bay four-year-old returns 21 days later against six rivals in the slightly longer Bold Venture (6 1/2 furlongs) including the exciting and undefeated (#6) PLAYMEA TUNE who has won both career races by a total of 16 1/2 lengths with 95 and 96 Beyer Figures.
Also in the field are several classy sprinters such as (#2) IRONSTONE, (4) BORDER TOWN, and (#7) FIRST EMPIRE. Then there are two fellows who appear to be in the upward spiral, (#1) CAPTURE THE LION and (#5) I’M A GAMBLER.
I am going to take the position that Patches O’Houlihan will come down a bit from his big win three weeks ago and play the hotshot Playmea Tune, who will be trying his first stakes race. Kazushi Kimura, who will return to Woodbine from Del Mar for the day, reunites with the Josie Carroll-trained speedster but just might be this good. Both wins were earned from just off the pace and with ease.
My longshot play of the race is First Empire, who has the opposite profile of Patches O’Houlihan; he got tired in his return from a long layoff and faded, but figures to improve a lot from that outing. First Empire, who has often sped through half-mile pace fractions of :44 seconds and change, might be the quickest early in the race and prove tough to catch.
Bold Venture wagers: $2 Exactor Part Wheel 6, 7 / 1, 3, 6, 7 = $12.00
Good luck with your Bet365 wagers!
