Handicapping presented by bet365: The Breeders' Stakes

It is the toughest leg of the Canadian Triple Crown to win and the main reason why the series has not been won in over 20 years. The $400,000 Breeders’ Stakes is a 1 1/2 mile tour of the giant E.P. Taylor turf course, the longest race of the Triple Crown and the only one on grass.

The distance, surface, time of year and makeup of the field all contribute to a large number of longshot winners of the Breeders’ and for the most part, turf is the preferred surface of those winners.

The 134th Breeders’ will be held at Woodbine on Sunday, September 29 and it is race nine on the afternoon. This year’s field is the smallest in a couple of decades, with just seven entered and neither the King’s Plate nor Prince of Wales winners are in the field. In fact, there is just one stakes winner in the entries ‒ the filly Hurricane Clair ‒ and four of the other six entrants are maidens.

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Historical trends

The first trend you need to know about the Breeders’ is that the favourite almost never wins. In 2009 it was 46-to-1 shot Perfect Shower, trained by the great Roger Attfield, and in 2010, 65-to-1 bomb Miami Deco upset the field. Camp Creek stunned at 26-to-1 in 2016 and British Royalty slogged home on soft turf at 24-to-1 in 2021. Even the last two winners, Touch’n Ride and Sir for Sure, paid $10 and $13 to win, respectively.

Since Wando won the 2003 Breeders’ and became [the last] Triple Crown winner, most of the Breeders’ winners did not win the Plate or Prince of Wales and many did not run in one or either race. Since it is such as specialty race, owners and trainers are pointing their long-distance grass horses to the Breeders long before the Triple Crown begins.

The Breeders’ is held about a month later than usual these days, ever since the COVID pandemic delayed the 2020 King’s Plate by almost two months. The Triple Crown races were never moved back to their original dates and that has contributed to slightly weaker fields for the Breeders’ as many three-year-olds are being put away for the season.

Maidens and fillies

As more than half of this year’s Breeders’ field are maidens, chances are good that a maiden will win. Since 1900, however, there have only been two horses break their maiden in the Breeders’: Fair Montague in 1915 and Miami Deco in 2010.

Eight fillies have won the Breeders’ since 1980, but none since 2012. There was a time when fillies were dominating the Breeders’, fillies such as Bounding Away, Carotene and Dance Smartly. Now there are plenty more opportunities locally and at other tracks for fillies who love the grass. But certainly in the early fall of their three-year-old campaign, a filly is very capable of beating the boys.

Pedigree

One of the similarities in Breeders’ Stakes winners is that most have the classic long-distance and turf pedigree. Recent winners of the Breeders have European breeding by sires such as Giant’s Causeway, Perfect Soul (Ire) and Sligo Bay (Ire) and classic American studs such as English Channel, Stormy Atlantic, Scat Daddy and Lemon Drop Kid.

Applying the Trends

Morning line favourite (#3) HURRICANE CLAIR is the legitimate favourite in a weak edition of the Breeders’ Stakes, although she did just run a hard race to win the slightly shorter Wonder Where Stakes over her own kind.

The trio from Chiefswood Stable, which won the 2023 Breeders’ with Touch’n Ride (by Candy Ride) and the 2018 edition with his half-brother Neepawa (by Scat Daddy), are all uncoupled and each one is interesting.

Two of those are trained by Rachel Halden, who prepared Camp Creek to win the Breeders’ and she has been bringing two sophomores up to this year’s race seemingly ready to peak. (#2) ROSCAR, by multiple Grade 1 winning turf horse Oscar Performance, was recently third in a 10-furlong turf allowance race against older horses after tracking a slow pace. Halden also trains the maiden filly (#7) SACCHARINE, who was a closing third behind Hurricane Clair in the Wonder Where. Saccharine is also out of a Niigon mare, just like Chiefswood’s two Breeders’ winners.

The third Chiefswood horse is the gelding Side Street, who was second by a nose in a 10-furlong maiden race on grass on Sept. 2.

The wagers:

$3 Exactor 2, 7 / 2, 3, 7 = $12.00
$10 win 2 Roscar

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!!

Post – Horse – Jockey – Trainer

1 – Thor’s Cause – Jeffrey Alderson – Krista Cole 20-1
2 – Roscar – Justin Stein – Rachel Halden 5-2
3 – Hurricane Clair – Sahin Civaci – Martin Drexler 8-5
4 – King Rosso – Kazushi Kimura – Kevin Attard 4-1
5 – Side Street (S) – Sofia Vives – Layne Giliforte 6-1
6 – Jokestar – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Kevin Attard 10-1
7 – Saccharine (S) – Rafael Hernandez – Rachel Halden 8-1