Handicapping Presented by bet365: The Connaught Cup

The Grade 2 Connaught Cup will be run for the 92nd time on July 20 at Woodbine and it is one of the oldest stakes races on the calendar. It is also a race that has been won by the some of the great Canadian-breds; James Bay, Royal Chocolate, With Approval, Sky Classic and Rahy’s Attorney are just a few of the past winners.

The Connaught is a seven-furlong turf race that gets the local stakes trail going on the way to the Woodbine Mile (G1), held in mid-September. However, it is also a race that sprinters can do well in, as the run to the turn is not a long one.

This year’s edition has eight entrants and one, (#1) FLAG OF HONOUR, will be a strong favourite based on his recent victory in the Jacques Cartier Stakes.

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Can any of his rivals get past him? Let’s take a look:

E.P. Taylor Turf Course

The course has not been used much in the last couple of weeks as there has been a lot of rain in the area. The Taylor course, due to have a large section replaced later this year or into next year, can get very soft on the backstretch and that is why the inside paths are much better on this course currently.

On big race days, such as Woodbine Oaks day Saturday, the rails will be down. In other words, the entire turf course will be used rather than several paths on the inside being preserved.

Utilizing the entire course makes it easier for stretch runners to win turf races, especially sprint races, and often you will see turf winners on big days coming up the inside. Statistics on Equibase show that on both the E.P. Taylor and Inner turf course, post positions one through four win the majority of the races.

The long stretch run of the Taylor turf course when a horse is sprinting tends to be kinder to horses who have proven to handle one mile distances. Horses such as Cruden Bay, War Bomber, Ironstone and Saratoga Flash fit into this category.

Vulnerable favourite?

Flag of Honour, who came from Australia in search of the Lasix medication, has taken to Woodbine racing very well. The gelding liked the grass in his home country and this will be his first try on the Woodbine turf.

It will also be his first try at 7 furlongs since 2022 when he had mixed results at the distance. A speedy type, the gelding can also sit just off the early pace if necessary, but perhaps the 7 furlong distance is just a bit past his best distance?

Flag of Honour is listed at 7-to-5 in the morning line odds.

Don’t be afraid to scratch out previous races

The horse most likely to love the distance of the Connaught Cup is (#3) WAR BOMBER, who was a close second in the Connaught Cup last year to American invader Dream Shake. War Bomber then went on to win the King Edward Gold Cup at one mile in his next race.

More importantly, the switch back to the grass will mean a lot for the son of War Front who is out of the Irish-bred mare Sun Shower.

War Bomber raced on Tapeta in his only start in 2024, ended last year in a Tapeta route race and ran on soft grass in the Nearctic. Before that, War Bomber was fourth in the Woodbine Mile and took the King Edward.

Deja vu?

Shippers to Woodbine have a good record in the race and in 2016, trainer Conor Murphy came up from his Skylight Training Centre in Kentucky with Dimension and won the Connaught Cup at 20-to-1 odds. Murphy, who has not been seen here much since then, brings (#7) NOT NORMAL to Woodbine for only his second attempt on the grass. The colt shows plenty of fast workout times.

The verdict: With the potential of there being a contested pace battle in this year’s Connaught Cup, (#3) WAR BOMBER look like he will have a hot pace to run at. The Norm McKnight trainee is four-for-nine on the Woodbine turf and he should be charging late.

The bet: $10 win on War Bomber
$3 Exactor 1, 3, / 1, 3, 7

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!

Field for the Grade 2 $175,000 bet365 Connaught Cup (July 20, Race 8)
Post – Horse – Jockey – Trainer

1. Flag of Honour (AUS) – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Julia Carey 7-5
2. Cruden Bay – Sofia Vives – Don MacRae 10-1
3. War Bomber (IRE) – Rafael Hernandez – Norm McKnight 12-1
4. Ironstone – Ryan Munger – William Armata 8-1
5. First Empire – Patrick Husbands – Mark Casse 6-1
6. Capture the Lion (S) – Sahin Civaci – Mark Casse 8-1
7. Not Normal – David Moran – Conor Murphy 20-1
8. Saratoga Flash – Edgard Zayas – Saffie Joseph, Jr. 3-1