Handicapping presented by Bet365: Dance Smartly Stakes

Saturday’s Fall Turf Showcase at Woodbine features four rich stakes races on the turf including the bet365 Dance Smartly Stakes (G2), named for one of the greatest Canadian-bred mares in history. A very good field of 12 fillies and mares has been assembled for the Dance Smartly which is at 1 1/16 miles around one turn.

This is going to be a difficult race to handicap, as most of the field is evenly matched and there are seven gals shipping in for the race from the US. In addition, there are questions with some of the top contenders; South African champion Princess Calla has never raced in North America, Canada’s 2023 Horse of the Year Fev Rover (Ire) has been short of her best form, and is there enough speed for closers such as Nadette (Fr)?

Let’s take a closer look at this fascinating race:

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Shippers

The visitors to Woodbine this weekend will be happy to know that there has not been much rain in the past week and the E.P. Taylor turf course could be close to firm.

The course, with its sweeping turns and long stretch, is a favourite of US trainers who have won this race six straight years in succession and won nine of the last 14 runnings.

Neil Drysdale, Bill Mott, Christophe Clement, Chad Brown, Michael Dickinson and Jimmy Jerkens are the recent winners of the Dance Smartly and Drysdale (Nadette) and Brown (Princess Calla and Tax Implications (GB)) have horses in this year’s race.

At this later time of the season and with the Breeders’ Cup World Championships nearing, the shippers are more likely to have more serious plans in place for getting black-type or getting a good race before the Breeders’ Cup. Many of the locals are at the tail end of their seasons and headed to a vacation or the breeding shed.

Recent Winners of the Dance Smartly Stakes

Yr – Horse, Age, Jockey, Trainer, Owner / Time (race was 9 furlongs to 2017, 10 furlongs to 2022)

2023 – Miss Dracarys, 5, Javier Castellano, Neil D. Drysdale, Al Shira’aa Farms / 1:39.60
2022 – Wakanaka, 4, Rafael Manuel Hernandez, William I. Mott, Team Valor & Gary Barber / 1:39.46
2021 – Mutamakina, 5, Dylan Davis Christophe Clement, Al Shira’aa Farms / 2:01.26
2020 – Theodora B., 5, Justin Stein, Michael Dickinson, Augustin Stable / 2:02.35
2019 – Holy Helena, 5, Javier Castellano, James Jerkens, Stronach Stables / 2:02.08
2018 – Santa Monica, 5, José Ortiz, Chad Brown, Magnier/Madaket Stables/Pearson / 1:59.51
2017 – Starship Jubilee (DH), 5, E. Da Silva, Kevin Attard, Attard and Mehta / 2:01.91
2017 – Rainha Da Bateria(DH), 4, Javier Castellano, Chad Brown, Lea Stable / 2:01.91
2016 – Lexie Lou, 5, Patrick Husbands, Mark E. Casse, Gary Barber / 1:44.89
2015 – Strut the Course, 5, Luis Contreras, Barbara J. Minshall, John Unger / 1:45.41
2014 – Overheard, 4, Eurico Rosa Da Silva, Malcolm Pierce, Pin Oak Stable / 1:44.25
2013 – Solid Appeal, 4, Jesse M. Campbell, Reade Baker, Jim & Susan Hill / 1:46.19
2012 – Marketing Mix, 4, Julien Leparoux, Thomas F. Proctor, Glen Hill Farm / 1:48.02
2011 – Never Retreat 6, Shaun Bridgmohan, Chris Block, Team Block / 1:46.48
2010 – Mekong Melody, 5, Patrick Husbands, Roger L. Attfield, David C. Egan / 1:46.09

The dark horse

South African Horse of the Year (#1) PRINCESS CALLA is a multiple Group 1 winner in her home country and this spring she was purchased privately by American owner John Stewart. The mare has been training with Chad Brown since then and she will race with Lasix for the first time in the Dance Smartly.

As a frame of reference, Princess Calla was second by just half a length to a filly named Beach Bomb in the Cartier Paddock Stakes (G1) in the winter. Beach Bomb recently made her first start in North America and was a close second in a stakes event at Monmouth Park and she is entered in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita on Oct. 5.

The one-turn 1 1/16 mile distance and firm turf should suit Princess Calla well and trainer Brown is a whiz at having a horse ready off a long layoff.

Ignore that Kentucky Downs form

The boutique turf meeting at Kentucky Downs runs for two weeks in August and this year’s meeting featured a final week where the turf course was very firm and inside speed-favouring. Nadette, Mission of Joy, Mouffy and Sparkle Blue all competed in the Grade 3 Ladies Turf at one mile on Aug. 31 and the top three finishers that day were all on the pace. Sparkle Blue ran a super race to rally from far back to be fourth while Nadette came from even further back to finish sixth. All four horses deserve another look on a fairer turf course.

Sprint to the finish

The majority of the Dance Smartly entrants are stalkers or closers but unlike the recent E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) when Full Count Felicia went on a front-running tear in that 10-furlong event, there does not appear to be a strong front-runner. Fev Rover has tactical speed and should get a good trip near the pace with longshot Spansive in close attendance. Canisy, an invader for trainer Arnaud Delacour, is another pace prospect ensuring an honest pace.

Put it all together

I am going to focus on the shippers coming out of the Ladies Turf, the South African mare Princess Calla and champion Fev Rover.

$1 Exactor Box 1, 5, 6, 9, 12 = $20.00
$10 win 12 Sparkle Blue

THE FIELD for the bet365 DANCE SMARTLY STAKES (G2)

1 1/16 miles, turf
Woodbine, Oct. 5, Race 8

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!!

Post – Horse – Jockey – Trainer

1 – Princess Calla (SAF) – Patrick Husbands – Chad Brown 5-2
2 – Millie Girl – Ryan Munger – Catherine Day Phillips 12-1
3 – Canisy – Jorge Vargas, Jr. – Arnaud Delacour 20-1
4 – Dolce Sopresa – Fraser Aebly – Josie Carroll 20-1
5 – Nadette (FR) – Julien Leparoux – Neil Drysdale 8-1
6 – Mission of Joy – Declan Cannon – Graham Motion 6-1
7 – Mouffy – Vincent Cheminaud – Jonathan Thomas 15-1
8 – Tax Implications (GB) – Luis Contreras – Chad Brown 12-1
9 – Fev Rover (IRE) – Sahin Civaci – Mark Casse 3-1
10 – Queen Macha – Jose Campos – Martin Drexler 20-1
11 – Spansive – Rafael Hernandez – Kevin Attard 20-1
12 – Sparkle Blue – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Graham Motion 12-1