CANADIAN CUP

 

 

 

DID YOU SEE THAT?

CATCH A GLIMPSE WINS FOR ONTARIO!

A group of longtime Ontario horse owners and breeders, also good friends, celebrated one of the boggest wins possible in Thoroughbred racing yesterday at Keeneland: a Breeders’ Cup win.

CATCH A GLIMPSE, bought by Jeff Begg’s Windways Farm as a yearling and now owned by his friend Mike Ambler (who sold a small share of his share to his friend Greg Lang) and American owner Gary Barber, bossed around a big field on soft turf in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf and won the $1 million Grade 1 at 6-1.

The Natlalma Stakes (G2) winner had earned her way into the Cup with that stakes score, a Win and You’re In race. She had been trained to a ‘t’ by Mark Casse and his team and she was ridden smoothly by Florent Geroux.

She was probably signalling her upcoming score when she did the ‘Zenyatta’ prance in the post parade, thrusting out her right front leg in ballerina style as she paraded for the fans before the race.

She was pretty rank in the early stages but the pace was slow and Geroux got her to settle just off the flank of Ruby Notion before she went on to take the lead. There was no passing her once she got in front.

Gary Barber, in the midst of a big week since his giant movie Spectre, the latest James Bond film, was released yesterday, and Casse celebrated their first Breeders’ Cup win just a year after they won the Queen’s Plate with Lexie Lou.

The win was absolutely huge for our local boys, however.

A week ago, Ambler and Lang appeared on Talkin Horses and chatted about CATCH A GLIMPSE in the Breeders’ Cup (at 11:00 of the show below)

 

 

 

Jeff Begg was already in Kentucky, shopping at sales and checking out the prized filly he bought, one of 3 purchases he made at the auction.

Remember, these guys also had the 2-year-old colt BELIVEAU earlier this year, a stakes winner who surprised even his trainer Mark Casse when he came out like a champ in the spring.

Bad luck be felled Beliveau as he got very ill but he recovered at Begg’s farm in Mono, ON.

Begg and his wife Annabel own Windways, a farm started in part Jeff’s father Jim. Windways raced 1996 Queen’s Plate winner Victor Cooley and El Brujo but sold it’s large farm a couple of years ago to scale down.

Catch a Glimpse, a City Zip gal out of Halo River, is a half sister to one of Canada’s top sires Old Forester.

She was expected to be pinhooked with the other 2 purchases that Begg made (which includes Sweetwater and a Wildcat Heir filly) but with Ambler and Barber buying in, he kept the gals.

What a great decision.

No doubt WOODBINE CLUB members look forward to greeting Jeff, Mike and Greg upon their return to Woodbine!

 

 

 

JEFF BEGG post-race “I bought the filly last year at Keeneland, and it was funny, because actually I went to look at another filly at a consignment, and this filly was standing outside,” Begg recalled. “I thought, whoa, that filly looks pretty sharp. I looked at the page. She was half sister to a horse called Old Forester, who stands in Canada, a very fast horse.

“I looked at her again. The second day, I went back and pulled her out with the other horse. Every day I looked at her, I liked her more. She wasn’t a big horse, didn’t have tons of bone, but she was very, very athletic, looked very quick… So I bought her… actually we had her kind of pegged to go to a 2-year-old sale… The plan changed a few times, but the partnership came out and it worked out, to say the least.”

 

FRIDAY’S PRE-RACE STORY IN TORONTO STAR

http://www.thestar.com/sports/2015/10/29/gtas-catch-a-glimpse-ranked-third-at-breeders-cup-juvenile-filly-turf.html

 

DISTAFF –   STOPCHARGINGMARIA, sold by Mike Repole last year to Town and Country

Winning owner Kiki Courtelis said, “It was incredible. It’s my first Breeders’ Cup race that I’ve ever had a horse in, and just such an exciting experience.

My mom and I have always wanted to go to thoroughbreds and we just decided to make the move, and moved to Kentucky after four of our best mares didn’t hold their pregnancy when we got them home. We just said, you know, if we’re going to be in this, we’ve got to be here.”

Lightly raced this year with 2 Grade 3 wins in her 4 starts, STOPCHARGINGMARIA (Tale of the Cat – Exotic Bloom, by Montbrook) had not raced since August but was very ready, loves to run fresh and well ridden.

Last year she won the Alabama, CCA Oaks and Black Eyed Susan for Mike Repole. Repole tried to sell her at Fasig Tipton’s November sale but she did not meet her reserve (bought back for $3.15 million). Courtelis’ Town and Country then worked out a deal to buy the mare later.

MAP LEADS TO DIRT MILE WIN

LIAM’S MAP, named for a soldier, overcame a bit of a messy trip in traffic to win at odds-on in the Dirt Mile. The son of Unbridled’s Song was retired right after the race, as was runner-up LEA.

HIT IT A BOMB – unbeaten 2yo from overseas.

The War Front 2yo colt HIT IT A BOMB came from post 14 and far, far back to win the Juvenile Turf in 1:38.89, just a shade faster than Catch a Glimpse, under the amazing jock Ryan Moore. The colt’s Polytrack win in his last start overseas was breathtaking and he could be any kind of colt.

 

**TIME FOR HANDICAPPING!  BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS

WE SAY GOODBYE TO THE PHAROAH

 

JAKE and Thoroughblog are back with more picks and notes for today’s blockbuster Breeders’ Cup day:

JUVENILE FILLIES – SONGBIRD looks almost as strong as Liam’s Map, RACHEL’S VALENTINA could improve again, make it close

TURF SPRINT – Love UNDRAFTED off his form, looks ready to hit a peak, he looked great in a workout. Frankie Dettori and Wesley Ward.

Also like READY FOR RYE and maybe our own STACKED DECK for a piece.

F/M SPRINT – could be crazy speed in this race, liked TARIS a bit to survive the speed, DAME DOROTHY, ARTEMIS AGROTARA too.

In this race is last year’s champ and Ontario-bred JUDY THE BEAUTY and Ontario red WAVELL AVENUE

F/M TURF – Tough one – LEGATISSIMO will be HEAVILY FAVOURED, same folks that brought us Curvy who won EP Taylor Stakes; hard to ignore; also interested in SENTERIO ITALIA and DACITA.

SPRINT – Impossible!  SALUTOS AMIGOS a longshot pick but RUNHAPPY and LIMOUSINE LIBERAL (like 3yos in the Sprint) on my tickets

MILE – Lots of Euros to choose from – MAKE BELIEVE looks good, MSHAWISH is my longshot.

Canada has Grand Arch from the rail.

JUVENILE –have to cheer for RIKER, love his Beyer Figure pattern but not sure about dirt. We will pick EXAGGERATOR and BRODY’S CAUSE

TURF – GOLDEN HORN, ya ya, 5 Arc winners have come to the Breeders’ Cup and all have lost. The Horn is a freak. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE is a cool dude, will be betting him

CLASSIC – AMERICAN PHAROAH has a pace advantage even if he is not the boss on Beyer Figures (although I expect a 108-110 from him). SMOOTH ROLLER is interesting.

 

RYAN DICKEY’S  Bet what you like, bet what I like, or just bet the #10 horse (part 2)

Part 2 of my two-part Breeders’ Cup analysis where I implore you to bet who you like, bet who I like, or just simply bet the #10 horse in every race.

Part 1 is here: https://canadianthoroughbred.com/thoroughblog/forces/

 

FRIDAY’S BREEDERS’ CUP RACES

Juvenile Fillies (1-1/16 mile on dirt for two year old fillies)

If you read the first part of this series, you’ll notice I liked the #10 horse the most in the first B.C. race on Friday. Same thing here.

A lot of sentimental money will go on #9 RACHEL’S VALENTINA who is Thoroughbred royalty. she’s been racing very well in her own right, and is the second-favorite on the morning line, and may very well finish second in what may be the most thrilling race on Saturday. I don’t picture anything other than Rachel’s Valentina hanging in with #10 SONGBIRD, but the latter prevailing.
OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
You want a horse to single? Or how about you want a horse to bet a HUGE show bet with? Songbird is your filly. She’s good, and getting better. If you want to hedge a bit in multi-race bets, go 9,10–but make no mistake–Songbird wins this race.

A large straight 10-9 exacta and a single for Songbird. If you only bet the #10 horses each day, you will have AT LEAST one winner. Won’t pay though…

 

Turf Sprint (5-½ furlongs on turf for three year olds and up)

I like #3 UNDRAFTED. I like Dettori. I like wesley Ward. Heck, I even like Wes Welker. So he’s the horse I’m backing.
There are others to back–namely #5 Lady Shipman who will try to wire the field. #12 Ready for Rye may not have the back-class as others here, but he’s in top form, and could be at double-digit odds (“value”). and keep an eye out for #2 Bobby’s Kitten, third of the long layoff for Chad Brown with Castellano up.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
#10 THE GREAT WAR was unspectacular in Europe, so he came over the North America, and looks just as unspectacular. This horse is 12-1 on the morning line, and should be closer to 25-1 come post time. This one almost made me not want to write this article. stranger things have happened.

Exacta and Trifecta boxes on #2, #3, and #5 is the way to go here. If you are a superfecta player, slide the #10 into the final slot, and hope for the best.

Fillies and Mares Sprint (7 furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up)

This is one of the most difficult races of the weekend for me. I like two horses here who MAY go “under the radar”, or they may end-up being “wiseguy” horses. They are #6 SUPER MAJESTY and #7 WAVELL AVENUE.

Super Majesty has been favored in every one of her career races, and has won three of the four, finishing second in her other start. She won a G3 stakes last out at the same distance. She may not have the class as others in the race, but she does have a nose for the wire. Should be a double-digit price with a shot.

Wavell Avenue finished flying in her last out when she placed in the G2 Gallant Bloom behind #4 La Verdad, who is a 6-1 morning line price in this race.

Let others bet #11 Judy the Beauty and the favorite #14 Cavorting. The former isn’t her old self, and the latter won’t be able to out-run her post position.

A longshot is #5 ARTEMIS AGROTERA who is racing for the first time in a year. The works are there, and she’ll be dismissed–the things that exotic bettors dream of.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
Since September of last year, #10 Kiss to Remember has run in three graded stakes, and hit the board in all three. At 30-1 on the morning line, she may get closer to 20-1, and although she’s not the best longshot to back, she’s worthwhile.

Trifecta and Exacta boxes with #5, #6, #7. a straight win bet on the #10. In multi-race bets, just play Super Majesty and Wavell Avenue.

Fillies and mares Turf (1-3/16 mile on turf for three years old and up)

If you like #3 LEGATISSIMO (IRE), you won’t be alone. At 8/5, she’s one of the most vulnerable favorites on Saturday. Yes, you should look at Euro’s in turf races. Yes, Ryan Moore is aboard. Yes, she’s looked outstanding. And yes, she most definitely CAN win the race. But at odds-on, in a field full of European (and a Chilean) invaders, you may want to look elsewhere.

How about #12 SECRET GESTURE (GB)? She’s hit the board in Group 1 and Group 2 races overseas, and finished second (disqualified to third) on yielding turf last out. I’d much rather back an 8-1 horse than an 8/5 horse.

What about Chad Brown’s #11 STEPHANIE’S KITTEN? She finished second in this race last year. All she does (with the exception of back-to-back races in June and July of this year) is hit the board in big graded stakes races. She’s listed at 10-1 on the m/l, and will be overlooked because everyone will be ‘all-in” on the Euros. She’s “live”.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
#10 BAWINA (IRE) SCRATCHED. So don’t try to bet her.

If you INSIST on betting Legatissimo, put her on top of Stephanie’s Kitten and Secret Gesture. Play all three in multi-race bets.

Sprint (6 furlongs on dirt for three years old and up)

#2 KOBE’S BACK can’t get out of the gate in a timely fashion, but he absolutely flies to the wire. IF he can magically become an average gate horse, he’s in the mix, instead of starting ten lengths back. He’s 15-1 for a reason.

#5 RUNHAPPY is a freak, and a fan-favorite, so if he wins, it’ll be the loudest Keeneland will be until the Classic. He’ll almost be un-bettable. ALMOST.

#6 IVAN FALLUNOVALOT has a fun name, and his odds will be even more fun, as he’s a sneaky contender. He’s a real live longshot.

But the horse I LOVE in the Sprint is #11 BARBADOS. He finished second to Runhappy last out. He’s a closer. This race should have a ridiculous pace, so looking for closers is automatic for any handicapper in this scenario. Barbados is my LONGSHOT OF THE BREEDERS’ CUP.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
I do like #10 SALUTOS AMIGOS to sit mid-pack and pick off the tiring front-runners. He should be in the mix, and therefore, is a nice #10 to have a ticket with.

Go for the gusto! Bet Barbados with me. He’s going to make my Saturday, or he’ll just be another high-odds horse that gets beat by a big favorite. Again, give me the 20-1 live horse over the 2-1 favorite ANY DAY.

Bet Runhappy, Barbados, and yes, Salutos Amigos (our #10) in multi-race bets. Also, box the #2, #6, #10, and #11– hoping that Runhappy runs up the track, and you have the HUGE payday that B.C. bettors dream of. This is the race to take a shot!

Mile (1 mile on turf for three years old and up)

I’ve looked at this race. And looked at it. And tried to come up with SOMETHING.

I decided that—I’m just going to bet the #10 horse.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
#10 Mshawish has a funny name. He’s a Pletcher horse. Dettori is riding him. He’s 15-1 on the morning line. And for a race that I’m having a hard time deciphering, I’m playing a “flier” on the #10.

In multi-race bets–hit the “ALL” button.

 

Juvenile (1-1/16 mile on dirt for colts and geldings two years old)

I like #6 RATED R SUPERSTAR. I really hope I get rewarded handsomely here. He has tangled with a few rivals in this field, and has been right there, although hasn’t yet been good enough to beat them. But he’s looking like he’s improving as a racehorse. I’m sure the other two year olds are improving, but the odds are in Rated R Superstar’s favor.

I’d rather have him than #3 GREENPOINTCRUSADER at short odds. And I most definitely like him better than the favorite #13 NYQUIST who is too far outside, and is really not that good.

I feel that the sneaky pick here is #2 RIKER. He’s won all four of his races, and although they aren’t premier races (except for the G3 Grey), it’s hard to ignore the fact that he has heart. He doesn’t have the speed figures as some of the other contenders in this deep race, but do not ignore him.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
#10 Ralis is hit-or-miss. He doesn’t always fire. He does have a premier jockey in Castellano. This race is wide-open, so if you have the #10, your chances are pretty much as good as anyone else’s.

I’ll play the #6, #2, and #11 ISOTHERM who won the G3 Pilgrim last out.

Playing them in Exacta and Trifecta boxes. In multi-race bets, I’ll go deep: 2,3,6,10,11.

Turf (1-½ mile on turf for three years old and up)

I’m not even going to try to talk you out of betting #1 GOLDEN HORN (GB), even at ⅗ or ½, or whatever his odds-on favorite odds will be. Someone will bet $50,000 to show on this horse. They will more than likely get the minimum return, and there aren’t many better ways to make money in two minutes and twenty-some seconds.

But look at #7 BIG BLUE KITTEN. His winning time in his last race (also 1-½ miles) was almost four seconds faster than the Arc de’ Triomphe winner Golden Horn’s time. and the Arc starts out on a ridiculously long straightaway. They say that time only matters in prison (or something like that), but as much as I respect Golden Horn, Arc winners don’t win B.C. races next out.

***Do NOT bet #2 SHINING COPPER. He’s simply a “rabbit”. His job is to set a brisk pace, and let his stablemate pick up the broken piece late in the race. He’s the Cal Naughton to Big Blue Kitten’s Ricky Bobby.

#6 TWILIGHT ECLIPSE can get a piece, but don’t hold your breath for him to win. He has two wins, two places, and five shows in twelve races at this distance. At 20-1 on the m/l he’ll help with exotic prices.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
#10 THE PIZZA MAN is an Illinois crowd favorite. Whether that will transfer over to Lexington or not remains to be seen, but he’s a solid horse who MAY have over-achieved. He has a nose for the wire and has much success in graded stakes races. He has won twice at this distance, so for a #10 pick, he has a fighter’s chance.

I’m going to bet a straight bet on Big Blue Kitten. But I’m also playing Golden Horn in multi-race bets, because I don’t like tearing up tickets when good horses win easy. Golden Horn is no “toss”, but I’m going to try to beat him. You don’t have to.

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC (1-¼ mile on dirt for three years old and up)

So, #2 KEEN ICE beat Triple Crown winner #4 AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Travers Stakes last time out. “It was a perfect set-up” for Keen Ice in the Travers I’ve been told on more than one occasion. “Pharoah was spent” from his T.C. run and Haskell win, I was told. “Keen Ice has NO SHOT of hitting the board”, I’ve been tweeted.

Keen Ice is my pick to beat AP again, in Pharoah’s swan song. They finish 1-2. #9 HONOR CODE comes in third.

OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
You can’t. BEHOLDER scratched.

I’m a full-time firefighter. My badge number is 249. I’m betting a LARGE straight trifecta in this race 2,4,9.

I’m playing all three in the multi-race bets. I’m playing a large WIN bet on Keen Ice.

I’ll be at Keeneland for the Breeders’ Cup, and I’ll be rooting in YOUR plays. I’ll be rooting in MY plays a little more. And I’ll be rooting in the #10 all day as “back-up bets”.

I wish us all the best of luck!