DERBY DAY

It’s Derby Day! Who do you like?

(Thoroughblog’s pick is below)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JUSTIFY WAS THE 7-2 favourite for the Kentucky Derby at 8 p.m. Friday evening. He was followed by Mendelssohn at 5-1, and My Boy Jack at 5-1. Audible was 6-1 followed by Good Magic at 8-1 and Bolt d’Oro at 9-1.

Of course the odds of MY BOY JACK, 30 to 1 in the morning line, and at 5 to 1 Friday night, is big news. The colt certainly has looked smashing in the mornings this week.

 

KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS from Thoroughblog

 

THE FIELD

Post Horse Derby Points  Earnings  Breeding – Comment and last 3 Beyer Figures starting with most recent

Post 1 Firenze Fire … 39 … $647,500 Poseidon’s Warrior – My Every Wish by Langfuhr
– disappointing this year, 81, 79, 83 50-1

Post 2 Free Drop Billy … 44 … $597,200 Union Rags – trensa by Giant’s Causeway
– steady,galloping type 83, 89, 90 30-1

Post 3 Promises Fulfilled … 52 …$256,480 Shackleford – Marquee Delivery by Marquetry
– speedster likely needs the front; 47, 96, 76 30-1

Post 4 Flameaway … 70 … $672,260 Scat Daddy – Vulcan Rose by Fusaichi Pegasus
– Canadian-bred is honest and hard trying but needs huge effort;l 93, 92, 93 30-1

Post 5 Audible … 110 … $803,520 Into Mischief – Blue Devil Bel by Gilded Time
– lost just once (debut in sprint); powerful; 99, 99, 84 8-1

Post 6 Good Magic … 134 … $1,838,400 Curlin – Glinda the Good by Hard Spun
– Champn 2yo of 2017; trained by Chad Brown; 95, 89, 100 (in BC Juv) 12-1

Post 7 Justify … 100 … $600,000 Scat Daddy – Stage Magic by Ghostzapper
– unbeaten, untested; will get acid test in 10 fur., Derby; 107, 101, 104 3-1

Post 8 Lone Sailor … 42 … $273,347 Majestic Warrior – Ambitious by Mr Greeley

– handsome fellow, late closer; 95, 78,, 72 50-1

Post 9 Hofburg … 40 … $320,000 Tapit – Soothing Touch by Touch Gold
– lightly raced, 3 starts, 2 this year 95, 84, 60 20-1

Post 10 My Boy Jack … 52 … $622,000 Creative Cause – Gold n Shaft by Mineshaft
– stretch runner lured new co-owner this week in West Pt. TB; 90. 94 93 30-1

Post 11 Bolt d’Oro … 104 … $980,000 Medaglia D’oro – Globe Trot by A P Indy
– tough guy could not catch Justify in SA Derby but has speed to chase; 102, 101, 91 8-1

Post 12 Enticed … 103 … $545,880 Medaglia D’Oro 0 It’s Tricky by Mineshaft
– high striding Godolphin colt comes from off the pace; 93, 95, 76 30-1

Post 13 Bravazo … 54 … $359,913 Awesome Again – Tiz o’ Gold by Cee’s Tizzy

– speedy type, 64 93, 89; Luis Contreras to ride 50-1

Post 14 Mendelssohn … 100 … $1,947,299 Scat Daddy – Leslie’s Lady by Tricky Creek
– said to have run a 106 Beyer in UAE Derby in Dubai on the pace 5-1

Post 15 Instilled Regard … 29 … $246,000 50-1
– stretch runner looks better suited to 1 mile; 90, 91, 92

Post 16 Magnum Moon … 150 … $1,140,000 Malibu Moon – Dazzling Song by Unbridled’s Song
– Undefeated; did not race at 2; 98, 97, 88 6-1

Post 17 Solomini … 54 … $716,000 Curlin – Surf Song by Storm Cat
– been chasing Magnum Moon, 92, 92, 93 30-1

Post 18 Vino Rosso … 107 … $572,500 Curlin – Mythical Bride by Street Cry (Ire)
– bred by Canadians John and Tanya Gunther; 90, 85, 98 12-1

Post 19 Noble Indy … 110 … $640,000 Take Charge Indy – Noble Maz by Storm Boot
– another Pletcher colt, 3 for 4 in his career via Lousiana 95, 91, 86 30-1

Post 20 Combatant … 32 … $350,000 Scat daddy – Border Dispute by Boundary
– 92, 92, 85 – late runner 50-1

So… let’s get down to the business of picking some horses that could be the top 3 finishers (Thoroughblog’s Top 4 picks came in 1 through 4 in the Oaks for a $1,300 superfecta)

Thoroughblog Picks:

As much as JUSTIFY looked incredible all week with his ground-devouring, long galloping stride, this colt only made his career debut in February. He has won all 3 of his career races with ease but it makes no sense to this corner to pick him to win. He was bred by British Columbia’s John Gunther and his daughter Tanya so it would be a monumental win if this colt can do it.

1-  GOOD MAGIC – The Champion 2-year-old of 2017

2 – JUSTIFY – A brilliant colt who could be this good.

3 – BOLT D’ORO – I have wavered on this colt all week, wondering if he has the closing power to win the Derby at the 10 furlongs.

4 – VINO ROSSO – The Wood Memorial winner is one of 4 horses in the race for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Who else looked great during Derby week? HOFBURG has only had races but has been very impressive, MY BOY JACK has been super in his preparation and MENDELSSOHN, while coming from Dubai, is a classic type who may give trainer Aidan O’Brien a thrill.

 

 

WONDER GADOT JUST MISSES IN KENTUCKY OAKS – 96 Beyer Speed Figure

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canadian-bred WONDER GADOT ran the race of her life in Friday’s KENTUCKY OAKS (Grade 1)  to be second, beaten just a head to MONOMOY GIRL in a super outing for the David Anderson bred filly.

Owned by Gary Barber and trained by Mark Casse, Wonder Gadot, whose jockey John Velazquez was dressed in the pink of the Oaks day colours, joined Monomoy Girl in the stretch but could not get past and was 2nd in the prestigious race run in 1:49.13 for 9 furlongs. She earned a lifetime best 96 Beyer Figure.

There was a claim of foul after the race by Velazquez on the winner but it did not amount to much and the result stood.

Mark Casse said following the race –

“The filly that won ran very game. There was contact (in the stretch) and it made our filly switch her leads. I think it was going to be really close, but I think the stewards made the right call. To take a horse down in this type of race, it would have to be pretty significant. As much as I’d like to say I would like to have won, I understand the ruling. I’m very proud of her. She’s definitely a wonder woman.

“She has a lot (of heart). I can tell you, you come back there (to the barn) in an hour and if you’re not careful she’ll kick you. She’s a tough filly, so I’m proud of her. The filly that won it is a super filly. I think the decision was fair. I think we were right in claiming foul because there was contact three times, and like I said, the third one caused us to jump our lead.

“I lost a tougher one in the Preakness last year (with Classic Empire). I feel blessed to do what I do and run in the races I do. Of course I want to win, but I’m proud that we ran well, that’s all I can ask. Some days we win them, some days we lose them.”

WONDER GADOT would be considered the heavy favourite for the WOODBINE OAKS now, should she be re-routed to Woodbine for the  June 9 race on Tapeta.

From Churchill Downs – The fifth-highest crowd of 113,510 fans watched Monomoy Girl capture the 144th running of the $1 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (Grade I) at Churchill Downs Racetrack. This follows a record-breaking Thursday (“Thurby”) crowd of 48,134.

Wagering from all-sources was the highest all-time on both the Kentucky Oaks program and on the Kentucky Oaks race.

Wagering from all-sources on the full Kentucky Oaks Day race card totaled $55.8 million, a 14% increase over both the 2017 total of $48.9 million and the previous wagering record of $49.0 million set in 2016. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Oaks race rose 18% to $17.5 million from 2017’s total of $14.9 million and increased 16% over the previous Oaks race record of $15.2 million in 2015.

On-track wagering on the Kentucky Oaks Day race card increased 17% to $10.9 million compared to 2017’s total of $9.3 million. On-track wagering on the Kentucky Oaks race of $3.0 million increased 26% compared to 2017’s total of $2.4 million.

OAKS – DERBY DOUBLE WILL PAYS:

Firenze Fire, $8120
Free Drop Billy, $356.20
Promises Fulfilled, $510.20
Flameaway, $331.10
Audible, $29.50
Good Magic, $35.30
Justify, $16.60
Lone Sailor, $376.90
Hofburg, $85.30
My Boy Jack, $99.80
Bolt d’Oro, $38.20
Enticed, $253.70
Bravazo, $655.20
Mendelssohn, $21
Instilled Regard, $658.90
Magnum Moon, $52
Solomini, $241.20
Vino Rosso, $76.20
Noble Indy, $296
Combatant, $662