WEDNESDAY MORNING at BREEDERS ‘CUP – CINDY PIERSON DULAY/HORSE-RACES.NET
BREAKING NEWS – BEHOLDER has poor scope following morning exercise and is SCRATCHED from Breeders’ Cup Classic…will race in 2016.
WOODBINE must adjust TAKEOUT numbers as per Breeders’ Cup plan..
WELCOME TO THOROUGHBLOG AND THE BREEDERS’ CUP!
It is the 2-day extravanganza we have been waiting for, the Classic showdown we have been waiting for and a chance to make some nice bets and big cash.
Analaysis and selections begin on today’s post, Ryan Dickey to start and myself and Jake shortly and will be put up again tomorrow.
First, some news and notes we found while surfing and watching:
*Watching the live feed and breakfast show from Keeneland, it is amazing to see one super-looking horse after another. The track has been sloppy and there has not been much turf training. The grass course will be soft for the Cup.
*A stud agreement has been made for LIAM’S MAP (Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile) and he will go to Lane’s End when he retires. There has been a lot of questioning of the decision to run this horse in the Dirt Mile, rather than the Classic
*AMERICAN PHAROAH and BEHOLDER both stayed in the barn yesterday – we wait for a glimpse of the big guy this morning, hopefully the track begins drying out.
*Meanwhile at Woodbine, horsepeople have been pounded by rain but high winds today should dry things up. Wednesday night’s races attracted $2.1 in wagering. Top Beyers on Wed. night were AWESOME OVERTURE – 87 and CAP IN HAND – 86. The latter is owned by Tucci Stables which has Riker in the Juvenile.
*Talkin Horses on CTV has it’s last show of 2015 on Saturday at 930 and 11:30 (CTVtwo) with Breeders’ Cup picks and notes, a cool feature on fans at the track and interviews with some of our stars of the season.
CANADIAN UPDATES
BARBARA MINSHALL’S SKY MARSHALL is co-owned by Bruce Lunsford and is in the Juvenile Turf. TERENCE DULAY/HORSE-RACES.NET
Woodbine-based Something Extra returns to familiar territory in what will be the 7-year-old gelding’s second attempt at the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Owned by John Menary and trainer Gail Cox, the son of Indian Charlie exits a 10th-place finish in a rained-off Woodford Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 3.
Earlier this year, Something Extra won the Shakertown over the Turf Sprint’s course and 5f, defeating subsequent Group I winner and fellow Turf Sprint competitor Undrafted. After a 10th-place finish last year, the Cox trainee will attempt to improve on a course over which he has never been out of the money. A top-four finish would make Something Extra racing’s newest millionaire.
“He loves it here,” Cox said. “Last year he didn’t cross the dirt very well (at Santa Anita) and that didn’t work out with him. He loves Keeneland’s course and it’s easy for us to get to. We came here to run on the turf last time, but I’m discounting that race. He was shut off on the first turn and then was very lucky not to go over the horses who broke down.
“He came out of that race very well, so we decided to just come back and get back on the turf,” Cox continued. “We want him to run his race. He can stalk or be on the lead. He goes fast pretty easily. The eight-draw is okay, especially with a little speed inside of us. He’s never been worse than third here on this grass and he’s feeling good and shipped really well.”
On Wednesday, the nine-time winner from 34 starts walked the shed row of Barn 68.
Tucci Stables’ Nick Gonzalez-trained Riker enters the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as the best 2yo in Canada, while sporting a perfect 4-for-4 record. The son of Include capped three consecutive stakes wins, all in gate-to-wire fashion, with a handy 1½-length tally in the Grey Stakes at Woodbine on Oct. 4. Bedded down in Barn 60, Riker has jogged both Tuesday and Wednesday on Keeneland’s sloppy main track.
He shipped really well and when we took him to the sloppy main track before,” Gonzalez said. “He enjoyed himself and took in the scenery. He hasn’t done anything wrong in his first four starts and that has us on a high. My clients have always dreamed of the Breeders’ Cup and the horse is doing great. We’re looking forward to participating on the big stage.
“We’ve always known since even before his first race that he could rate,” he continued.
“We have a lot of horses and train them in company and he has rated well when training. Plus, his jockey Jesse Campbell and I have always said that if he doesn’t break that we could easily get him to break. It just so happens that he’s left the gate well every time. He was looking around a bit and getting aggressive in the beginning last time, but then he went into a good galloping mode down the backstretch going two turns for the first time. He’s not one-dimensional.”
All four of Riker’s runs have been at Woodbine over its Polytrack main surface. It will be the 15-1 morning-line shot’s first attempt on a dirt surface.
“Primarily, my stable does training on the dirt training track at Woodbine. He breezed great on the training track in a minute and change the other day and I think he might be even better on the dirt.
“I wasn’t insulted by the 15-1, but I guess they’re skeptical against those he ran against at Woodbine over synthetic,” he continued. “He has great Beyers like a 90 and 84 and the way he gallops out is unbelievable. He’s gone from being a kid when I first got him to a young man and I think he is going to grow even more and get better.”
Ontario-bred CONQUEST DADDYO (Juvenile Turf) gallops in the Keeneland mud – TERENCE DULAY/Horse-races.net
SOFT TURF COULD SINK GOLDEN HORN
The Guardian
Greg Wood at Keeneland
Golden Horn, the Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner, left the quarantine barn here for the first time on Tuesday morning to exercise on Keeneland’s training track but he did so in steady rain and is expected to race on good ground at best when he makes his final start in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Five Arc winners have lined up for the Turf a few weeks later but all have been beaten and only one, Trempolino in 1987, has finished in the first three. Dancing Brave was fourth in 1986, Saumarez fifth in 1990, Subotica was also fifth in 1992 and Dylan Thomas sank without trace in the mud at Monmouth Park in 2007.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/27/soft-ground-keeneland-golden-horn-breeders-cup
**NEW $1.00 PICK SIX! Breeders’ Cup Betting Menu..
BET MINIMUMS
$1.00 – WIN, PLACE, SHOW
$1.00 – EXACTA, DISTAFF/CLASSIC DAILY DOUBLE, DAILY DOUBLE AND PICK 6
$.50 – TRIFECTA, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, SUPER Hi 5
$.10 – SUPERFECTA
TAKEOUT RATES
16% – WIN, PLACE, SHOW
19% – ALL OTHERS
Friday, October 30
Race 1 12:30 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 5
Race 2 1:03 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 3 1:37 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Race 4 2:11 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 5 2:47 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6
Race 6 3:30 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Race 7 4:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Race 8 4:50 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 9 Distaff 5:35 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER SpDD SupHi 5
Race 10 6:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER
Saturday, October 31
Race 1 11:00 AM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 5
Race 2 11:30 AM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
BREEDERS’ CUP Race 3 12:05 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Race 4 12:45 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 5 1:25 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 6 2:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6
Race 7 2:50 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 8 3:30 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Race 9 4:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4
Race 10 4:50 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD
Race 11 Classic 5:35 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER DD SupHi 5
Race 12 6:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER
CATCH A GLIMPSE, co-owned by Ontarians Jeff Begg and Mike Ambler, is a contender in the Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday – TERENCE DULAY/HORSE-RACES.NET
BREEDERS’ CUP DAY 1 ANALYIS AND SELECTIONS
Bet what you like, bet what I like, or just bet the #10 horse (part 1)
special to Thoroughblog
by Ryan Dickey
The Breeders’ Cup is again upon us, and just as autumn follows summer, handicappers who had waited patiently for the past performances sheets of all thirteen B.C. races to be published are inevitably suffering from “paralysis by analysis” at this point.
So, when it comes down to actually betting the races, you can study for hours upon hours only to be disappointed, or handsomely rewarded for doing your homework.
It is, however, important to bet horses that you like (or at least bet horses that you’d like to think has a legitimate shot to win) in order to have some fun.
You can bet the horses that you like. You can bet the horses that I like–as I’ll cover all thirteen Breeders’ Cup races in this space over two days.
Or, you can just simply bet the #10 horse in every race, and see if you’re a winner or loser once the Breeder’s Cup Classic concludes after two days of the best horse racing in the world.
The beauty of it, is that no one system will be deemed “better” or “worse” until the final tote-board lights up approximately two minutes after the gates swing open for the Classic at 5:35 ET on Halloween.
You know who you like, I’ll tell you who I like, and I’ll tell you why we could bet the #10 horse in each race.
FRIDAY’S BREEDERS’ CUP RACES
Juvenile Turf (1 mile on turf for two year old colts and geldings)
I like the #2 AZAR running for Todd Pletcher. He finished a game second to Isotherm in the G3 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont last out. Pletcher squeezes every ounce of get-up-and-go out of his freshmen runners, so he can train them hard as three-year olds in his quest to saddle all twenty runners in the Kentucky Derby one year.
The #8 AIROFORCE will probably take some money at the windows, as he won on this track in the G3 Bourbon Stakes last out at the beginning of the month. That race was on a yielding Keeneland turf, which is what it looks like we’ll have on Breeders’ Cup Friday at the very least. He can win, but the price will not be right.
We don’t want to go too far outside on this race, as the configuration of this distance at Keeneland will have the runners hitting the first turn relatively quickly (though not as quickly as the next race), but #11 HOLLYWOOD DON returns to his preferred surface after a “clunker” on dirt where he only finished third in a G1 stakes. He’ll be live, as he’s installed at 10-1 on the morning line, and exits that race that was not even impressive for the winner.
OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
Of course, in the first race, the horse I like the most just so happens to be the #10 CONQUEST DADDYO. Full disclosure–I’m a Conquest Stables stark-raving fan (they do everything the right way, from top to bottom). It’s hard to separate your heart from your wallet when betting sometimes. However, I’ve assured myself that I like this horse for the right reasons: he’s coming off a G2 turf win in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine; his last race was a vast improvement over the one before that, but his work tab shows NO SIGN of the dreaded bounce; and Mark Casse is a very capable trainer who deserves to be the conditioner who brings conquest their first Breeders’ Cup winner.
Exacta and Trifecta boxes 2,10,11 are the way to go, with straight WIN wagers on CONQUEST DADDYO. In multi-race bets, add AIROFORCE, and the Irish horse #6 BIRCHWOOD (IRE) if you feel like going deep in this race.
Dirt Mile (1 mile on dirt for three years old and up)
As stated above, the configuration of this race will have the starting gate VERY CLOSE to the first turn, which is nearly a deathknell for those who caught outside gates. Luckily, the horses that are placed the furthest outside happen to be ones that can safely be tossed out of the equation. I think you can look no higher than the #9 TAPITURE to have a shot to win this race. Fifteen of Tapiture’s seventeen career starts have been in graded stakes company. Yes, he only has five wins to his credit, but he has very few “dud” races. he comes to the track ready to compete. He will NOT be a favorite to win.
“Everybody’s” favorite to win this race will be #3 LIAM’S MAP who eschewed running in the Classic to basically assure himself of a more-than-legitimate-chance to dominate this B.C. race. Listed as an even money morning line shot, he got a beauty of a draw, and it’s hard to beat him on paper.
Races are run on dirt and grass (and…ew…synthetic surfaces), not paper. Here’s a horse worth taking a shot to beat Liam’s Map: #1 RED VINE. He won’t get out in front of a blistering pace like Liam’s Map will do here, in an all-out assault to wire the field, but only one time in Red Vine’s career has his second-to-last call been a worse position than his finish. That came two back when Beholder beat the boys in the Pacific Classic. With the inside post, he can save ground and energy tracking Liam’s Map, and if the favorite makes a misstep, or a mistake, Red Vine could pounce.
OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
As I mentioned earlier, I find it hard to pick a horse outside of the nine gate, but let’s not split hairs here, #10 VALID has some arguments that make sense (valid arguments if you’re cheesy).
He has a nose for the wire, and holds plenty of back-class. With the outside-ish post, with double-digit morning line odds, and everyone and their brother betting on Liam’s Map, it’s good to be a contrarian. If you bet all #10 horses, and this is your only winner, you will win money on the weekend. Expect closer to 15-1 odds.
Feel free to single Liam’s Map if you want to keep your multi-race bet wagers’ costs down, but don’t cry if he loses as an “easy single”–there are few such things. On the other hand, trying to flat-out “play against” him is nearly as foolish, so moderation may be the key here. Play Red Vine AND Liam’s Map in horizontals. Key Liam’s Map over Tapiture, Red Vine, and Valid in Exactas and Trifectas. If you have deeper pockets, box all four.
Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 mile on turf for two year old fillies)
I really like #7 SAPPHIRE KITTEN in this race. She is quickly learning how to be a racehorse, and I feel she will be a force to be reckoned with as a three year old in 2016. She looked a bit green in the G3 Jessamine here at Keeneland last out, as she went five wide, and didn’t switch leads until too late in the stretch in her duel with race winner #8 HARMONIZE, who is the morning line favorite in this race.
If you watch that race, and you know anything about handicapping, what would you rather have: an even-money favorite who barely won by a neck, or a green, but very game 9-1 shot who traveled more distance and just got edged-out of a victory? If you say the favorite because she won, you’re just being surly at this point. Every handicapper looks for value. Trainer Joe Sharp’s Sapphire Kitten is that.
So other than the 1-2 finishers in the track prep for this race, who else has a shot? How about #3 ALICE SPRINGS (IRE)–her race line SCREAMS that she wants to go another furlong or even two. “Ran on comfortably”, “stayed on”, “one pace”, and “kept one pace” are how the finishes of her races have been noted. She may be a miler. She may be a router. She may be Aiden O’Brien’s first B.C. winner of 2015.
OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
#10 ILLUMINATE (IRE) has won three of her four career starts, and finished second last out in a Group 1 stakes at Newmarket. That’s class. That’s a European horse you want to have in a turf race in the Breeders’ Cup. I like Sapphire Kitten the most, but if you just pick the #10, you have a very good shot here.
In multi-race bets, feel free to play Sapphire Kitten, Harmonize, and Illuminate. If you want to go one more, Alice Springs is your wildcard. In verticals, play Exacta and Trifecta keys with the #7 and #10 on top, and #3, #7, #8, and #10 underneath.
Distaff (1-⅛ mile on dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up)
The most “wide-open” race on Friday (and maybe of all 13 B.C. races) is the Distaff. With Beholder opting to face the boys yet again in the Classic, this race became very interesting in a hurry. Fourteen females will run. Untapable drew-in, but scratched, so the Also Eligible #15 PEACE AND WAR drew-in to replace the defending Distaff winner.
My top choice is #4 Stopchargingmaria. She’s coming off a bit of a layoff, but her workouts show no sign of rust. Todd Pletcher training with Javier Castellano up is what you want in a Breeders’ Cup race if you’re an owner–you know you’ll get their best effort every time. The only time Castellano has failed to guide Stopchargingmaria to a finish hitting the board was her last race–the G1 Personal Ensign where she finished fourth after leading for a large portion of the race. She comes in rested, and ready.
You can make a case for almost every other runner in this race to win except for #3 SALAMA, #13 WARREN’s VENEDA, and Peace and War. Every other filly or mare can win.
My second choice is #7 WEDDING TOAST, but buyer beware, she MAY be a “Belmont horse” who runs well in New York only. Her only career race here at Keeneland produced a fourth-place finish. It’s the only time in her career that she missed the board. But, her speed figures, her front-running style, and her class makes her a must-play in exotics and multi-race bets.
I also like #14 SHEER DRAMA, but her far outside post greatly hampers her. She could hit the board, but will be backed heavily. She’s a very classy five year old mare who is racing at her best right now. A contender.
OR, YOU CAN JUST BET THE #10 HORSE:
After getting beaten by Beholder on August 1 at Del Mar, #10 Yahilwa took two months off from racing, then returned to finish third in the G1 Spinster here at Keeneland at the same distance. She was bested by #12 GOT LUCKY and Untapable. At 20-1 on the morning line, she may be forgotten at the windows, and has “extreme value”. This is a #10 horse that can REALLY give you a high R.O.I. if she springs the upset. There’s a better chance that she finishes near the top than near the bottom.
Betting this race is difficult! Basically, you need to play the “ALL minus #3, #13, and #15 button” on multi-race bets, as this can be anyone’s race. In verticals, pick your best four and box them in Exactas and Trifectas. I’ll be playing a decent-sized WIN bet on Stopchargingmaria.
Also, there’s the Distaff/Classic Daily Double, where you need to win both the Distaff on Friday and Classic on Saturday. If you REALLY like a particular horse in the Classic, maybe go ALL/ “that horse”. For me, I’m going Stopcghargingmaria/ Keen Ice.
Part 2 to follow. Best of luck on Friday!
