Getting word that MILWAUKEE MIST may be scratched…
Please enjoy a Queen’s Plate analysis from our guest and friend RYAN DICKEY and check out the latest Woodbine news – see you at the Plate on Sunday!
QUEEN’S PLATE – 156
ACADEMIC – by Janis Maine
The storylines are irresistible. The best Canadian-bred 3-year-olds that are still in action are going to be in the gate at 5:38 p.m. at Woodbine for the 1 1/4 mile Canadian classic – the Gallop for the Guineas, the Queen’s Plate.
What a turn of events from March when we had AMI’S FLATTER and DANZIG MOON as the two overwhelming Plate favourites.
Ami’s Flatter is here trying to give Ivan Dalos his first Plate win (Ami’s Holiday came close last year). Danzig Moon sadly broke down in his first run at Woodbine on the Polytrack and was put down.
CONQUEST CURLINATE developed into a major contender this winter at Oaklawn. He was even under consideration for the Belmont Stakes after his big runs in the Peter Pan and Illinois Derby. He finally was shipped back to Ontario where he was 2nd in the Plate Trial.
But then more bad luck for Mark Casse team. The colt was galloping Thursday morning when another horse veered towards him causing him to check sharply. He came out of that incident with an injury so serious, he has been retired from racing.
Conquest Stables have Conquest Boogaloo in the field, a fellow who has had 2 terrible trips in succession.
And also in the winter, DANISH DYNAFORMER was blossoming for Roger Attfield and owner/breeder Charles Fipke. He becamse a hotshot in Florida and Kentucky and he won the Trial with some ease.
But then his jockey, Luis Contreras, reverted back to Ami’s Flatter after the Trial, leaving Danish Dynaformer. Attfield selected Patrick Husbands, who has had a very soft season so far in 2015. Husbands’ last stakes win for Attfield came in 2011 on Oregon Lady. He rode Check Your Soul for Attfield in the Plate that year.
The filly for this year is ACADEMIC – a feisty gal who won’t take any you-know-what. Her story is here:
The Bear, Danny Dion, and his longtime trainer Reade Baker, have not won the Plate. They have paid their dues and they deserve a Plate. They also have Bear at Last in the field.
This filly won the Oaks, however, and she is already a star.
Chiefswood Stable has won a Plate – with Niigon, who died suddenly years ago but they have a son of his, PORTREE (Porter) in the field. He is trained by Stuart Simon who has climbed his way from racing horses at Marquis Downs in Saskatchewan to making a good name for himself in Ontario.
Gus Schickedanz would love to relive the glory of Wando with his son Sweet Grass Creek, who will have blinkers on for the Plate.
What about SHAMAN GHOST? He is a popular pick in the race but he has been quiet since winning the Marine Stakes almost 2 months ago. He has trained well according to some sources and his trainer Brian Lynch is in from New York this week. Stronach Stables have won the Plate before.
SHAMAN GHOST
BREAKING LUCKY is drop-dead gorgeous. He is owned by relatively new owners Gunpowder Stable of Tom Keithley. The colt has potential but is he good enough just yet?
MILWAUKEE MIST, bred by Sean Fitzhenry, is back in Ontario after many troubled trips in allowance races. Michael Burns/WEG photo
RYAN DICKEY’S QUEEN’S PLATE ANALYSIS
CONQUEST BOOGALOO figures in Ryan Dickey’s Plate analysis. Conquest Stables photo
(@rdickey249)
Sunday’s 156th edition of the $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate at Woodbine (race 11, 1-¼ miles on the all-weather track, for 3-year olds, at 5:38 pm EST) has plenty of story-lines.
The favorite, Danish Dynaformer, runs for conditioner Roger Attfield who is looking to win his record-breaking ninth Queen’s Plate. Half of the field’s runners are trained by three men: Attfield, Mark Casse, and Reade Baker. Add a filly to the mix (Woodbine Oaks longshot winner Academic, who’ll get 5 lb. weight-relief from the boys), and a horse that has yet to break his maiden (#3 Ault–who has zero chance of breaking his maiden here), and you have all the makings of an exciting race.
As always, there are contenders and pretenders. Let’s clear ourselves of the “also-rans” to begin the analysis of this race.
As mentioned, Ault is looking for his first career win for trainer Daniel Vella. Jockey David Moran will take the reins and although he may not finish last, hitting the board in this race is out of the question. The two horses that could be vying for last place may be Baker’s #9 Breaking Lucky, who should be used as a rabbit in this race, and the #10 Easy Indigo, racing for trainer Nicholas Gonzalez, with Emma Jane Wilson aboard.
Another horse that could be forwardly placed early, but not be in contention at the end is #6 Sweet Grass Creek, trying for trainer Michael Keogh. Rounding out the “pretenders” list is #13 Bear At Last, another Reade charge, who finished 7th in the Plate Trial, but had to deal with the breakdown of the late Danzig Moon who broke down during that race.
With fourteen horses scheduled to make the gate, we have eliminated five who have very little chance of winning the race. This does not, however, mean that there are nine horses who have a “legitimate shot” of winning the Plate. Horses that have a fighter’s chance of hitting the board, and filling out triactors and superfecta tickets include:
#2 Oakton, who is the second-best of the two horses running for Mark Casse in this race. He should be forwardly placed, with Academic, Sweet Grass Creek and Breaking Lucky.
#5 Billy’s Star who is Attfield’s “other horse” in this race. It’s important to note that Attfield’s “go-to” jockey at Woodbine Eurico Da Silva has this mount, and not the favorite Danish Dynaformer. At 15-1 on the morning line, he could add some value at the tail-end of exotic tickets.
#11 Portree, who finished fourth in the Plate Trial–a race that he was at one point leading. The gelding was 38-1 in the Trial, and is 12-1 on the morning line for the Queen’s Plate. If he can avoid trouble again, he may hit the board–at a price.
This leaves us with six horses who are the “contenders”. Of these six, my LONGSHOT play would be on #12 Milwaukee Mist (30-1). Although he’s the only horse in the race to never have run at Woodbine, and half of his starts (including his last three) have been on the turf, he has kept up with some very good three-year olds–Danish Dynaformer being one of them. Milwaukee Mist finished second behind Danish Dynaformer in an allowance race on the yielding turf at Keeneland in April. A large SHOW bet on Milwaukee Mist may be the “best bet” of the race–high risk/high reward.
Two horses that skipped the Plate Trial, and haven’t raced in the 50 days since the GIII Marine Stakes at Woodbine are #1 Shaman Ghost (7/2) and #14 Ami’s Flatter (6-1). Shaman Ghost, the son of Ghostzapper, trained by Brian Lynch, retains the services of jockey Rafael Hernandez, who was aboard when this colt won the Marine by a half-length. Ami’s Flatter, who finished seventh in the Marine, was a player in some Kentucky Derby prep races, and has finished fourth or better in three of his four last races–all graded stakes. He has the class, but is the layoff and extreme outside post too much to overcome?
We are left with three horse that have the “best chance” to win the race. One is the filly, #4 Academic, who, as noted, will race carrying 121 lbs, while the boys carry 126 lbs. She was an afterthought at the betting windows for the Woodbine Oaks, then came home paying $135.30 on a $2 win bet. She had a good enough Beyer figure in her last race to be a contender here, keeps Justin Stein on board, and of Reade’s three horses in the race, is his best shot to win. Play her in exactors and triactors.
Danish Dynaformer, breaking from the #7 post, is the favorite on the morning line, and will be the post-time favorite–the only thing that is a near-certainty in this race. Luis Contreras won the Plate Trial aboard Danish Dynaformer, and he’s the only jockey to ride this colt more than once in his six-race career. Contreras will be aboard Ami’s Flatter on Sunday. Patrick Husbands, who has yet to ride for Roger Attfield this year, will be the sixth jockey to take the reigns in the son of Dynaformer’s seven races. Although on paper this colt looks like the one to beat, his post-time odds will be less-than-favorable.
Which leaves us with the horse to bet to win–#8 Conquest Boogaloo (8-1 morning line) It’s been a rough week for Conquest Stables, as they lost a contender for this race to a career-ending injury while training in Conquest Curlinate. It’s impossible to back this horse without mentioning that Conquest Boogaloo has had some troubled trips–in consecutive races, nonetheless. He had to dodge the breakdown of Danzig Moon in the Plate Trial, and ran into a wall of horses two back in the Marine Stakes, where he finished eighth. No horse in this race has gone the 10 furlongs that they will face today, and this son of Scat Daddy seems like he will get better longer. He should settle mid-pack, behind the first tier of horses mentioned above, and have the stamina to pass those tiring front-runners, and if he holds off Danish Dynaformer, he can win at a respectable price. He is my play on top, and in multi-race bets.
Betting suggestions for $20 players:
$5 WIN #8 Conquest Boogaloo
$5 SHOW #12 Milwaukee Mist
$2 Exactor box #7, #8 (Danish Dynaformer and Conquest Boogaloo)
$1 Triactor box #4,#7,#8 (Academic, Danish Dynaformer and Conquest Boogaloo)
Betting suggestions for $50 players:
$20 SHOW #12 Milwaukee Mist
$2 Exactor #8 Conquest Boogaloo OVER 1,2,4,5,7,11,12,14 ($16)
$1 Triactor #7 Danish Dynaformer OVER #8 Conquest Boogaloo OVER ALL ($12)
$1 Triactor #12 Milwaukee Mist OVER #7 Danish Dynaformer AND #8 Conquest Boogaloo [12/7,8/7,8] ($2)
Ryan Dickey (@rdickey249) is a freelance Thoroughbred and harness racing blogger, and sportswriter/photojournalist. He is the President of Firehouse Racing Stables, LLC (currently a zero-horse stable!). His work has been featured on leading horse racing websites, as well as online and print editions of local newspapers in Southeast Michigan where he is a full-time firefighter/paramedic. You can see ALL of his published material at: www.facebook.com/RDickey249
