Out of the fog in Dubai – VANESSA NG PHOTO – courtesy horse-races.net
Good morning racing fans!
Dubai is sent to get underway with its $35 million Dubai World Cup card.
On this side of the world, there is a cool card at Gulfstream, that begins later on, with the highlight being the FLORIDA DERBY at 6:30 tonight. Whew! That is 11 hours of racing fun from just those 2 places.
Gulfstream’s RAINBOW 6 is a mandatory payout today which gives the small bettors a chance at a piece. I is a difficult series of races today however so you must take a stand in one or two races to keep the cost down.
Before my thoughts on the Rainbow 6, the AGCO dropped its Race-Day medication ban ruling yesterday (at just after 5 p.m.), quickly leading to a division of thoughts.
Three directives were posted yesterday including the race-day medication ban (Lasix is still allowed):
RAINBOW 6 MANDATORY PAYOUT at Gulfstream
Carryover currently at $2.6 million
RACE 9 – Maiden allowance on the grass and a tough way to begin the sequence.
Good idea to check the odds before this race to see if there is a horse taking a lot of betting support.
From the experienced horses in the field – OVERBOLD – #2 – ran better with blinkers last time and has had some good workout times since his latest. Trainer Bill Mott. SOCIAL PARANOIA is logical off the layoff for Todd Pletcher although he has shown a habit of stalling in the late stages. Canadian-bred MAYAN GHOST has been working okay with the likes of stars MELMICH and AA’S AZULA’S ARCH.
The beginners are headed by MACHINE LEARNING (Trainer Chad Brown does miss with these too often) and Canadian bred SCATTERED STRIKES, who came to Florida from Fair Grounds and has had positive workout notes from the Daily Racing Form clockers.
1 – SOCIAL PARANOIA
2 – SCATTERED STRIKES
3 – OVERBOLD
4 – MACHINE LEARNING
Race 10 – The SAND SPRINGS STAKES.
PROCTOR’S LEDGE is the best mare in the field and she runs well when she is fresh but she has to hurry at 1 mile. VALEDICTORIAN has the tactical speed and super form to be very tough.
1 – VALEDICTORIAN
2 – PROCTOR’S LEDGE
3 – ANDINA DEL SUR
RACE 11 – tough allowance race/OPTIONAL CLAIMING.
RESTORING HOPE will be favoured as he comes from the Jason Servis barn which is winning at a 45% clip. The colt ran in the Belmont Stakes last June as Justify’s ‘rabbit’.
Horses coming out of the March 3 race won by Be Gone Daddy are plentiful. Remember, that race featured a wild early pace and the top 3 came from far back and wide. CANDYGRAM had a dreadful trip out of that race and GLEASON’S wasn’t much better.
SO LONG CHUCK had big workout recently.
1 – RESTORING HOPE
2 – CANDYGRAM
3 – GLEASON
4 – ROCK DOC
race 12 – another allowance race, this one on turf and Breeders’ Stakes winner Neepawa (Chiefswood Stable) gets his 4-year-old season gets underway.
At one mile and without a ton of speed evident (hard to know if the sprinters stretching out in distance will pepper the pace), it is a tricky read.
The works on PAGLIACCI since his first level allowance win are super, but it took him a long time to get past that first class and this is a tougher class.
AMBASSADOR JIM is a favourite of mine as he has developed nicely this winter and he had a big workout since his first allowance class win. BATTLE OF BLENHEIM is obviously a delicate sort but take note that he comes out of a race won by Dr Edgar, who won the Grade 3 Appleton yesterday.
1 – BATTLE OF BLENHEIM
2 – AMBASSADOR JIM
3 PAGLIACCI
4 SECOND MATE
RACE 13 – PAN AMERICAN GRADE 2
A famous race. There is hardly any early speed in the field so it will tough for the deep closers to get going, Canadian bred MELMICH has found he loves grass and he is a hard trying dude. VILLAGE KING may lead for a long time and CANESSAR is going to be happier on firmer grass. BIGGER PICTURE and FOCUS GROUP are factors.
1 – CANESSAR
2 – BIGGER PICTURE
3 FOCUS GROUP
RACE 14 – FLORIDA DERBY – GRADE 1
If HIDDEN SCROLL wins, he goes into the Kentucky Derby as the possible favourite (if he wins big). But he has had just 2 starts and is still learning the game. Not sure I am wild about the Fountain of Youth Stakes the way that race set up as Hidden Scroll was burned by a wild pace and the top 2, CODE OF HONOR and BOURBON WAR took advantage. HARVEY WALLBANGER has had big works since his Holy Bull upset win but he needs to run faster. MAXIMUM SECURITY is the wild card as he is unbeaten in 3 races, all sprints. He does have breeding to handle up to 1 1/16 miles. CURRENT races on dirt for the first time (fast track) and has been working well.
1 – HIDDEN SCROLL
2 – HARVEY WALLBANGER
3 – CURRENT
4 – CODE OF HONOR
