Good morning! Today at Gulfstream Park it is a chance for the sma
By: horse-canada |
Today at Gulfstream Park it is a chance for the small bettor to get a piece of a big purse. The RAINBOW 6 has a mandatory payout which means that no matter how many winning tickets there are for most winners, everyone gets a share. (The Rainbow 6 usually gets paid out only if there is a SINGLE winning ticket with some 30 percent carrying over in a jackpot).
With $1.5 million carrying over, the action with be brisk and there could be multi-millions up for grabs once all the dust is settled.
It is not an easy sequence (how many of them are?) with a few tough maiden races including a nasty $12,500 maiden claimer to start the bet off.
Below are thoughts of each race in the Rainbow 6 from Thoroughblog with pedigree notes, workout notes etc.
I have outlined each race for those with just a few dollars to wager and those with a bit more to play with.
RACE 7 – Tough way to start with maidens for just $12,500 claiming
The favourite will be VALID EXCHANGE, halving in claiming price for a return to the dirt (this will be his first race on a fast dirt track, as long as it is not raining). He went fast on the pace last time as the favourite and while he folded, he could be the quickest early in this race and might lead all the way (although it is 6 1/2 furlongs).
He has to be used but there are several others who could wake wup and it depends on if you really want to get past the first leg which will determine how many to use.
Canadian based horses OH DANNY BEAR (newly gelded and shortening up in distance), QUENCH MY THIRST (several troubled trips at Woodbine and dropping in class for first dirt try) and IN GUS WE TRUST (dropping in class off quick workout) are all intriguing. First time starter DRILL DOWN DUDE has decent workouts and a real flyer is BYRON BAY, off a big drop for a good trainer.
Small tickets (in order of preference) – OH DANNY BEAR, VALID EXCHANGE, QUENCH MY THIRST, IN GUS WE TRUST
Bigger tickets – OH DANNY BEAR, VALID EXCHANGE, QUENCH MY THIRST, IN GUS WE TRUST, plus DRILL DOWN DUDE, BYRON BAY and either horse drawing in from the ALSO ELIGIBLE LIST (15 or 16).
RACE 8 – allowance/optional on turf, many 1 and 2-time winners against 7-time winner REAGAN’S ODYSSEY, early 8 to 5 favourite. Reagan’s Odyssey has been 2nd 3 times in her last 4 races at this level but has good Beyer Figures and she was claimed last time by a trainer who wins 36% of the time first off the claim. Speedy HERA is making her 2nd start since October, was headstrong last time but could be more settled and she has some back class. Mark Casse trainee DYNATOWN ran huge last time at a very short distance but is bred for this trip.
Small tickets – REAGAN’S ODYSSEY- HERA
Bigger tickets – REAGAN’S ODYSSEY- HERA – DYNATOWN –
RACE 9 -maiden fillies on the grass and this is a very tough race to sort out.
The favourite, CAN’T BUY ME LOVE ran a super race in her first start as she rallied wide to grab the lead and just get caught. The pace was fast that day and helped her but it should be fast in this race too.
After her it is a big of a crapshoot. The first time starter SHADOW PLAY is by the great Galileo and her workout times have been good. High % trainer Jorge Navarro sends out MIASOLOMIAH who was 3 to 1 first time out and expected to do better but she has some breeding for the longer distance. Like the grass breeding on Bohemian Bourbon and Aamdrea ran super in her 2nd race of the year.
Small tickets – CAN’T BUY ME LOVE, AMANDREA, SHADOW PLAY
Bigger tickets – CAN’T BUY ME LOVE, AMANDREA, SHADOW PLAY, MIASOLOMIAH, BOHEMIAN BOURBON, EBULLIENT
RACE 10 – Nice 3yo colts here and eye-popping debut winner GLOBAL CAMPAIGN could be any kind of horse. He is bred to handle the 2 turn distance and has worked in good time since the opener. I loved Standard Deviation in the Breeders’ Cup but he flopped and he has been in re-boot mode for Chad Brown. HE’s Smokin Hot ran a sizzler last time in an optional claiming race and Frank Stronach’s Awesome D J had a nice debut win in Maryland for another trainer (his workouts at Palm Meadows have reportedly been only so-so according to clockers).
Small tickets – GLOBAL CAMPAIGN
Bigger tickets – GLOBAL CAMPAIGN, STANDARD DEVIATION,
RACE 11 – The El Prado Stakes around 2 turns on turf and it is a big field, short run to the first turn and, well, just another tough race to sort out.
The favourite should be MR CUB based on the 101 Beyer Figure he earned in his return fro a layoff and the fact that the winner that day came back to win the Pegasus Turf for trainer Chad Brown. Mr Cub has had lots of time to recover from that big effort. HEMBREE won the the Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes at Woodbine last year and has back class and a fast workout on Feb. 4. (going better than mate Vici who is in this race). SIEM RIEP has not raced in quite some time (toss out his last race on very soft turf) and he is speedy but he might have pressure. SIDING SPRING for Mark Casse has back class and KRAMPUS was a bit delayed in traffic last time.
Small tickets: MR CUB – HEMBREE – KRAMPUS
Bigger tickets: MR CUB – HEMBREE – KRAMPUS – SIDING SPRING, SIEM RIEP
RACE 12 – Maiden fillies at 1 mile on the grass and the likely favourite is first time starter CAFE AMERICANO.
Why? Well she is from the amazing Chad Brown barn. She cost $625,000 and is by premier sire Medaglia D’Oro and from Canadian champ Roxy Gap who won first time out in her career and was a stakes winner on turf as well as the main track; This is a long and leggy filly who has been getting good marks in workouts. I saw her workout on Jan 13 on www.xbtv.com and she worked nicely inside unraced Comic City.
To these eyes, the field appears to have a lot of speedy types (before scratches are announced). LADY WORTHINGTON is in post 11 and will have to get going quickly from out there to get to the front. She has been heavily bet in both career races at very short distances and she tries 1 mile but from a mare who was a sprinter only. There are others in this field who have shown speed and may get tired chasing this gal.
several gals are making their first start on turf: Eternally (modest turf breeding), Clockstrikestwelve (above average turf breeding), Delcapem (above average turf) and Modern Muse (good turf breeding).
I liked the way Sunny Dale ran first time out as she eventually settled down in that debut, stalked on the rail, lacked a bit of room and then finished evenly. She may have a good stretch bid with that race under her belt and her trainer wins 29% of them time with his maidens making their 2nd career start. Not sure what to do with Silver Kitten out in post 12. She battled on the pace in her latest from an inside post but the pace will be much faster here, perhaps she will try to come from off the pace? She comes out of a fast race.
Small tickets (picks in order of preference) – Cafe Americano – Sunny Dale – Silver Kitten
Bigger tickets – Cafe Americano – Sunny Dale – Silver Kitten – Delcapem- Lady Worthington
if you play a “small ticket” as mapped out for 20 cents the cost would be about $43.00.
The Bigger ticket would cost a lot more. (Multiple the number of horses in each race and then divide by 5).