The parade of fascinating Kentucky Derby (G1) stepping-stone races continues this weekend with the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas, with the exciting colt Timberlake making his three-year-old debut. The Rebel is worth a whopping $1.25 million and is a 1 1/16 mile race with a short run to the first turn.
There are 13 sophomores entered in the Rebel and Timberlake, winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last October, has been pegged as the 6-to-5 morning line favourite. The son of Into Mischief, trained by Brad Cox, has a solid advantage over his rivals as the only graded stakes winner in the field and one of just three stakes winners in the group. He also shows a pair of 93 Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races, the top numbers in the field, and will start from post seven, right in the middle of the gate.
Timberlake will be all the rage, but there are reasons to look at playing a few longshots: the colt has only raced around two turns once and he was fourth, beaten eight lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall. He shows five workouts at Fair Grounds in New Orleans including a fast five furlongs on Feb. 10 in 59.20 but the preparation is a bit light.
Here are three longshots to use in your bet365ca wagers on the Rebel, which is race 11 on Saturday with an approximate post time of 6:23 p.m. Eastern:
#9 – LAGYNOS. I am predicting that this Steve Asmussen trainee, who is listed at 20-to-1 in the morning line odds, will have better tactics in the Rebel than he did in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan.1. Lagynos was an impressive allowance winner at Churchill Downs around two turns in November, coming from just off a slow pace over a slow surface, However, jockey Joel Rosario asked the colt for more run out of the gate in the Smarty Jones and once the colt sped to the lead along the rail, he was soon joined by two others and a breakneck pace battle ensued.
Lagynos did okay to stay on to be sixth, just 4 1/2 lengths behind Catching Freedom at the finish and that winner came back to be a close third in last weekend’s Risen Star Stakes (G2). Oh, and the fifth-place finisher in the Smarty Jones, Mystik Dan, came back to win the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn on Feb. 3.
Keith Asmussen, the trainer’s son, will ride Lagynos in the Rebel.
#6 – DIMATIC. He’s a son of one of the world’s leading sires, Gun Runner, who sired the winner of last weekend’s Risen Star, Sierra Leone. This is another Steve Asmussen trainee and he has enlisted red-hot jockey Tyler Gafflione, who rode Sierra Leone last weekend. Dimatic is lightly raced and still green; he veered out sharply on his way to his maiden victory on Feb. 3 at Oaklawn, so Asmussen will add blinkers to the colt’s equipment. Dimatic is listed at 8-to-1 in the morning line.
#8 – NEXT LEVEL. What a big race this colt ran in his latest, an allowance event at one mile on a wet track at Oaklawn. The son of Vino Rosso rallied very wide and lost a lot of ground but missed by only a head in an impressive run. He’s not the most consistent colt, but he’s 30-to-1 and his owner, the Don’t Tell My Wife Stable, and trainer Keith Asmussen won last year’s Rebel with the 18-to-1 Confidence Game.
$10 to win/place #9 LAGYNOS = $20.00
$2 Exacta Box 6, 7, 8, 9 = $24.00
