Handicapping Presented by bet365: The E.P. Taylor Stakes

The toughest race to handicap on Woodbine’s Turf Champions Day, September 14, just might be the race with the smallest field, the six-horse E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1). A world-class field from France, England and Canada will race 1 1/4 miles on the Taylor turf course and it is race seven, the first leg of the Power Pick 6.

Why is this race so perplexing? Not only is each entrant a superb graded stakes winner in top form, but the race set-up may prove to be the deciding factor on which filly or mare is able to take home the bulk of the $750,000 purse.

Of note is that the E.P. Taylor is being held three weeks earlier than usual this year. The race has been paired with the Canadian International but with that race not being held this year, the Taylor was moved to Woodbine Mile day. The Taylor is not a Win and You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup, but is still an important stepping-stone towards the World Championships.

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Europeans vs North Americans

This year’s Taylor field has three local mares meeting a trio from overseas, although one of those, (6) CINDERELLA’S DREAM, has been racing in New York this summer for trainer Charlie Appleby.

Shippers have dominated the Taylor with 16 wins from the last 20 editions and nine of those were invading from Europe.

The success of the Europeans in North American turf races comes from the fact that most races overseas are run on the turf. There is a much larger population of grass horses in Europe than there is in North America. Races in Europe are also held on turf courses that might be firm, good or even bog-like. The majority of turf races run in Europe tend to feature a modest early pace and a strong, late pace whereas the emphasis in racing in North American is predominantly speed.

Cinderella’s Dream, a three-year-old filly bred in England, arrived in New York for the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks on July 6 and at 7-to-2 odds showed an impressive turn of foot into the stretch to come from eighth to win by almost a length in course record time, She came right back and won the Saratoga Oaks (G2) as the heavy favourite.

Another factor to note is that the European entrants will often be administered the anti-bleeding medication Lasix (not allowed in Europe) in their North American debuts. First-time with Lasix can be an assist to any starter that has shown signs of being a bleeder overseas. All three European starters in his year’s Taylor – (1) BLUSH, (5) BLUE ROSE CEN and Cinderella’s Dream – are racing with first-time Lasix.

How will the race be run?

Handicapping the tactics a jockey will use in a race only adds confusion to the handicapping puzzle, in particular in a small field.

However, this year’s E.P. Taylor field does have a pair of mares who like to race on or very close to the early pace. Last year’s Taylor winner and Canadian Horse of the Year (3) Fev Rover (Ire) led all the way to win the 2023 edition of the race over a turf course that was close to yielding. Her arch rival (2) Moira, who is much happier with a firm turf course, came from off the pace to finish third.

Moira recently defeated Fev Rover by a head in an exciting renewal of the Beverly D. Stakes (G2) at Colonial Downs.

Fev Rover will have to contend with the fleet-footed Full Count Felicia on the pace in the Taylor. This mare is new to Woodbine, having won her second outing here on Aug. 10 in the Canadian Stakes (G2). The Kevin Attard trainee tends to run on the lead in races longer than one mile and this will be her first attempt at 1 1/4 miles. Expect her to be trying to steal this race.

Cinderella’s Dream was only about four lengths off the pace in her Saratoga Oaks win and she figures to be tracking the pace along with Moira and Blue Rose Cen. (1) Blush, winner of three straight races in France, tends to break slowly in her races so she might be towards the back of the field.

The pace will not be heated but it may be testing enough that Fev Rover, who is slightly better in shorter races, and Full Count Felcia may have a hard time holding off the closers.

The verdict

Canada’s darling, Moira, the 2022 Horse of the Year, is better than ever as a five-year-old. And remember, she almost won the 2022 E.P. Taylor, missing by just a neck before she was disqualified. Moira’s recent win in the Beverly D followed one of her best career efforts in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga when she was second with a brilliant late rally in fast time. In fact, Moira’s last one-eighth clocking was a stunning 11 seconds.

As this is Moira’s third start off the layoff, often a peak race for a horse returning from a vacation, she figures to be razor sharp, especially since she is back on her home turf.

Your bet365 wager:
$20 to win (2) Moira
$10 Exactor Box 2 and 6 (Cinderella’s Dream)