The trail to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) heats up on February 17 with an unusually deep edition of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Almost half of the field of 12 colts have posted Beyer Speed Figures in the 90s and many of the top trainers of Derby hopefuls are represented. The 1 1/8 mile race is a nice prize in its own right and a stepping-stone for the Louisiana Derby (G2), worth $1 million, and of course, the biggest Derby of them all on the first Saturday in May.
The Risen Star is race 14 on a lengthy Fair Grounds card with a post time of 7:17 p.m. Eastern.
The keys to handicapping this year’s Risen Star Stakes include historical trends, running style and race-shape projection. The weather could add to the chaos of this excellent race as, at the time of this writing, there is a 90 percent chance of rain for Risen Star day in New Orleans.
What History Tells Us
The first thing you notice when looking at past Risen Star Stakes is that trainer Brad Cox has won three of the last editions, one of them which was split into two divisions. One of those winners, Mandaloun, came back to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby (through disqualification). In 2023, Cox sent out 13-to-1 shot Angel of Empire with Luis Saez to win the Risen Star Stakes for the Albaugh Family Stables. The same trainer, rider and owner combine this year with #8 CATCHING FREEDOM. Both Angel of Empire and Catching Freedom prepped for the Risen Star in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn.
Catching Freedom, who won the 1 1/16 mile Smarty Jones with an 87 Beyer Figure, has not missed a beat in training, with four recent workouts at Fair Grounds.
Leading trainers Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher have each won three editions of the Risen Star and they are premier conditioners of developing three-year-olds. Asmussen trained 2022 Risen Star winner Epicenter, 2016 hero Gun Runner, and Pyro, who won in 2008. He has two colts in this year’s field and both are exciting runners. Morning line favourite #11 TRACK PHANTOM has won three straight races and two stakes at Fair Grounds while #7 HALL OF FAME, a $1.4 million yearling purchase, just won his maiden at Fair Grounds by more than 10 lengths with a 94 Beyer Figure. Hall of Fame, incidentally, is a son of Risen Star winner Gun Runner.
Speaking of Gun Runner, who loved the Fair Grounds track, he is also the sire of #4 SIERRA LEONE, a $2.3 million yearling purchase trained by Chad Brown. Sierra Leone, second by just a nose in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct in his second career race (over a muddy track), adds blinkers for the Risen Star. Trainer Brad Cox made the same equipment change for his Risen Star winner Mandaloun.
Historically, the Risen Star winner has had a recent race (within the last 30 days), in particular in the last four years since the race was extended from1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.
Projected Race Shape
The Fair Grounds main track has one of the longest stretch runs in North America and thus it is a track that tends to play fairly for speed and off-the-pace types. When it comes to its three-year-old Derby preps (Lecomte, Risen Star and Louisiana), however, speed and stalking types have had more success in recent years. That can sometimes to be attributed to race instructions and jockey tactics. With the end goal being the Derby, many times you will see prospects rated off the pace, in particular those returning from a winter vacation. If trainers and riders are trying to get a horse to be successful at longer distances, it might lead to a slow pace up front and and a front-running winner.
This year’s Risen Star field is heavy with off-the-pace runners with the speed types (Hall of Fame, Cardinale, Track Phantom and Dee Dancer) in the outside posts. One successful rule of thumb when playing layoff horses (more than 30 days) is that those with natural speed are better plays than deep closers, as stretch runners tend to take a bit more training to get in top form. I am looking for a stalking type to play.
What if the Track is Muddy/Sloppy?
There will be good value on virtually any horse you choose to play in the Risen Star if the field remains big. The prospect of a muddy or sloppy track adds to the puzzle, but take note of the pedigree lines that lend themselves to off-track acuity. A.P. Indy is a strong source of mud-lovers as in Smart Strike (through Mr. Prospector), Candy Ride (Arg) and Scat Daddy. #3 HONOR MARIE is by Honor Code, a son of A.P. Indy and from a Smart Strike mare and the colt has already run well over a wet track. Gun Runner is a young sire but is already a noted mud sire.
In addition to pedigree, a strong speed horse should always be considered in the mud as he is likely the only runner not getting mud in his face.
Betting the Risen Star Stakes
Three horses that I will play in exactas and other wagers are HONOR MARIE, HALL OF FAME and CATCHING FREEDOM. With this trio I have horses with recency, tactical speed and off-track breeding. Honor Marie is coming off a short layoff, but he has had any number of workouts since December and has not left the racetrack.
$10 win #3 HONOR MARIE
$2 Exacta Box 3-7-8
