Questions from a racing fan identified as “Deep Thoughts” is great timing to point out how a winning $50 first-time starter last Thursday at Woodbine might have been nailed.
Q: Are there tips for betting a maiden 2-year-old race when few or none have had a previous race?
A: Look at three things:
(1) How good is the trainer with firsters? That info is provided under the past performances of each horse in the program.
(2) How good is the horse’s sire in producing first-out winners? “Debut sire” stats are available from DRF but it’s going to cost you a moderate monthly fee. But this info can be deadly. Look at race 4 Thursday at Woodbine. First-time starter #10 Quiet Intent won the race at odds of 24-1. But the debut stats show his sire, Frac Daddy, is hot. The new sire is two-for-five producing first-out winners this year. Now he’s three-for-six. That’s huge. Sometimes DRF trackman Ron Gierkink will reveal a first-time starter’s stats in his Pro Picks write-ups in the DRF. He didn’t do so last Thursday.
(3) Look for 5-furlong workouts, the faster the better. The Frac Daddy colt mentioned above, Quiet Intent, had three quick 5-furlong works. Regularly-spaced workouts is something to look for as well.
Q: Is the non-winners-of-3-races bet similar to the non-winners of 2? Or is it even more chaotic?
A: Only nw2L is chaotic. Once horses have won two races they are considered reasonably competitive at higher levels. Horses stuck at the non-winners of two level — usually because they won an easy maiden race — can remain there for the rest of their careers.
Q: How much weight do you assign the comments at the end of past performance lines? I have found them helpful in races where nothing looks promising but a horse was previously ‘game’ or ‘willing.’
A: Good for you. “Game” and “willing” ARE important elements in the trouble lines. But also look for horses that got a slow start or hit the gate or were blocked during a race or went seven wide in the turn for home — that kind of thing. That’s where watching replays can be very helpful.
Q: Do you ever take breeding into account? I have a few sires I love, like Reload and Old Forester.
A: Breeding is highly important for first-time starters (see first question above). Once a horse has had a few races, though, his or her breeding becomes less relevant. Your Old Forester had very good 2021 debut stats of 16 per cent winners (25-4-2-1) and his winning offspring produced juicy prices ranging from $12 to $40. No wonder you like him. By contrast, Reload produced seven per cent first-out winners (30-2-2-4) and they paid under $10.
Do you have questions for Bettor’s Edge? Email them to editor@horse-canada.com
Making the Most of Queen’s Plate Sunday
I’m sure I don’t have to tell you that the Queen’s Plate card next Sunday will be exciting, not only for the quality of the races, but because betting pools will be huge, fattened by occasional players who aren’t as well-versed as you are in picking winners. And 20 cents can take down a fortune, as a Manitoba player did a number of years ago when he spent about $20 in 20-cent tickets to nail an entire $54,000 superfecta pool. Hey, greed is good — or so we are told in a famous line from a movie script.
