Bettor’s Edge #29: It's Almost Like Stealing!

This is so simple it almost feels like stealing. In a turf route race you quickly scan your Equibase program to see which horses have been racing for the highest purses in stakes races and bet a $5 exactor box on the top two. As a result, you pocket just over $200. Each $1 bet nets you $40.45.

How easy was that? That’s what the payoff was for race 7 at Woodbine on Sunday and, lucky you, that will be the easy way for you to find the contenders in Breeders’ Cup turf races this coming Friday and Saturday. In the Woodbine example, an optional claimer at 1 1/16-mile on the turf, #2 Lac Macza and #12 Dancin in Da’nile had raced for a $400K purse in their last race, which happened to be the Breeders’ Stakes. A couple other horses, #4 and #5, had raced in stakes races too, but the purses were $100K. None of the other horses had been racing in stakes races. See the program page here.

So in mere seconds on Sunday, you were collecting whatever you decided to bet on the top two purse-value horses. When you think about it, this is a very logical way to come up with the best horses because the best horses race for the highest purses. Duh! And that’s especially true for European horses coming to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. You don’t have to know anything about the particular stakes they had been racing in in Europe; the purse value tells you the class level.

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And the reason I’m making such a big deal about this is that this “rule” — looking for highest purse values in turf races — has worked year after year in the BC races and the rule was developed because of the BC experience. Years ago, when a longshot was missed in a high-paying pick-6, this was the very way that horse could have been added to the ticket.

And it couldn’t be easier, could it? I’ve already written that you handicap turf route races by calculating how quickly horses come home from the 6-furlong point in the race. But purse values trump fraction-calculation — when some or all horses have been racing in stakes races. And it’s a good thing to have this rule for BC races because past performance listings in European races do not include internal fractions that allow for fraction calculation.

So, you may ask, what horses therefore are the main contenders in the BC turf races? You’ll have to wait until Friday’s Bettor’s Edge where I’ll provide a rule-based analysis of all nine of Saturday’s BC races. But you already know what I’ll be looking for when it comes to turf races. Layered on that will be comments from DRF clocker Mike Welsch—which you can watch daily on the internet at Breeders’ Cup Clocker Reports.

Another Big Pool Gets Taken Down at Woodbine

Halloween Eve was extra-special yesterday for the Elite Turf Club bettor in the U.S. who took down the entire $80,914 (USD) Power Pick-6 pool by spending a mere 80 cents on a 20-cent wheel with four keys. The ticket was 7/3/7, 12/7/2, 4/2. The remarkable thing is that the bettor took only two horses in the fifth leg which was the often-chaotic non-winners of two races lifetime condition (nw2L) that was won by the longest shot in the field. The winning horses in the sequence in the last six races paid $4.80, $14.60, $13.60, $9.30, $26.10 and $4.70.

Today is Melbourne Cup Day …

Well, amid the ghosts and goblins tonight, we’ll be watching the biggest day in Australian racing which is actually Tuesday afternoon Down Under. You can watch the 24-horse Melbourne Cup from Flemington at midnight eastern time. Races begin at 7:45 p.m. and you could win a fortune betting a mere 20-cent superfecta. The ‘Cup holds a special place in my heart because a mare I hold in awe, Makybe Diva, overcame huge fields of horses to win the Melbourne Cup three years in a row — from 2003 to 2005. An incredible feat.

… and Tomorrow is the 84th Anniversary of a Famous Race

It will be exactly 84 years ago tomorrow that War Admiral and Seabiscuit engaged in their famous match race that was won by the people’s choice, Seabiscuit. Experience that moment in black-and-white video on YouTube. I’ll see you back here Friday to predict the winners of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races based on — you know it — my “rules.”