Oddly, perhaps, just two simple rules have emerged through the years for decomplicating Breeders’ Cup races to increase the likelihood of sharing in those giant betting pools. The two rules:
1. In turf races, look for horses that have been racing recently for the biggest purses.
2. In all races, look for horses that have finished in the money the most times. If it’s a turf race, look at in-the-money stats for turf races.
Because of the high quality of the horses, those two rules are more apt to produce winners and/or contenders than for lesser races.
Another aspect is watching Breeders’ Cup Clocker Reports with Mike Welsch although his editorial comments this year have been minimal. The only thing that really stood out for me is that he would have bet a few bucks on Blue Stripe (20-1) in the highly competitive Distaff for fillies and mares.
For betting starters, let’s look at the pick-6 on races 6 to 11 because it’s the most challenging and could be the most lucrative. (As a bit of background, let me remind you the pick-6 in the 2020 Keeneland Breeders’ Cup paid $33,000 for five of six. In other words, no one had six of six. And, take note, two of those five winners were favourites and one horse was 4-1. So, basically, all one needed was two longshots to make a nice score.)
Here’s my suggested ticket:
Race 6 Filly and Mare Turf: #3 4 5 8 9 11 12
Race 7 Sprint: #9
Race 8 Mile: #4
Race 9 Distaff: #1 2 4 6 7 8
Race 10 Turf: #2 3 4 5 7 11
Race 11 Classic: #4
Download program here.
Cost of the minimum $2 wheel (in Canada) 7 x 1 x 1 x 6 x 6 x 1 = $252 x $2 = $504. You may cut the cost down to $96 by taking just 3 & 4 in race 6 and 4,5,7,11 in race 10 And, of course, you may carve up those races to form doubles, pick-3s, pick-4 and pick-5.
Notes On Keys
- The weakest link is probably #9, Jackie’s Warrior, in race 7. He should have won the last two Breeders’ Cups as the favourite. He’s touted as being at the top of his form. Is the third time the charm?
- The key in race 8, #4 Modern Games, fits the rule of having raced for the highest purse ($1,293,000) and note he finished second to the best horse in Europe, Baaeed, and won the Woodbine Mile impressively.
- The key in race 11, #4 Flightline has been called “a machine” who is not subject to normal horse inconsistencies.
Now let’s look, blow by blow, at each of the nine races—with suggested bets here and there:
RACE 3 Filly and Mare Sprint: 7-furlong rule comes into play. What horses have the highest speed figures at 7-furlongs? #4, 5, 8. Their speed numbers are 117, 118, 117. Suggested play: $1 (or as little as 20-cents) superfecta wheel: 4,5,8 with 4,5,8 with 7 with ALL. And wheel 7 in fourth as well. #7 has the next-best 7f speed number of 109. This is the first leg of the 60-cent pick-5 as well.
RACE 4 Turf Sprint at 5 ½-furlongs: This is always a tricky distance where anything can happen. Looking for highest purses and best in-the-money finishes, these horses resonate: 1,2,6,7,8,11,14. #8 Golden Pal is seven-for-seven at the distance and four-for-four at Keeneland so is the obvious favourite. #14 Artemus Citylimits is an interesting 30-1 horse who has finished in the money in 21 of 22 starts.
RACE 5 Dirt Mile: The best in-the-money finishers are #7 Cody’s Wish (10 for 10), #5 Gunite (11 for 12), #9 Cyberknife (9 for 11), #1 Slow Down Andy (8 for 9) and Laurel River (5 for 7). Note that #1 is 30-1. How about a 60-cent Super Hi-5 wheel with all those five horses in all five positions with #10 Senor Buscador, a 12-1 closer, added to the firth position. Would pay huge.
RACE 6 Filly and Mare Turf: See all the selections suggested for the pick-6 ticket above. Suggested superfecta wheel: 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 8 with 3,4,5,9,11,12 and wheel 8 on the bottom, too.
RACE 7 Sprint: If you need to look beyond #9 Jackie’s Warrior (15 of 17 in the money) look to #2 Kimari (13 of 16), #5 Aloha West (9 of 12) or #6 Elite Power (5 of 7). Note #11 at 30-1 Flash of Mischief has the highest Equibase speed in the race (117). A 20-cent superfecta box of those five horses costs $24.
RACE 8 Mile: #4 Modern Games is one of the best on the day as noted above. Top trainer Chad Brown has an interesting 2022 debut horse, #14 Domestic Spending, who’s been training lights out. Also, #5 Smooth Like Straight has finished in the money on the turf 17 of 18 times.
RACE 9 Distaff: Anything might happen it seems. Note three horses have perfect in-the-money records: #1 Malathaat, #6 Nest and #7 Search Results. Put those three on top of #2 Blue Stripe at 20-1 or even box them because clocker Mike Welsch is high on her workouts.
RACE 10 Turf: Note at the top how deep the pick-6 ticket went. The three horses who have been racing for the highest purses are all longshots: #3 Stone Age (15-1), #4 Broome (12-1) and #11 Mishriff (6-1). This race could pay big for spending little.
RACE 11: Classic. This race is the same distance as the Queen’s Plate so it calls for the same analysis: computing fastest fractions in 1 1/8-mile races. The two best are #1 Taiba and #6 Epicenter. Add those to the two obvious horses that have been winning almost everything, Flightline and Life Is Good, and the superfecta box is 1-2-4-6. Here’s my suggestion for the Super Hi 5 wheel: 4 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6,7 with ALL.
Whew! Lots of intense analysis there. I hope it helps and maybe fills in some gaps for you. Here’s another suggestion: Start a show parlay. Maybe with $10 or $20. Decide what five races or so that will be part of your parlay and continue allowing all your money to ride. No chickening out if the amount balloons sizably!
May the horse be with you.