Bettor’s Edge #87: 'Show Horse' Exceeds Expectations

So my “take a shot” longshots touted in last week’s column for a pick-5 costing just $3.60 didn’t come through. But how about Chromeplated Heart, that mare in race 8 that I suggested betting big to show? Not only did she pay $8.20 to show, she WON, paying $45.80 to win and $18.70 to place. You’re welcome!

The rule there, of course, was looking at the mare’s in-the-money finishes. She had finished third 11 times in 23 starts (48 per cent thirds) and finished in the money 18 times out of those 23 starts (a whopping 78 per cent). C’mon, how can you not get excited about a horse like that going off at 21-1? My conservative betting group at Assiniboia Downs bet $60 to show on her, earning $240 but, of course, lamented not playing $20 across the board instead.

There’s no similar longshot possibility in tomorrow’s Woodbine card but the 11-for-12 #9 Paramount Prince is sure to be the centre of attention in the Niagara Overnight Stakes — IF HE RUNS. Trainer Mark Casse has indicated the winner of the King’s Plate won’t run unless the race is taken off the turf. And no wonder. In his only turf race, the Breeders’ Stakes last fall, he went from first to nearly last (13th in a 14-horse field).

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So this column is Part A and Part B. In Part A, where the race is transferred to the synthetic main track, the Prince is probably a shoo-in after the jog-in-the-park manner in which he won his last race. In Part B: No Prince, but now the doubt transfers to the horse who finished second to Prince in his last two starts. That’s #6 Stanley House who has NEVER tried the turf. His turf Tomlinson figure is okay — 312 — which is only a couple of dozen points lower than his synthetic figure. He’s finished in the money nine times in 13 races, so you know he’s likely to be a strong factor if he takes to the turf.

Let’s add him to horses who have proven themselves on the turf — and they’re mainly longshots so you can cash big in your triactors or superfectas if you’re correct. The best appear to be #3 English Conqueror (12-1) who has the highest turf-breeding Tomlinson figure (374) and has a turf record of 9 in-the-money finishes in 15 turf starts, #7 Dancin in Da’nile (15-1) who has the quickest closing fraction on the turf than any horse in the field and #1 Stone Age (4-1) who has finished first and second in his two Woodbine turf races and loves the 1 ¼-mile distance (5 for 7).

So the box is 1,3,6,7. If I were going deeper, I would look at #4, 11 and 12. Should be a very interesting race, whether it’s on the turf or synthetic.

And on the undercard, here are a few spot plays that hold out some value:

Race 2, maiden claiming race at 7-furlongs: Highest 7-furlong speed figure is #5 with 74, followed by #3 with 71 and #4 with 70. For a superfecta box or even exactor play, first-time-starter #2 Blue Spirit (8-1) is worth considering because her trainer, Sandy McPherson, enters debuting horses where they belong.
Race 3, $7,000 claimers: Three horses have been racing in tougher SOC (starter optional claimer) races: #2,4,8 — and #2 and #4 are likely to be longshots. How about a superfecta box, adding the two favourites, #3 and #5?
Race 4, two-year-old maidens on the turf: Extreme longshot possibility is #8 Mohaymen Diamond (20-1) who has a turf Tomlinson figure of 398. The next-best are #3 (371) and #1 (357).
Race 7, optional claimer for non-winners of two lifetime: In this often-chaotic race condition, note #4 (6-1) has four of five in-the-money finishes and #6 (3-1) is 7 for 12 in the money. How about wheeling them second and third in 20-cent triactors and/or superfectas?

~ by Ivan Bigg