The key to having made money from last week’s column was to base bets on the two races I told you were my “most confident” plays. Using those races and playing “all” horses in the other legs of the pick-5 would have cost several hundred dollars, but the pick-5 did pay $2,924. More likely you could have spent $32 betting a $1 pick-3, taking “all” horses in the middle leg of the two “most confident” races (4 x 8 x 1). That paid a handsome $187.
The trickiness of Woodbine races continues into tomorrow’s 10-race card, but I’m going to suggest a key in the early pick-5 that won’t be favoured and also think a 20-1 horse has a shot. Here goes:
- Race 2, maiden optional claimer: The class drop and bullet workout on #3 Spellcheck (2-1) makes that three-year-old filly an obvious contender. And won’t #1 Linda’s Opal (6-1) come flying down the stretch as the only real closer in the race? Add #4,5,7 to the bottom two positions in your superfectas.
- Race 3, maiden optional claimer: #8 Fanny M (3-1) is dropping in claiming value and her jockey seems to have chosen to ride her instead of another filly (#11) he had also been riding. You may or may not add #11 to your ticket because she DOES have a low added-up number of 5. Also have a care for #6 Ami’s Cry (10-1) because she raced “evenly” in first lifetime start. “Evenly” means, to me, the horse wasn’t all-out. And #7 Super Serenade (4-1) is also a strong contender based on her trainer Kevin Attard’s 19 per cent wins with first-timers.
- Race 4, non-winners two lifetime optional claimer: This is your often-chaotic nw2L condition, but a horse who can get the lead has an edge so I’m keying #7 Joya de Oro because she has a 115 Equibase speed figure — well ahead of others — and is returning from a layoff in which she has uninterrupted weekly workouts. In other words, she is a fresh filly with speed. Watch out! Consider wheeling her first and second in a triactor with #3 third because #3 finishes third in about one-third of her races. 7-ALL-3. And ALL-7-3.
- Race 5, turf sprint optional claimer: Two horses appear to have a class edge: #4 Perhaps Tonight (5-2) who raced previously in a “starter” handicap and #6 Cara Cara (3-1) who raced in a stakes race. Note that Perhaps Tonight finished second in a KEY race in which three horses came back to win. That’s huge.
- Race 6, allowance optional claimer: #4 Greavette (20-1) could anchor a high-paying pick-5 if she can carry her obvious early speed to the wire. If not, #1,5.6.8 are the logical horses based on their superior speed figures.
Your budget 20-cent pick-5 wheel then is 1,3/6,7,8/7/4,6/1,4,5,6,8 (2 x 3 x 1 x 2 x 5 = 60 divided by 5 = $12). And don’t forget the recommended superfecta in race 2 and triactor in race 4 – along with pick-3s or even doubles if that’s your thing. Sharpen your wits for the Breeders’ Cup only three weeks away!
~ by Ivan Bigg
