If you are player of favourites in major stakes races, then you have been doing well in recent stepping-stone races for the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Some of the accomplished two-year-olds from 2023 have transitioned well to their three-year-old year and there are two more in action in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Locked is making his 2024 debut in Saturday’s 1 1/16 mile race for high-profile trainer Todd Pletcher after winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita last fall. And Dornoch, who just happens to be a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, is making his first start since winning the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct last December over Sierra Leone, who happened to win his three-year-old opener recently in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.
The keys to picking the winner of the Fountain of Youth include trainer angle, race shape and pedigree.
Pletcher’s Pair
Pletcher began the Derby trail with his Champion two-year-old colt and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner of 2023, Fierceness, who came up flat in his season debut, the Holy Bull Stakes in early February. That colt is being pointed to the March 30 Florida Derby (G1). Pletcher will unveil
Locked, a son of Gun Runner, in the Fountain of Youth, but there was a slight bump on the way. Locked came up with a fever in late January and missed a workout, but he had two preps in February and one of those, a half-mile workout with the accomplished older stakes horse Expressman, was extremely impressive. Jockey Jose Ortiz was aboard the colt, who galloped out strongly and away from his mate in a time of 49.60 (you can view a lot of workouts of horses in Florida and California on www.xbtv.com with a free account).
Meanwhile, Pletcher and the owners of Speak Easy, a son of Constitution, elected to send the colt to the Fountain of Youth instead of an allowance race on Friday, March 1. Speak Easy set social media alight when he won his career debut with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, winning the seven furlong race by 1 3/4 lengths over another beginner, Victory Avenue, who is also in the Fountain of Youth.
Speak Easy, who has Pletcher’s main rider Irad Ortiz Jr. on board, went fast on the pace in that win and is sure to be close to the pace from his rail post on Saturday.
Dornoch’s trainer, Danny Gargan, who has a 12 per cent rate (about average) with winning with horses coming off 61-180 day layoffs (DRF statistics) has put his Good Magic colt through five workouts since late January. The colt has tactical speed and plenty of stamina, but certainly the Fountain of Youth is not the end game.
Who Sits the Best Trip?
With (#1) Speak Easy and (#3) Victory Avenue (who battled on the lead with the latter in the maiden race) in the contest, two solid pace runners bound to set honest fractions, stalkers should have good trips in the Fountain of Youth. That includes (#5) Dornoch and (#8) Locked as well as Swale Stakes winner (#7) Frankie’s Empire. Frankie’s Empire, however, has done better in one-turn sprint races than his route races. He is interesting for exactas at 20-to-1. (#4) Real Macho, a recent winner in a one-turn, one mile allowance race, is a fast-improving colt for trainer Rohan Crichton. And should the pace be very quick, you have to give a look to stretch runner (#9) Dancing Groom for inclusion at the bottom of trifectas or superfectas.
Is Real Macho the Real Deal?
So, while there are some questions with the big name horses in the Fountain of Youth field with regards to readiness, experience and race set-up, Real Macho looks like a good horse to bet. The son of Mucho Macho Man is 8-to-1 in the morning line odds and coming off a 26-to-1 upset victory over highly-regarded Born Noble. Real Macho was making his first start without his blinkers that day and it was an impressive stretch run. Red-hot rider Tyler Gafflione is back to ride the colt, who starts from post 4.
Here are the plays for the Fountain of Youth, which is race 14 at Gulfstream on March 2 with a 6:10 p.m. Eastern post time:
$10 win #4 Real Macho
$2 Exacta 4,8 with 4, 7, 8
Good luck with your bet365 wagers!
