Handicapping Presented by bet365: The Woodbine Oaks

It’s Canada’s most prestigious race for three-year-old fillies born in this country and for the second consecutive year, the maximum number of horses has been entered, leaving bettors with a mouth-watering handicapping puzzle.

There are 14 fillies entered (one gal is on the also eligible list) that will travel 1 1/8 miles for the bulk of the $500,000 purse with perhaps a chance to even try the King’s Plate in August. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though, since this is a lean year for talented three-year-olds, at least at this point in the racing year. Just five of the entrants have won a stakes race and only four entrants have won more than one race.

Picking the most likely winner of this year’s Oaks may simply come down to the most basic handicapping approaches: class, speed, form and value. I will start with a look at the past 20 runnings of the Oaks since there are certain historical aspects of any big race that should be respected.

Scroll to continue with content

Historical: Current form

Historically, a good last race is a must for an Oaks contender. It could be a victory or it could be a top-three placing or at the very least a loss by no more than a couple of lengths. More than half of the past 20 Oaks winners won their last race coming into the first jewel of the Triple Tiara and overall, 19 of 20 finished in the top three in their pre-Oaks.

This approach will not eliminate too many horses from the field and there is always a chance that there was a valid excuse for a modest recent effort, but it’s a useful start to separating pretenders from contenders.

Inudation, Bravo Kate, A Little Frisky and Shamans Girl will be dropped from win consideration.

Historical: Distance win, Beyer Figure Par Before Oaks Race

It is a good idea to lean towards a starter who has won at a route distance since the Oaks is at 1 1/8 miles. You will find the majority of starters have won at a route distance and that includes two turns around the inner grass course, even though the tight corners of that quick surface are much different than a route race on Tapeta.

One horse in this year’s Oaks field who has been set with low odds in the morning line, Kin’s Concerto, was second by a head in her lone distance attempt. Interestingly, this filly earned her maiden win by being placed first, so she actually has not crossed the finish line in front yet.

The Beyer Figure par of the last 20 Oaks winners in their last race BEFORE the Oaks is 82, with the average winning Beyer Figure par (supplied by Daily Racing Form) for the Oaks above 85.

This year’s field is a bit unusual in that only three starters have posted a Beyer in the 80s in their career. Inudation, American shipper Ba Dee Yah and War Painter qualify, although Caitlinhergrtness earned a 79 in her latest race on turf.

Class

Occasionally the class aspect of handicapping gets overlooked while speed figures and the most recent race get all the focus. But horses who keep good company are often the most dangerous in stakes events.

Ba Dee Yah, trained by Tom Amoss, has kept the best company of any filly in the Oaks field. In January, the daughter of Uncle Mo finished third to Tarifa at Fair Grounds. That filly won two graded stakes races in her next two starts. In March, Ba Dee Yah was sixth in the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park to Thorpedo Anna, who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by almost five lengths.
Ba Dee Yah has also won a stakes race south of the border

Odds, ends

Trainer Kevin Attard has won two of the last three Oaks and has entered five fillies in this year’s field. Mark Casse, who has four Oaks wins, one from the record, has just a single entrant in Lunch With Bernie, who has not run to expectations this year.

Shamans Girl will race with the anti-bleeding medication Lasix for the first time while Ba Dee Yah gets Lasix for the first time since her big win in the LaCombe Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds in March.

Predicting what the public may do when it comes to betting on this year’s Oaks is no easy task, but with recent grass winner Caitlynhergrtness quoted as the 3-to-1 favourite while coming back in just two weeks from a grass win, there is value elsewhere.

Ba Dee Yah, while never having raced over an all-weather surface, is a large 8-to-1 on the morning line. If you delve into her breeding you will find that her sire, Uncle Mo, is one of the continent’s leading sires of all-weather track winners and her siblings Gretzky the Great and Robitaille have both won on Tapeta. Another runner who meets a lot of the contender criteria, Hurricane Clair is a super 12-to-1 in the early odds.

Putting it all together

(#9) BA DEE YAH is too hard to resist based on her race record in the U.S., her pedigree, plus the addition of Lasix (two wins from three races with Lasix). I don’t think she will be 8-to-1 at post time, likely less than half that quote, but she has to be considered one of the top contenders. I have also included (#11) WAR PAINTER as a potential winner in exactor wagers.

The bet: $10 to win Ba Dee Yah (9)
The bet: $2 Exactor 9, 11 / 5, 8, 9, 10, 11 = $16.00

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!

WOODBINE OAKS FIELD – RACE 9 July 20
Post – Horse – Jockey – Trainer

1. Inudation – Leo Salles – Kevin Attard 10-1
2. Holiday in Jail – Ryan Munger – Robert Tiller 30-1
3. Lookin to Conquer – Jose Campos – Martin Hinckson 20-1
4. Kin’s Concerto – Sofia Vives – Josie Carroll 4-1
5. Hurricane Clair – Sahin Civaci – Martin Drexler 12-1
6. Vucchella – Pietro Moran – Kevin Attard 20-1
7. Bravo Kate – David Moran – Sid Attard 20-1
8. My Girl Della – Patrick Husbands – Kevin Attard 12-1
9. Ba Dee Yah – Luis Contreras – Tom Amoss 8-1
10. Caitlinhergrtness – Rafael Hernandez – Kevin Attard 3-1
11. War Painter – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Kevin Attard 6-1
12. A Little Frisky – Jutin Stein – Josie Carroll 10-1
13. Lunch With Bernie – Edgard Zayas – Mark Casse 12-1
14. Shamans Girl – Eswan Flores – Harold Ladouceur 30-1

Also Eligible:
15. Beautiful Sky (S) – Fraser Aebly – Michael De Paulo 20-1