Handicapping Presented by bet365: The Natalma Stakes

Turf Champions Day, September 14 at Woodbine, kicks off with the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes, race five, and the one-mile turf event for two-year-old fillies is a Win and You’re In event for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November.

A field of 13 has been assembled, but it should be noted that eight of the entrants are trained by Mark Casse and seven of them have been cross-entered in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes (race nine). We won’t know which fillies are competing in which races until scratch time Saturday morning. From there, follow where Casse has placed his horses and jockeys to get added clues.

The forecast is for hot and sunny weather, so the E.P. Taylor course will be firm.

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Historical notes

Mark Casse has won more Natalma Stakes (named for the dam of the great Northern Dancer) than any other trainer. His seven wins in the race came between 2006 and 2016 and Catch a Glimpse, the 2015 winner, parlayed that victory into a Breeders’ Cup win.

Shippers to Woodbine have had more luck than the locals in recent years and five of the last 10 editions (50 percent) have been won by invaders. The lucrative $500,000 purse, the automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup and Woodbine’s pristine turf course are all enticing factors for trainers to send their fillies north.

Godolphin and its trainer Charlie Appleby, who is based in England, have won two editions of the Natalma. Incredibly, Appleby has started horses in 10 Grade 1s at Woodbine and won eight of them. His entrant in this year’s Natalma is (#13) MOUNTAIN BREEZE who finished second in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket in her most recent start. Appleby’s 2021 Natalma winner Wild Beauty also finished second in the Sweet Solera before coming over to Canada.

Running Style and Current Form

The Natalma is a one-turn mile race and on the big days of racing at Woodbine, the railings are not up and races are run on the turf from Lane 1. That presents horses with plenty of room to win with any style of running, although stalkers and closers tend to have the best luck in this race. That is because the field is usually large, most of the field have only a had a couple of starts, and early pace tends to be quick.

The last two Natalma winners, She Feels Pretty and Last Call, both rallied from off the pace at 8-to-1 and 21-to-1, respectively.

Since the Natalma is for two-year-olds, the winners might be making only their second career start, which is rare, or their fifth or sixth career race. The European invaders, such as 2021 winner Wild Beauty, had five previous races before her big Woodbine win.

Every one of the last 10 winners were coming off a good performance, or at least a top-three finish.

Pedigree Plays

It is rare that a Grade 1 turf race would have many entrants that have not raced on the grass, but this year’s Natalma field has five fillies making their turf debuts. It is a good idea to take a look at the pedigrees of these gals as we continue to handicap the race. This can be done by reviewing the Turf Tomlinson number on the Daily Racing Form past performances where the horse’s overall record is located or taking to Equibase.com and checking the race record of the sire and dam.

Here is some insight to the first-time turfers:

(2) ITALIAN SOIREE is by a very good grass sire in Uncle Mo and her dam has been bred to that sire three times and all three tried grass, one won. (4) WINTERBERRY is by an average grass sire, Frosted, and her dam tried turf once and was unplaced. (7) AND ONE MORE TIME is from a mare who was placed four times on the grass and is the dam of graded stakes winning turfer Simply in Front and a couple of other good grass winners. (10) ARCTIC VELOCITY has limited, immediate grass breeding and (12) THREAD is a full sister to graded stakes winning turf horse Bob and Jackie.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Annascaul – Shipper had big speed to win her career debut at Saratoga for trainer Christophe Clement who is three-for-four at Woodbine this year with his invaders. She is bred to handle the one mile distance.

2. Italian Soiree – Another shipper from New York won her debut on the dirt and was second in the Grade 3 Adirondack, a dirt sprint.

3. Nitrogren – She was heavily favoured in a maiden race at one mile on the inner turf and Woodbine and finished second by a neck in slow time. Cross-entered in Summer.

4. Winterberry – Front running winner of her debut on Tapeta in fast time. Turf debut. Cross-entered.

5. Ready to Battle – Unplaced in her lone turf outing at Saratoga, won Tapeta maiden race at Woodbine holding off Thread. Cross-entered.

6. Will Reign – Maiden will wear blinkers and she was just a neck out of third place in the Catch a Glimpse Stakes on Aug. 23. Cross-entered.

7. And One More Time – Comes off a maiden win at Saratoga in the mud and is well bred for for the grass.

8. Ready for Candy – Maiden was second in the Catch a Glimpse Stakes at Woodbine with a steady rally.

9. Latin Fever (Ire) – Was 80-to-1 when she won her career debut at Leopardstown in Ireland on good-to-soft grass. Cross-entered.

10. Arctic Velocity – Broke slowly in her career debut on Tapeta and does not have much grass breeding.

11. Vixen – Won a one mile turf race at Ellis Park in Kentucky, pulling away in impressive fashion. Jockey John Velazquez won this race last year.

12. Thread – Easy winner of her maiden race eight days ago against three rivals in a rainstorm. Has some turf breeding.

13. Mountain Breeze – European filly for dangerous Appleby stable has won two races and second in recent Group 3. She has been training in New York since late August. Oh, she is also a half-sister to the brilliant colt Pinatubo, a multiple Group 1 winner as a two- and three-year-old in 2019 and 2020.

Putting it all together

Without knowing which fillies trainer Mark Casse will start in the Natalma, it is till tough to go against Mountain Breeze who has plenty of experience, a graded stakes race performance and a trainer who has won virtually every start at Woodbine.

Your Bet365 Wagers:
$20 to win 13
$2 Exactor: 13 / 1, 4, 7 = $6.00
Longshot Play: 7

Recent Winners of Natalma Stakes

Yr Horse/Jockey/Trainer/Time/Notes
2023 She Feels Pretty, John Velazquez,Cherie DeVaux 1:35.34 Shipper, 2nd start, rally
2022 Last Call, Rafael Hernandez, Kevin Attard 1:36.49 Local filly, rally
2021 Wild Beauty (GB), Frankie Dettori, Charlie Appleby 1:35.08 English invader, 6th start, stalk
2020 Lady Speightspeare, Emma-Jayne Wilson, Roger Attfield 1:34.61 Local, speed
2019 Abscond, Irad Ortiz Jr., Eddie Kenneally 1:36.51 shipper, stalk
2018 La Pelosa, Jamie Spencer, Charlie Appleby 1:33.70 English invader, rally
2017 Capla Temptress, Joel Rosario, Marco Botti 1:35.12 shipper, 4th start, rally
2016 Victory to Victory, Florent Geroux, Mark E. Casse 1:35.24, local, 3rd start, stalk
2015 Catch a Glimpse, Florent Geroux, Mark E. Casse 1:35.95, local, speed
2014 Conquest Harlanate, Patrick Husbands, Mark E. Casse 1:40.61, local, stalk