If you pick the winner of the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on Saturday, April 6, as they say, “you will get paid.” In other words, the prices will be right on virtually every one of the entrants in New York’s final stepping-stone to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1). Only #4 Deterministic, a lightly raced colt from the barn of Christophe Clement who is undefeated in two starts, is considered a strong favourite in the eyes of the morning line oddsmaker.
How about these prices on recent Wood Memorial winners? Lord Miles in 2023 was 59-to-1 and trained by Saffie Joseph Jr; Bourbonic, the 2021 winner, was 72-to-1, trained by Todd Pletcher; and even 2018 winner Tacitus, trained by Bill Mott, paid nearly $11.00 as one of the favourites in a big field. All three of these trainers have starters in this year’s Wood Memorial field.
The ‘Wood’ used to be a key race to pointing out a strong Kentucky Derby contender, but it has been 23 years since Fusaichi Pegasus parlayed his win at Aqueduct into a win in the Run for the Roses.
The favourite
Deterministic, a son of Liam’s Map, won his career debut last August at Saratoga in a seven furlong sprint, coming from just off the pace in time to win with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure. Put away after that race, he returned on Mar. 2 and won the Gotham Stakes (G3) at a one-turn mile distance in the slop. In that race, the colt and his rider Joel Rosario tracked a solid pace and then pulled clear, putting up a 93 Beyer. The Wood will be the colt’s first attempt at a two-turn distance and as Clement said this week, “you never know how they are going to handle it.”
Historically, front runners have not fared well in the 1 1/8 mile Wood Memorial – the last such winner was Bellamy Road two decades ago. And food for thought: Deterministic’s dam, Giulio’s Jewel, by sprinter Speightstown, won three races at five and six furlongs and was a speedy runner,
The good news for Deterministic is that there are other pace runners in the field and that may help him find a spot to stay covered up so he can keep some power in reserve.
The Pletcher Factor
As with the Florida Derby (G1), won last weekend by Fierceness, the Wood Memorial has been dominated by trainer Todd Pletcher in recent years. Fierceness was Pletcher’s eighth Florida Derby winner. The trainer has won seven of the last 13 Wood Memorials and has two entrants in this year’s field: Protective and Tuscan Sky, each with just two career starts. Protective is a maiden who came off a long layoff to be third in a maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs, only to be disqualified and placed fourth. The colt, owned by the red-hot Repole Stable, will wear blinkers this weekend. Tuscan Sky is a promising colt with two wins, one in a sprint in the mud at Aqueduct and last time in the slop at Fair Grounds. His sire, Vino Rosso, won the 2018 Wood.
A pair of 8-to-1 contenders
If #2 EL GRANDE O could time his move into the stretch a bit better, he might be a graded stakes winner by now. This New York colt is a sturdy fellow with 11 races in his career including three this year. His 2024 outings saw him have the lead in mid-stretch in the Jerome, Withers (G3) and Gotham (G3), only to be caught late. Trainer Linda Rice (who won five races at Aqueduct on Thursday afternoon) will change the jockey for her colt in the Wood, moving to Dylan Davis from Kendrick Carmouche. With a record of 3-5-2 from those 11 races, El Grande O is a must-use in exactas and trifectas.
UNCLE HEAVY (#13) did not get lucky at the post position draw but he is a late, closing type who should be able to get to the back of the field and save some ground by the first turn. This Pennsylvania bred could be the first horse veteran trainer Butch Reid has ever taken to the Kentucky Derby. The colt won two of his first three races in his home State and then won the 1 1/8 mile Withers by a nose over El Grande O on Feb. 3.
Reid elected to wait the two months before the Wood and note that the trainer’s record (last two years) when giving his horses a 61-180 day layoff is an impressive 36 percent winners.
Uncle Heavy is the pick from this corner with fingers firmly crossed his rider Mychel Sanchez can work out a good trip from a tough post.
$10 to win #13 Uncle Heavy
$2 Exacta 2, 13/ 2, 4, 9, 13 = $12.00
Good luck on your bet365 wagers!
The Field
Wood Memorial (G3) – $750,000; 1 1/8 miles
Aqueduct Racetrack, Saturday, April 06, 2024, Race 10
