Well, your racing-rule guy is back to comment on bankroll-fattening rules that play out at Woodbine. And this year’s columns will also feature something new — a “rule” pick at Assiniboia Downs which starts tonight and a “rule” pick at Fort Erie where races begin a week from tomorrow.
First off, if you’re a rule skeptic, I’ll remind you of last year’s Breeders’ Cup column when rules picked the early pick-5 that paid $152 for—get this—an outlay of $2.40. Mere pocket change. The 60-cent wheel (1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1) was all rules, no opinions. Who does that in the vaunted Breeders’ Cup? Pocket change? Are you kidding me?
But rules were rules: What horses had raced for the highest purses? What horses had the highest speed figures in a 7-furlong specialist race? What horse had the best in-the-money record in the race for fillies and mares? A $24 bet would have given you $1,520. I rest my case.
Okay, let’s fast forward to the highest payoff at Woodbine this past weekend—a 20-cent superfecta that paid $1,799–and see how you could have won it (or maybe you did!) by doing something simple. It was in race 7 Saturday, a 5-furlong dash for fillies and mares.
Look at the 27-1 third-place finisher. Her record in 5-furlong races showed she LOVED the short distance. She finished in the money four out of five times. And the winner’s record was two-for-two and the second-place finisher was three-for-five. Am I making my “simplicity” point? Here are the four horses from first to fourth with their impressive records at the 5-furlong distance.
1. #6 Lantana Lady (11-1) 2 for 2 at the distance (1-0-1)
2. #8 American Starlet (17-1) 3 for 5 (1-1-1)
3. #1 Sacred Dancer (27-1) 4 for 5 (2-1-1)
4. #9 Dancing Duchess (2-1) 2 for 2 (2-0-0)
Yes, 5-furlong races are often chaotic but examining each horse’s record at the specialist distance goes a long way to pointing out the most logical contenders, doesn’t it? In fact, in-the-money finishes is my favourite initial handicapping attack on stakes races as well and—take note—in races from other countries which have limited information in their past performance lines. Try it.
Here’s a “rule” pick and tips on tonight’s Assiniboia Downs’ opening card
The modest track on the Canadian prairies that punches well above its weight, thanks to attracting lots of new fans when it was the first Canadian track to emerge from the pandemic shutdown, begins its 50-day meet tonight at 7:30 p.m. It features million-dollar race days and pick-4 pools rivalling Woodbine’s. .
What should you watch for? As for any new meet, look for horses that get into a dueling match and tire. They’re almost sure bets next time if there is no speed rival.
Is the track favouring speedsters or closers? You should make note of that EVERY race card you watch. If a speedster is compromised by a closing bias, for example, then the horse has a good chance of winning when the track is favouring speed. This is a favourite angle of speed guru Andy Beyer.
TONIGHT’S RULE HORSE PICK: Tonight’s 5-furlong races obviously favour horses with high pace figures in the Equibase program. Let’s take #7 Chicago’s Gray in race 4 because he shows a 114 pace figure last year, well above any other horse’s pace figures. But remember this is the beginning of the race season and fitness could be an issue. #4 Stay Happy has recency on his side, having raced at Fonner Park last month. It’s certainly not a day to risk a big chunk of your bankroll on ANY horse.
