UPDATED VERSION
Okay, with the washed-out King’s Plate Day behind us, let’s do the necessary tweaking to capture the mandatory pick-6 payoff in the revised sequence of races:
- Race 7, the King Edward Stakes on the turf: In-the-money finishes is a prime betting rule in stakes races. #8 Filo Di Arianna with 12 for 16 in the money and #1 Cruden Bay with 17 of 22 are the best fit to that rule.
- Race 8, the Bold Venture Stakes sprint: #3 Patches O’Houlihan has eight wins from 10 starts, making the four-year-old gelding a key on many tickets. Possible upsetter is 2-for-2 #6 Playmea Tune. DRF trackman Ron Gierkink picks this as his best bet of the day.
- Race 9, the King’s Plate: #7 My Boy Prince has been demolishing fields at prohibitively low odds BUT #3 Essex Serpent, with only three starts, wired the grade 3 Marine Stakes and should be on the lead again because of a 115 Equibase pace figure. The best angle in 1 ¼-mile races, however, is the closing fraction at 1 1/8-mile or a bit shorter. #2 Rafaroo (8-1) with only two lifetime starts had the best closing fraction in the field with 36 4/5 when he finished second to My Boy Prince in the Plate Trial. Will he take another step forward to beat the favourite? That’s my hope. Suggested superfecta wagers: Wheel #7 first and second with the five horses with the best in-the-money finishes–2,3,5,8,12) and take a chance for a larger score by wheeling 2,3,7/2,3,7/5/ALL and 2,3,7/2,3,7/ALL/5.
- Race 10, Catch a Glimpse turf stakes for two-year-olds: #7 Bullet has crushed stakes fields in her two lifetime starts. It doesn’t get better than that. #13 Carlisle Bay (15-1) made a nice middle move in the last stakes race won by Bullet. Can she make the same move but maintain her lead? She has the highest turf Tomlinson in the field at 395.
- Race 11, turf route race: The best closing fractions on the turf are #1 Never Surprised (34 3/5), #9 Classic Mo Town (22 1/5) and #11 Lord of War (22 3/5).
- Race 12, 7-furlong maiden race: A very challenging race with various rules in play: (1) The highest 7f speed figure (#7 has 69 but five horses are close – #1,2,3,5,11), (2) added up numbers because it’s a maiden race (#3 is lowest with six), (3) the highest speed number in the race (#6 with 74) and (4) here’s your longshot for the bottom position of your super hi-5 – #10 (20-1) who is cutting back to a sprint distance after showing good early energy in a route race. She should be closing late.
So your 20-cent wheel to try to share in the mandatory pick-6 pool is 1,8/3,6/2,3,7/7/1,9,11/1,2,3,5,6,7,11. That’s 2 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 3 x 7 = 252 divided by 5 = $50.40. To slash the cost, you may wish to play four horses–#1,3,6,7—in the last leg or key My Boy Prince in the King’s Plate.
Of course, you can consider pick-3s and the pick-4 and pick-5 with these horses as well. And, to share in the mandatory hi-5 payoff in the last race, you can reduce the cost by keying on a fifth-place finisher, #10, which is what I will doing. Horses cutting back to a sprint after showing speed in a route is one of my favourite angles for picking closers.
~ by Ivan Bigg
