Handicapping presented by bet365: The Summer Stakes

The winner of Saturday’s Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine, which has an overflow field of 17, earns a free berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Del Mar in November. The last horse to parlay a Summer Stakes win to a Breeders’ Cup score was Pluck in 2010, although 2016 and 2017 winners Good Samaritan and Untamed Domain ran well in the World Championships.

As mentioned in the handicapping column for the Natalma Stakes (G1) earlier on Turf Champions Day at Woodbine, the two-year-old fillies from the Mark Casse barn have been entered in both two-year-old stakes races.

And Casse has won four editions of the Summer including the 2013 renewal with the filly My Conquestadory. Shippers have won seven of the last 10 Summer Stakes and 14 of the last 20. And Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have won two recent runnings of the race and are well represented in all four Grade 1 stakes races on Saturday.

Scroll to continue with content

Winner’s profile

Horses with a stalking or closing style have been most successful in the Summer Stakes, as the long stretch run on the E.P. Taylor turf course lends itself to horses coming from off the pace. There are plenty of possible front-runners in the field (before scratches) including Kentucky-based (4) FIRST RESORT, another Godolphin runner but trained by Eoin Harty. First Resort, second in the Saratoga Special (G2) on the dirt on Aug. 10 is cross-entered in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

The Godolphin/Appley entrant this year is (9) AL QUDRA, a winner twice in five races. He won the Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot in his most recent start over fellow Summer entrant (10) NEW CENTURY. The fourth-place finisher, a colt named Brian, came back to win a stakes race. Al Qudra has a versatile running style while New Century has been showing a bit more early speed in his first four career starts.

Strong local contingent

The local two-year-old males are a solid group and they could give the imposing European pair a challenge. (6) CAIRO CAPER won the Soaring Free Stakes at seven furlongs on the turf on Aug. 23 for top two-year-old trainer Nathan Squires. In that race, in which he earned a decent 76 Beyer Speed Figure, he edged speedster Dream On while Coolcollected finished third. The latter is listed as having been gelded since that race.

Trainer Kevin Attard will send out recent maiden winner (12) DEWOLF, who looked strong in that victory on the turf, and Chiefswood Stable is represented by its homebred colt (13) FORTY N FIVE, a maiden winner on the Tapeta last time over another Summer entrant, (8) SPECIAL SESSION.

Wagering Strategy

The Summer is race nine on Saturday and the first leg of the late Pick 4 wager which also includes the Woodbine Mile (G1).

You can only get a firm hold on handicapping this race once the scratches are in on Saturday morning, but either European colt figures to have the best chance to win. If you are playing a Pick 4, there are two possible key horses in the second and third legs of the bet which will allow you to use more horses in the Summer and final race of the bet.

In the Summer, play a $2 Exactor 8 / 5, 6, 9 = $6

Here is a possible Pick 4 play to try:
Race 9: 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 7
Race 12: 1, 2, 5
$1 base bet = $18.00

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!

Last 10 Winners of the Summer Stakes (G1)
Year Horse Jockey Trainer Notes

2023 Carson’s Run, Dylan Davis, Christophe Clement 1:35.70 – 3rd start 3-to-1
2022 Mysterious Night (IRE), William Buick, Charlie Appleby 1:34.98 – won Boutin in France 85
2021 Albahr (GB), Frankie Dettori, Charlie Appleby 1:35.77 81 – 5th start 3 wins coming in
2020 Gretzky The Great, Kazushi Kimura, Mark E. Casse 1:34.53 4th start 82
2019 Decorated Invader, Irad Ortiz Jr., Christophe Clement 1:36.34 3rd start 77
2018 Fog of War, Javier Castellano, Chad C. Brown 1:33.90 2nd start 77
2017 Untamed Domain, Joe Bravo Graham Motion 1:34.73 4th start 81 2nd Breeders’ Cup
2016 Good Samaritan, Joel Rosario, William Mott 1:34.38 – 2nd start 92 3rd Breeders’ Cup
2015 Conquest Daddyo, Joe Bravo, Mark E. Casse 1:36.61 local
2014 Conquest Typhoon, Patrick Husbands, Mark E. Casse 1:41.10 local