So, can we make it three winning weeks in a row? Two weeks ago, of course, racing rules resulted in a pick-5 pickup of $1,918 for a wheel that cost you just $19.20. And last week, although the two keys in a pick-5 wheel suffered troubled trips and didn’t win, if you boxed the four horses in each of the other three legs in superfectas for $24 each, you won $170 for one superfecta and $602 for the other.
What do the rules say about tomorrow’s races 2 to 6 at Woodbine?
- Race 2, 7-furlong non-winners of two races: Regular readers will recognize this nw2L race condition as a possible chaotic race. That means you may consider taking all horses in a pick-3 wheel for example. But this is also a 7-furlong specialist race and #2 and #4 have the highest 7-furlong speed numbers of 79 and 81 in their past performances. Note that #4 is 15-1.
- Race 3, maiden optional claimer: The most likely winner is a class-dropper from maiden special weight and those two horses are #4 and #7. Note that #7 finished third last time in a “key” race where three horses from that race won their next starts. That’s huge. Note, too, that the trainer of #3 is hot-hot-hot with second-time two-year-olds, scoring five wins in 11 such instances.
- Race 4, 7-furlong maiden turf allowance: #3 Periwinkle exits a stakes race where she finished third and #7 Scat Girl is the only horse who raced in a 7-furlong specialist race and had a rather troubled trip. Also, note she has the highest Tomlinson turf breeding figure of 389.
- Race 5, 7-furlong maiden optional claimer: #4 Herethereverywhere has the lowest added-up number of 4 and has a 60 speed figure at 7 furlongs which is reasonable for two-year-olds. #3 and #5 have the next-lowest added-up numbers of 9 and also are dropping in class. Add #11 because DRF pro pick analyst Pete Shewchuk likes the first-time starter for some reason.
- Race 6, maiden optional claimer: #1,4,5,7 have low added-up numbers and DRF’s main man at Woodbine, Ron Gierkink, likes first-time starter #9. Also, #3 (8-1) has a bullet workout after her debut in August where the filly hopped at the start, loomed four wide in the stretch and ran evenly. I love “evenly.” It means to me the horse wasn’t all-out. Watch out!
20-cent pick-5 wheel: 2/3,4,7/3,7/3,4,5,9,11/1,3,4,5,7,9 (1 x 3 x 2 x 5 x 6 = 180 divided by 5 = $36). A 20-cent pick-3 wheel in races 2 to 4, taking all horses in the often-chaotic nw2L race: ALL8/.3,4,7/3,7 (8 x 3 x 2 = 48 divided by 5 = $9.60). Think about boxing horses in triactors and superfectas, too! A 20-cent box of four horses is just $4.80. Five horses is $24.
The Breeders’ Stakes on Sunday: The three main rules to consider are (1) who has shown ability in 1 ½-mile races (2) who has best in-the-money record (3) who has quickest closing fractions in turf route races. The Breeders’ Stakes, of course, is the third leg of the Canadian Triple Crown.
~ by Ivan Bigg
