Bettor’s Edge #94: Build Up Your Bankroll for the Breeders’

Grr! It’s time to get aggressive and build up our bankrolls for Breeders’ Cup play a week away. The $12 pick-5 wheel below on races 2 to 6 at Woodbine tomorrow has a legitimate shot, I believe, and I really like the superfecta play in race 3. It gives a player a chance at a nice pick-up at minimal cost if something crazy happens in a couple of positions.

Race 2, turf route claimer: Love turf routes because the math works so well (computing closing fractions). The best in this race are 2,4,5,8,9 with #2 Last Call being the fastest closer. Others are close.
Race 3, maiden optional claimer for two-year-olds: Yeah, baby races have been a crap-shoot, but this race seems to have a key, #7 Conacher, because he has early speed and is dropping in class. He dropped to $25,000 from $40,000 and has the highest E speed (88) that should have him on the lead with others unable to run him down. The superfecta is very playable, too, I believe, because a longshot may catch the obvious favourite and #4 Charted Map should be closing late to finish third or fourth because he showed early speed in a route race. So the recommended superfecta wheels are: 7-ALL-4-ALL and 7-A-A-4 and A-7-4-A and A-7-A-4. Will be surprised if one of those wheels doesn’t win.
Race 4, $7,500 claimer: Uh-oh! It’s a bottom-level claimer, but #5 Aim for the Sky emerges as a key because he raced in a SOC (starter optional claimer) in his last start and this straight claimer is a lot easier. #7 Determined Fury also appears to be a contender since he’s dropping from $25,000, but I must admit to being suspicious about the big class drop. I frankly wouldn’t claim him with your money.
Race 5, maiden turf allowance for two-year-olds: A great 12-horse betting race. #6 Exington (5-1) and #10 Will Then (10-1) jump off the page for me because they raced at the very difficult Kentucky Downs. Add #12 Beautiful Crazy (7-2) because she has the highest Tomlinson turf breeding figure of 402 and her 20 per cent jockey, Rafael Hernandez, appears to have chosen her over another horse that also has a shot.
Race 6, another maiden baby race: #5,6,7,8 appear to be the main contenders, #5 because Hernandez sticks with her, #6 because she’s dropping in class from a maiden special weight condition, #7 because leading rider Sahin Civaci finished second with her last time and favours her over #8, but I’m adding #8 anyway because she almost won in a front-running effort.

So here’s your mere $12 ticket which, I must admit, I feel pretty comfortable with. It’s a 20-cent wheel of 2,4,5,8,9/7/5/6,10,12/5,6,7,8 (5 x 1 x 1 x 3 x 4 = 60 divided by 5 = $12).

Last Week

Last week’s recommended pick-5 ticket turned out to be unplayable because the key horse was scratched. But did you notice in race 8 — the chaotic non-winners of two races condition — that the longest shot on the board at 49-1, Awasef, won the race and the second-longest shot at 44-1 finished fourth, setting up a 20-cent superfecta that paid $2,935. And I wonder if the player who took down the entire pick-6 pool of $12,790 for a 20-cent ticket might have taken “all” in that nw2L race simply because anything can happen in that race condition.