So the big enticement in tomorrow’s Woodbine card is the mandatory payout of the Power Pick 6 that should reach $1 million or more. And wouldn’t it be nice if we can hit it for $19.20 just as we hit the pick-5 in September for the same amount that put $1,918 into your pocket if you played it.
Maybe $19.20 is just the right amount after last week in which a $7.20 pick-5 missed just one leg because I didn’t think you would want to spend up to $30 on it. But if you DID spend $25.20 — by including the race I suggested was an “all” leg (1 x 1 x ALL7 x 6 x 3) — and cashed a ticket for $874, congratulations. Tell me you weren’t impressed by the fact that the $7.20 ticket keyed two races — with a 10-1 morning line horse in one — and had the $29 winner of another winning leg. Lots of excitement for a few toonies, eh? And that was a very, very tricky sequence.
Okay, let’s see if a $19.20 ticket — based as usual on betting rules — will make you and my ASD betting group happy tomorrow:
- RACE 5, maiden allowance: Added-up numbers gives the edge to #1 War Signal (who has an added-up number of six). A slight concern is the fact the two-year-old filly is stretching out to a route for the first time. That’s why I also need #9 D’aurum who didn’t get to show her closing ability last time because the pace was dawdling. I’m hoping for an honest pace tomorrow.
- RACE 6, 7-furlong maiden allowance: A favourite specialist distance should have #1,3,4 closing on speedball #5, the likely favourite WHICH I’M NOT ADDING because I don’t trust horses off a long layoff coming back to race one more time before the end of the meet. Lots of red flags on that one despite DRF Pro Pick specialists Ron Gierkink and Pete Shewchuk picking her to win.
- RACE 7, allowance optional claiming, nw2L: This race condition is often chaotic but what about taking just the two horses who have the leading jockeys, Sahin Civaci and Rafael Hernandez, riding horses #2 and #5 that normally have been ridden by Leo Salles, who is serving a suspension.
- RACE 8, Valedictory Stakes at 1 ½-miles: #4 Get Smokin won at this distance before in gate-to-wire fashion, so why can’t he do it again, especially since he’s dropping in from a Grade 1 stakes? If he wavers, the edge goes to the horse that has a perfect four-for-four in the money finishes — #8 Loose Wire. Then again, it could be a cavalry charge. Maybe crossed fingers will get you through this leg.
- RACE 9, 7-furlong allowance optional claiming: Everyone’s going to key #8 Earhart, hoping she’ll wire the field as she did in her debut race. But her 80 speed figure at 7 furlongs is trumped by #6 who has 92. I’m still going to key Earhart but you may wish to play against her in pick-4 or pick-3 tickets. There’s value in that.
- RACE 10, $7,500 claiming: The usual rule is to look for horses that have dropped into a straight claiming race after racing in STARTER races which are 3,6,11 and add #9 which has the biggest E speed of 81 in her last race.
So your 20-cent pick-6 wheel is 1,9/1,3,4/2,5/4,8/8/3,6,9,11 (2 x 3 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 4 = 96 divided by 5 = $19.20).
Enjoy a rum and eggnog on me if you win. Which I suddenly have a hankering for — so guess who’s heading to the grocery and liquor stores…
~ by Ivan Bigg
