Bettor’s Edge #19: 'Rule' Horse Finishes Second at 16-1 in Plate

So did #1 Hall of Dreams’ second-place finish in the Queen’s Plate at 16-1 make believers out of some of you? In Friday’s Bettor’s Edge Special, you were told Hall of Dreams was a “rule” horse for the 1 ¼-mile Queen’s Plate because he had the best closing fraction at 1 1/8-mile in winning his maiden race. In the Plate, he was beaten only by the popular filly, Moira, who had won the Oaks by many lengths and we didn’t know how good she could be. A $10 exactor on the pair would have netted you $320 and the $1 triactor with Sir for Sure, which Friday’s column also mentioned could be there, paid $200.

Opinion-wise, Hall of Dreams wasn’t a stand-out but rules are rules. And it was humorous to have a player who’s near the top of the Handicapper of the Year standings at Assiniboia Downs bet me that Hall of Dreams wouldn’t finish in the money. Pay up, buster! LOL.

The result of the Queen’s Plate should set you up for the Kentucky Derby and other 1 ¼-mile races where computing 1 1/8-mile fractions points out the contenders. The advantage you have, too, is that most players would rather push a peanut across the room with their noses than calculate fractions. That fact gives you much higher odds than you otherwise would get.

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And how did other “rule” horses perform on the day?

Race 1: Housebuilder won this maiden race with low added-up numbers in his previous two starts
Race 2: First-time-starter, #6 Whimsical, surprised at odds of 20-1. This column missed the 5f works rule.
Race 3: Hazelbrook won as one of three mentioned in Friday’s column.
Race 4: #1 Gaston won after wide trip in his previous race, as mentioned in Friday’s column. Boxing the four mentioned horses at a cost of $24 would have netted you $266.
Race 5: Best closing-fraction horse on the turf was scratched (#12).
Race 6: Chaos ruled in this MSW race. Friday’s column wasn’t even close.
Race 7: Dead-on. Only one horse was a 1 3/8-mile specialist, #6 Theregoesjojo, and he won.
Race 8: High in-the-money horse won as expected, #2 Filo Di Arianno
Race 9: Stakes race which is not a strong suit for this columnist. One of two mentioned horses finished third.
Race 11: Called this an “all” race (maiden optional claiming race filled with class droppers). #1 won at 4-1.
Race 12: One of four mentioned horses won. Was a too-close-to-call race.
Race 13: Taken off the turf with a bunch of scratches.

All in all, it wasn’t a bad handicapping day. Not all rules ruled, of course. There were tricky legs in between stand-out legs — which made vertical exotics a challenge. But of course, Queen’s Plate Day is all about the Queen’s Plate and predicting a big race by a 16-1 horse made the drive home from a simulcast facility a satisfying one.