The most challenging race condition in racing is non-winners of two races. Anything can happen and often does. So what do you do when you have this condition in your pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s and pick-6s? Take “all” unless you see this kind of horse:
1. A horse that will get a clear lead. Such horses have a better chance of winning the race because other horses lack the gameness to run him down.
2. A horse that’s dropping in class. Generally, a class-dropper will have a significant edge over horses that been racing in the same condition seemingly forever.
But the real value in this tricky condition is in superfecta play – if a horse or two has a propensity to finish second or third. Take race 4 at Woodbine yesterday. #6, Souper River, has three SECONDS from nine starts (33 per cent). Where did he finish? Second – at odds of 14-1. And look at #4, Perfect Crime. He has four THIRDS from 16 starts (25 per cent). Where did he finish? Fourth – at odds of 5-1. So wasn’t it worth a flyer to play these 20-cent superfecta wheels? ALL-6-4-ALL and ALL-6-ALL-4. The 20-cent superfecta of 8-6-5-4 paid $869. See program page here.
The thing to keep in mind is that although the winning horse may be elusive in this race condition, there’s consistency in horses with a fondness for finishing in other positions.
