Handicapping

Bettor’s Edge #68: What Looks Bad Could Be Good – For Your Wallet

You can scoop mega bucks doing what most other players won’t do; also, beware the last four cards at Woodbine.

By: Ivan Bigg | December 11, 2023

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you're listening to an article from canadian thoroughbred.com. bettor’s edge #68: what looks bad could be good – for your wallet by: ivan bigg. your willingness to bet a horse that seems to look terrible in form will separate you from the vast majority of players. and that, of course, is what you want. that’s where the big money is. the guiding words are “seems to look terrible.” a mare named color force seems to have been a bad play in race 4 at woodbine last thursday because she finished ninth and seventh in her previous two starts. but she won thursday’s race at odds of 25-1, resulting in a player winning the entire $32,379 power pick-6 jackpot for a 20-cent ticket. take the time to look at race 4. i want you to see how relatively easy it was to spot and bet the 25-1 mare so you’ll be prepared to capitalize on that kind of angle in future races at other tracks. the race was for $5,000 claimers. but not all $5,000 claimers are equal. there are horses that have raced for $5,000 and horses that have raced—take special note—in aoc $5,000 claimers which is a tougher condition than straight $5,000 claimers. aoc means, of course, allowance optional claimers. looking at race 4, you’ll see that three of the seven horses in the field had a previous start in an aoc race. two horses, #4 color force and #7 endorphin, had multiple races in that classier condition. as it turned out, #7 became the race favourite while the other multiple aoc color force, the horse that was ignored in the betting, won. the third horse that had one start in the aoc $5,000 condition, #9 liplock at 8-1, finished third. the $1 triactor paid almost $440. advertisement scroll to continue with content the biggest payoff for taking note of that 25-1 horse, though, came in the $32k pick-6. this was the only “tough” leg but it was tough only if you failed to appreciate how much classier that aoc condition is when compared to ordinary $5,000 claimers. the winning horses in the six legs (starting in race 3) were: $9.70, $52.30 (the race above), $6.20, $4.70, $14.40 and $7.60. so the other five legs were predictable in the usual way. what all of this should make clear to you is that the only way you’re going to scoop mega bucks is to do what most other players won’t do. and the above example shows you what to do. another way to nab a longshot is to read the “trouble” comments at the end of each line in each horse’s past performances, particularly for horses just starting out. if you see they got off to a slow start in their debut race, put a line through that race and consider adding them to your horizontal wagers. they’ll likely be going off at juicy odds because most bettors dismiss a horse after just one seemingly bad race. this woodbine pick-6 paid $17.68. what? the quirky side of racing is that you never know what kind of racing will erupt on any given day. as noted above, woodbine’s 20-cent power pick-6 jackpot was won on thursday for $32,370 and also yesterday, sunday, for $18,190. but on saturday the pick-6 paid $17.68 when just about every favourite won. the 20-cent pick-4 paid $8.77. not exactly a bankroll you’d take for a night out on the town. as woodbine closes out its meet on thursday through sunday, what should you expect? as i previously mentioned, be wary of horses who haven’t raced for more than five or six weeks. fit horses race about every three to four weeks, sometimes more often. a horse may be entered into a race just because it’s the end of the meet. what matters most is whether horses are “game” and not so much whether they’re dropping in class. a game horse will usually beat a less game classier horse. and remember, all pools must be won on sunday so it may be worthwhile to take a shot at the pick-6 or jackpot hi-5 pools. bets are only 20 cents and you can make quick-pick random bets of five tickets for $1. i’ve seen such tickets connect including one 20-cent hi-5 ticket that won about one-third of a million dollars. even a small slice of that would have you belting out “joy to the world” even before christmas. good luck! &&>

Your willingness to bet a horse that seems to look terrible in form will separate you from the vast majority of players. And that, of course, is what you want. That’s where the big money is. The guiding words are “SEEMS to look terrible.” A mare named Color Force SEEMS to have been a bad play in race 4 at Woodbine last Thursday because she finished ninth and seventh in her previous two starts. But she won Thursday’s race at odds of 25-1, resulting in a player winning the entire $32,379 Power Pick-6 jackpot for a 20-cent ticket.

Take the time to look at race 4. I want you to see how relatively easy it was to spot and bet the 25-1 mare so you’ll be prepared to capitalize on that kind of angle in future races at other tracks.

The race was for $5,000 claimers. But not all $5,000 claimers are equal. There are horses that have raced for $5,000 and horses that have raced—take special note—in AOC $5,000 claimers which is a tougher condition than straight $5,000 claimers. AOC means, of course, allowance optional claimers. Looking at race 4, you’ll see that three of the seven horses in the field had a previous start in an AOC race. Two horses, #4 Color Force and #7 Endorphin, had multiple races in that classier condition. As it turned out, #7 became the race favourite while the other multiple AOC Color Force, the horse that was ignored in the betting, won. The third horse that had one start in the AOC $5,000 condition, #9 Liplock at 8-1, finished third. The $1 triactor paid almost $440.

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The biggest payoff for taking note of that 25-1 horse, though, came in the $32K pick-6. This was the only “tough” leg but it was tough only if you failed to appreciate how much classier that AOC condition is when compared to ordinary $5,000 claimers. The winning horses in the six legs (starting in race 3) were: $9.70, $52.30 (the race above), $6.20, $4.70, $14.40 and $7.60. So the other five legs were predictable in the usual way.

What all of this should make clear to you is that the only way you’re going to scoop mega bucks is to do what most other players won’t do. And the above example shows you what to do. Another way to nab a longshot is to read the “trouble” comments at the end of each line in each horse’s past performances, particularly for horses just starting out. If you see they got off to a slow start in their debut race, put a line through that race and consider adding them to your horizontal wagers. They’ll likely be going off at juicy odds because most bettors dismiss a horse after just one seemingly bad race.

This Woodbine pick-6 paid $17.68. What?

The quirky side of racing is that you never know what kind of racing will erupt on any given day. As noted above, Woodbine’s 20-cent Power Pick-6 jackpot was won on Thursday for $32,370 and also yesterday, Sunday, for $18,190. But on Saturday the pick-6 paid $17.68 when just about every favourite won. The 20-cent pick-4 paid $8.77. Not exactly a bankroll you’d take for a night out on the town.

As Woodbine closes out its meet on Thursday through Sunday, what should you expect? As I previously mentioned, be wary of horses who haven’t raced for more than five or six weeks. Fit horses race about every three to four weeks, sometimes more often. A horse may be entered into a race just because it’s the end of the meet.

What matters most is whether horses are “game” and not so much whether they’re dropping in class. A game horse will usually beat a less game classier horse.

And remember, all pools must be won on Sunday so it may be worthwhile to take a shot at the pick-6 or Jackpot Hi-5 pools. Bets are only 20 cents and you can make quick-pick random bets of five tickets for $1. I’ve seen such tickets connect including one 20-cent Hi-5 ticket that won about one-third of a million dollars. Even a small slice of that would have you belting out “Joy to the World” even before Christmas. Good luck!