Bettor’s Edge #79: Reading a Jockey’s Mind

Q: Why would a 20 per cent jockey leave a horse he’s been winning on to ride a horse that hasn’t raced for several months?

A: Because he knows the horse he has chosen has a better chance of winning than the horse he had been riding.

Duh! Makes sense, doesn’t it? And that’s what jockey Rafael Hernandez did last Saturday in Woodbine’s sixth race. He left #4 for 8-1 longshot #3 Caitlinhergrtness and won easily. Did you take her? See the program page here.

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I shamefully admit to suggesting in last week’s column that you need play only the 7-furlong rule horses in that race in your pick-5 wheel. Wrong. It wasn’t until I had written that column that my betting partner alerted me to what Hernandez had done and what I had overlooked. A 7-furlong rule horse did finish second but obviously not first.

Obviously, this horse was not only a must-play, it was also a horse our betting group at Assiniboia Downs could have KEYED for a bigger pick-up in the pick-5 than the $443 for 20-cents.

But you can be certain I will be paying closer attention to this happening again—which it will. And I’m sure you will be paying attention as well if you haven’t already been. It’s as close as we can get to reading a jockey’s mind.

Okay, let’s see if rules can help us nail tomorrow’s early pick-5 for an outlay of $28.80.

Race 2, turf sprint: This race is a key with #6 Silent Guroo being dropping speed, one of the best bets in racing. The mare set a very quick 122 pace figure in her last race, a $23.500 claimer. Now she races for $15,000. Another horse in this race (#4) beat her last time they raced together but Silent Guroo appears to have increased her early speed.
Race 3, maiden: Adding up where each horse finished last time with each horse’s position at the first call of the previous race has #6 and #7 with the lowest added-up numbers. DRF trackman Ron Gierkink happens to like #6 well enough to pick the filly as his best bet of the day.
Race 4, maiden turf route race: #3 and #10 have the quickest closing fractions in previous turf races and #10 has the lowest added-up numbers of 5 in this maiden race AND has the highest Tomlinson turf rating of 418. Note that #8 has a Tomlinson of 404 if you’re looking for a third horse.
Race 5, maiden race for babies. Take all 12. Woodbine has not been an easy track to ferret out the best first-time starter. If you want to take those whose breeding is rated highest for 5 ½-furlong races, take 1,2,6 and 7.
Race 6, turf route: Not easy. #6 Emerance with 8-1 odds and trained by Mark Casse has the best closing fraction but that was produced last year. #5 Awasef has been racing in stakes races in the UAE and #9 has the highest Equibase speed figure.