Bettor’s Edge #83: Turn Pick-3 Bets Into Your “Cash Cow”

I’m guessing pick-3s are not among your favourite bets. The average pick-3 pool at Woodbine is in the $20K to $30K range, whereas pick-4 and pick-5 pools are more than $100,000. That, to me, makes pick-3s a hidden gem under certain circumstances. The payoffs can be surprisingly big because they don’t get the serious play of pick-4s and pick-5s.

Do you remember what happened a couple of Saturdays ago when horses that went off at odds of 24-1, 3-2 and 2-1 produced a pick-3 that paid $945 for $1? (See my “hunch play” column.). I did a double-take when the price appeared on the TV screen after the race. One of the winners was my best bet of the day and maybe it was yours, too. That huge payoff and others like it shows how the pick-3 can become your cash cow. Here’s how to make it happen:

Zero in on a race that has your most likely winner on the card — a horse you love — and play pick-3s keying that horse in pick-3s with the surrounding races. Again and again you’ll see payoffs that are way more than you’d expect. Maybe it’s because race “specialists” are aiming their fire at pick-4s and pick-5s and ignoring pick-3s. And, take note, I suggest you play bigger wheels — $5 and $10 wheels — on combinations you like a lot. That’s how to really capitalize on your pick-3 play.

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Then while everyone else is whining about missing a leg on their pick-4 or pick-5 tickets, you’ll smugly be patting that bulging bankroll in your pocket or patting yourself on the back for that HPI account bump. I promise.

I still will analyze the early pick-5 in races 2 to 6 in tomorrow’s Woodbine card, but remember there are pick-3 possibilities within that sequence.

Race 2, nw2L claimer: Despite the race condition, #1 Fifty B M G, appears to be a standout because this three-year-old gelding is cutting back to a sprint after showing blazing early speed (144 E pace) and is dropping in class. Call the cops if he doesn’t win.
Race 3, maiden claimer: Very contentious race of first-time or one-time starters. Hunch horse is #4 Down by the Sea (10-1) because the trainer, Sandy McPherson, has a lengthy history (including at Assiniboia Downs) of entering first-time starters at a level he thinks they can win. He’s two-for-four at Woodbine. If you can afford it, take “all” eight in your pick-5.
Race 4, maiden allowance on the turf: #6 Canvas jumps off the page with quick workouts. The three-year-old filly is the best bet of DRF pro-pick analyst Pete Shewchuk. Going more deeply, #7 Enduring with an added-up number of six and trainer Mark Casse and #1 Haley’s Honor with very high pace figures are two possibilities as well.
Race 5, allowance optional claimer: Lots of possibilities but #3 Foolish Games (6-1) comes out of a stakes race with a high 121 pace figure and #5 Souper Sunday (20-1) was claimed out of a difficult “starter” optional claimer. Starter means “watch out.” Only taking “all” horses will guarantee your getting past this leg of the pick-5, however.
Race 6, nw2L claimer on the turf: You need speed which is #7 Just On Time (6-1), you need class droppers which are #5 and #6 and you need a claimed horse (#4). Also, at 8-1 is #9 Lady Wellington who fits the versatility rule of having shown early pace two races back and did the reverse in her last race, closing furiously from 10th to finish third.

So the cross-your-fingers cheapo pick-5 ticket for a paltry $6 is 1/4/1,6,7/3,5/4,5,6,7,9 and your better-chance $64 ticket is 1/all 8/6/all 8/4,5,6,7,9. They’re both 20-cent wheels.

~ by Ivan Bigg