We horseplayers love a challenge so tomorrow’s card at Woodbine should have us licking our chops. There are 13- and 14-horse fields and head-scratching decisions to be made in two stakes races in which trainer Mark Casse has half the starters. Which of his mounts is best? In fact, this top trainer has 31 horses racing in the 12-race card.
Let’s see if racing rules can help us unravel what will happen in the early pick-5:
- Race 2, two-year-old fillies stretching out to 1/16-mile on the turf: #9 Keytothepark (3-1) has the highest Equibase speed figure at 6-furlongs, #6 Aristella (8-1) has the best closing fraction in a turf route race at Saratoga, a more difficult track than Woodbine. #11 Spun Around understandably tired in her debut race at 7 furlongs after showing blazing 105 pace. Can she conserve that speed for a late move to finish underneath in a superfecta? Horses with the highest Tomlinson turf breeding figures are #8 (7-2) with 379 and #10 (10-1) with 377.
- Race 3, maiden optional claiming: Four horses are dropping in class from Maiden Special Weight #4 (3-1), #6 (10-1), #9 (4-1) and #10 (20-1). #6,9 and 10 have had just one start which, as you know, you can often just put a line through. #6 comes from the difficult Kentucky Downs where she raced for a $170K purse. Watch out for #2 (5-1) with added up numbers of 4 and #7 who is likely to be closing late after having blinkers removed after showing early speed in her first two lifetime races.
- Race 4, turf route race: Is #4 Whisper Not (5-2) a key in your horizontal pick plays? This seven-year-old gelding has by far the best closing fraction two races ago at Gulfstream Park. He might have been entered too high ($50K) in his first race at Woodbine where he finished sixth; now he has been dropped to $32K. Have a care, too, for #2 Onenightstandards (3-1) off a claim. This gelding is the Best Bet of DRF’s Pete Shewchuk. #7 comes from a “starter” condition which is usually tough.
- Race 5, stakes race for two-year-old fillies: Eight of the 13 horses are trained by Mark Casse who has won this race seven times. His #7 And One More Time (20-1) comes out of a key race where several horses who finished behind her came back to win. The horse to beat, though, is #13 Mountain Breeze (5-2) who hails from England where she has a record of 5-2-2-0, three of them stakes races.
- Race 6, Ontario Matron Stakes: You know the drill: Who has the best in-the-money record? #10 Sabatini (8-1) with 4 of 5, #8 Fashionably Fab (4-1) with 11 of 14 and #5 Blueberry Fields (20-1) with 9 of 12, although this gray mare has never raced in a stakes race.
So what is a 20-cent pick-5 wheel that has a reasonable chance of scoring? 6,8,9,10/2,4,6,7,9,10/4/7,13/8,10. That’s 4 x 6 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 96 divided by 5 = $19.20.
Results of the Previous Two Columns
Well, the Prince of Wales Stakes, the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, played out as predicted—chaotically—because you couldn’t tell which horse(s) would handle Fort Erie’s dirt track after racing on Woodbine’s synthetic track. Most players guessed wrong. Their top two picks finished out of the money. The top four finishers had odds of 9-1, 6-1, 6-1 and 8-1. #2 Vitality dug in from the middle of the pack to win going away. Obviously loved the dirt! Horses that the Bettor’s Edge Special column had suggested for a superfecta play finished second, third and fourth; the winner wasn’t among them. If you found a reason to bet #2, congrats!
The picks in last Friday’s Bettor’s Edge column performed better, with two horses I suggested wheeling second and third in race 7 actually finishing second and third. In the 7-furlong second race, the horse with the highest speed figure at that distance won. In race 3, the three horses who had been racing in the STARTER optional claimer class and had dropped into a straight claiming race finished first, second and fourth.
~ by Ivan Bigg
