Are you still licking your betting wounds because 1-5 Paramount Prince lost the Durham Cup last Saturday? Paramount Prince certainly was a play because he fit the stakes rule of in-the-money finishes. His record was 11-for-12. But look who won — Dresden — the other ‘rule’ horse, because that 10-1 horse had an in-the-money record of 6-for-6. So you shouldn’t have been that surprised. That was the horse I played despite my OPINION that Paramount Prince was a slam-dunk winner. That’s the value of having rules; they trump opinions.
The pick-5 play suggested in last week’s column at a cost of $24 (reduced from $36 because there was a scratch) went nowhere because the three races for two-year-olds turned out to be inscrutable. (Winners paid $58, $11.80 and $16.90.) If you played superfecta boxes of horses suggested in races 5 and 6, you would have broken even because one won and the other lost. So it turned out to be a $24 losing day. Sigh. No hat-trick of winning weeks. But there’s always tomorrow – as in the early pick-5 at Woodbine in races 2 to 6 but we have two two-year-old races to get past again:
- Race 2, starter optional claimer: Horses with the best record in “starter” races points to #6 Echo With Laughter because the 2-1 morning-line gelding beat three next-out winners. Going deeper, #7 (12-1) is cutting back to a sprint after showing early speed in route races and #3 (6-1) with 20 per cent jockey Rafael Hernandez aboard is dropping from tougher conditions. It’s a tricky race.
- Race 3, maiden optional claimer at 7-furlongs for two-year-olds: Another tricky race. The only horse with 7-furlong experience is #2 Serious Green at 10-1. #1 Rhaenyra (2-1) is the progeny of 15 per cent debut sire Reload and #9 Kee’s Flatter (6-1) has a bullet workout, the fastest of 83. Considering the upsets in last week’s baby races, perhaps wheeling “all” horses is the way to go.
- Race 4, turf route claimer: The horse with the quickest closing fraction is #1 Flying Black (20-1) but that was at Gulfstream in April. More recent fast closers are #4,7,13.
- Race 5, stakes dash for two-year-olds: #6 Dare to Breeze (8-1), the only horse to have raced in a graded stakes (at Saratoga) has the highest pace figure so she could wire this 5-furlong race. #2 Bullet (2-1) has the highest speed figure in the race. That was two races ago. In her last race, in which she finished sixth, she apparently suffered some breathing distress, coughing after the race. She should bounce back.
- Race 6, grade 3 turf route race: #14 Truly Quality appears to be your key in the pick-5 and pick-4 since he’s a turf route specialist with 8 in-the-money finishes in 8 races. No other horse is close to that stat.
Your on-the-cheap 20-cent pick-5 wheel: 3,6,7/1,2,9/1,4,7,13/2,6/14 (3 x 3 x 4 x 2 x 1 = 72 divided by 5 = $14.40). Degree of confidence in this ticket: 20 per cent. I have the most confidence in races 4 and 6. Maybe playing 20-cent pick-3 wheels taking “all” horses in a couple of legs is a worthwhile wager. Good luck!
~ by Ivan Bigg
